[Basic] Bolshevik Mafia - TOWN WINS

[Sili Quirrels]

never peeking wolves is a mistake for certain, though

 

if you peek 4 villas who are alive on d4, you almost always win the game.

[monstrman]

if every player in the game has all villager peeks except one with a wolf peek guess who dies a lot

[Sili Quirrels]

putting aside how hard that is.

[Cory Caboose]

Manbat:

[3/30/2016 1:59:19 PM] Cory Curren: Hallia isn't necessarily the lynch not does she have to be

[3/30/2016 1:59:28 PM] Cory Curren: That's the thing about seer peeks

[3/30/2016 1:59:56 PM] Cory Curren: Hallia is always never making it to endgame now, so it's not a priority to lynch her immediately

[3/30/2016 2:01:11 PM] Cory Curren: There is a player on POG named SirRawrsALot

[3/30/2016 2:01:21 PM] Cory Curren: He was seer in a 17er.

[3/30/2016 2:02:06 PM] Cory Curren: He peeked a wolf n0 because you choose your peek in a 17er. Didn't claim, but pushed the wolf, vanillager lynched, vanillager NKed

[3/30/2016 2:02:58 PM | Edited 2:05:03 PM] Cory Curren: Peeked a second wolf n1. Pushes, holds claim because others leaving good cover. One of his peeked wolves get lynched by someone else. That player gets NKed as he peeks wolf 3.

[3/30/2016 2:04:05 PM] Cory Curren: He leads a mislynch on d3 on his best guess for the last wolf but again holds his claim bc good cover. Another vanillager dies at night. He peeks wolf 4, hardclaims d4.

[3/30/2016 2:04:21 PM] Cory Curren: One of the greatest seer performances ever

[3/30/2016 2:06:27 PM] Cory Curren: Moral: once you peek a wolf, make sure it'll be obvious contigent on your flip but don't hard claim it, the further you get the better. Try to hit a different wolf because that wolf always get lynched if you flip

[Eldrick4221]

I don't have any problem sharing the QT

[Sili Quirrels]

if every player in the game has all villager peeks except one with a wolf peek guess who dies a lot

 

the seer?

[Cory Caboose]

Manbat you are missing an important caveat which is:

"do not peek a wolf as seer cover unless you know what you are doing."

 

There are times it is practical, but it shouldn't be a part of anyone's initial strategy.

[monstrman]

that's why you don't do it obviously

[monstrman]

yeah I mean don't be a hero I guess

 

but a good rule of thumb is that in your greys there are wolves both as seer and as villager

 

there's a reason they're grey

[Sili Quirrels]

certain wolves are so obvious you can safely 'peek' them.

 

i'd like to think no one is grey forever.

[Eldrick4221]

certain wolves are so obvious you can safely 'peek' them.

hi

[Eldrick4221]

Lol. Record of what you said before the edit :)

[Eldrick4221]

Some people are grey forever to me. I simply fail at reading them.

[Sili Quirrels]

 

certain wolves are so obvious you can safely 'peek' them.

hi

 

omg wolfy pop-in.

[Sili Quirrels]

I only have vague reasons why I knew you were a wolf. Sorry Eldrick.

 

Hope lenlo gave you a good answer.

[Cory Caboose]

This is one of them right?

 

@BFG:

 

 

 

Here is a good example of a good time to SHC yourself (this is a POG turbo featuring yours truly as the wolf SHCing themselves): http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/59/puzzles-other-games/drunk-mason-life-turbo-game-thread-1499076/

 

There's a checklist of things you need to be aware of before doing something like SHCing yourself.

 

1) Am I reasonably confident I know who the seer is? Not knowing the identity of the seer is a giant liability because...

 

2) Is the seer going to peek me? Literally the worst thing you can do as a wolf is SHC yourself and then get peeked because you are forgoing your opportunity to hit the seer outright with literally zero benefit and you're probably going to lose.

 

In the game above, me and my wolf partner correctly identified the seer on d1 and I was their strongest villager read outside of their peek, so I knew I wasn't in danger of getting peeked.

 

In this game, Eldrick was Lenlo's #1 wolf read most of the game, but Lenlo did not peek Eldrick night 1, opting for someone in his ~nulls instead (Hallia). Eldrick was a likely d3 lynch as well, so Eldrick can be pretty confident he isn't going to get peeked that night - Lenlo is almost certainly going to resolve within the ~nulls. So check.

 

3) Do I have plausible deniability for making it to must lynch? This is an important one, as people usually tinfoil on SHC players the moment someone else not as "clear" as the SHC dies first.

 

In the turbo, it's very simple. Going into d2, there are seven players alive, which means that I need have plausible deniability for two kills. Considering the seer and his n0 villager peek were both alive, I had no problem whatsoever. Of course the seer and a confirmed villager are going to die before the SHC, so I had a free ride to f3.

 

In this game, Eldrick I don't think would have had an issue. With Lenlo and BFG clear and Lenlo potentially getting another peek, he had a free ride to f5 - and to f3 considering Lenlo would peek Thane - and wouldn't have had an issue here.

 

I still think being villagery is the best way to go as per how to avoid getting lynched as a wolf, but SHC is a cute trick to consider now and then. When I did it, I was just trying to have fun and do something I hadn't done before, but I've seen it win games for the wolves when done in the proper situation.

 

[Eldrick4221]

I only have vague reasons why I knew you were a wolf. Sorry Eldrick.

You're excused on the grounds that you subbed in late. It is SO much easier to read people when they have already been established.

[Cory Caboose]

Wolf SHC is one of those things that works a lot more than you think, but only because people do it like 1% of the time. If people did it 10% of the time, it wouldn't work much at all I think.

 

And the reason people won't do it more than 1% of the time is that in 99% of situations you are better off gunning for the seer :P

[Eldrick4221]

Hope lenlo gave you a good answer.

He answered?

[Sili Quirrels]

 

I only have vague reasons why I knew you were a wolf. Sorry Eldrick.

You're excused on the grounds that you subbed in late. It is SO much easier to read people when they have already been established.

 

 

Very possible I attempt to mislynch you next time. haha.

[Sili Quirrels]

 

Hope lenlo gave you a good answer.

He answered?

 

Still have him on ignore. I have to refresh and click on his posts to read them, which tbf I do.

[Sili Quirrels]

Speaking of which...

[Eldrick4221]

For D2, I really wanted to lynch the Wolf but I also really didnt want to reveal cause I figured Hallia would have cleared me for that BFG slip. I dunno why I didnt die N3, like even if I wasnt Seer I feel I was a good kill just because I was active and one of the few people consistently telling people to shut up and win.

You literally didn't die because it would point at me.

[Eldrick4221]

I've never put anyone on ignore. I don't know what it's like.

[Sili Quirrels]

 

You literally didn't die because it would point at me.

 

This feels like something Cory will respond to lol.

 

Afaict if you are villagery it does not matter who you kill.