[Basic] Supernatural Mafia ~ Game Over ~ Town Wins!!!

[Nynaeve]

Lily... when you're around... let me know what your character is, please.

[Nynaeve]

On a serious note.... I can't fathom why, as scum, Thane would counter Lily's claim. Eldrick doing it could be him getting ahead of himself and screwing up. But Thane had time to read everything and come in with a plan or just throw his hands and concede. He'd know Eldrick is getting lynched next and then... even if we bought his claim? we lynch Lily and immediately lynch him.... game over. We do have a spare mislynch after all. So what's the point of this? He would have had more luck trying to sway us to look into Laine and Pral.

 

But to even consider the option of Thane being truthful it would mean scum basically giving up most of their team to have one carry them over the threshold.... when they didn't have to do that.... But at the same time it would explain why they didn't target Lily N1. IMO her overreaction over Turin/BFG allegedly naming her cop should have made it fairly obvious.... but they shot Turin instead. I also tend to believe they prolly didn't target her N2 (because of Eldrick rushing in with the cop claim). Not shooting her could be for two reasons.... either they didn't want to confirm her guilty on BG... or this whole thing is a gambit and she is scum.

 

I think Lily's claim prolly looks more legit and cleaner, but at the same time I can't think of a reason Thane would counterclaim her as scum... a freaking second counterclaim that has nothing to gain???. but I could definitely see why she and Eldrick would do what they did....... they both rushed to do it JUST as day started. Like literally minutes after the day started. But the only way this would work is if there was no cop..... otherwise same applies. ie we lynch Thane... he flips cop.... and that outs Lily.

 

 

 

Honestly none of this makes sense. 

[Nynaeve]

I just don't understand why.... Thane walking into the thread with Eldrick/Lily counterclaiming each other... and BG flipping scum.... come in and go... hey guys! I'm a cop too.

[Nynaeve]

I mean he would see that Lily pawned Eldrick so much that he just comes clean. Why would he think for a second that people are gonna buy his claim over hers?

[Nynaeve]

My concern is that we might be dealing with 4 scum in this game and not 3. At which case the calculations might defer and there might be something I'm missing.

[Nynaeve]

There is one thing that Lily said to me that I really dislike.

 

I'm not good enough at mafia to play you. You know that. 

 

I think she said something similar to me once when she was playing me. And it's giving me an overall bad feeling.

[Nynaeve]

Maybe I'm overthinking it. I dunno. Maybe people just make dumb choices which is why I don't get it. But it's really bothering me now.

[Nynaeve]

I know scum get false claims and all that, so Thane's character claim is not really relevant. But I'd still like to know Lily's character.

[Nynaeve]

Think about it. Lily/Eld go head in head. Eld practically claims scum. We lynch BG and he flips roleblocker scum, and basically "confirms" her guilty

 

Who in their right mind shows up after that and claims cop?  No one. Ever. 

 

 

There's a fourth deep wolf, imo. And Lily is playing us.

7 player (3 scum, 4 town) - we lynch Eldrick. NK goes through.

5 players (2 scum, 3 town) - LYLO. We mislynch Lily over Thane?  Game over.

[Nynaeve]

Thane over Lily*

[Nynaeve]

This only works if there are 4 scum, btw. If there were 3? It wouldn't make sense for Thane or Lily to false claim.... cause one mislynch leads to the confirmation of the other's alignment and either way town wins.

[Nynaeve]

Remember how eldrick went on about there not being a roleblocker in a basic game?

Remember how eldric went on about there being 3 scum in a 12 plaeyers game?

 

Yep.

[Nynaeve]

Alternatively I suppose there could be 4 scum and Thane is playing us. But honestly... I don't see how he could ever think that would work. EVER. It's not being ballsy, even. It's being thick.

[Nynaeve]

Just make sure you explore all the possibilities. Think about it. Go back and reread. The answer is there, we just need to piece it together. Would like to hear where everyone else is at irt this.

[Pralaya]

The problem with that is that if there are only 4 town left - one doc, one cop, i am vt. Even if the other one is a PR, there isn't enough firepower in town to handle 4 scum. 

[Nynaeve]

Oh and if Eldrick is being legit about them shooting me on N2?  I'm pretty sure that at night time my scum list was Eldrick, BG and Thane. So that's something to think about as well.

[Nynaeve]

The problem with that is that if there are only 4 town left - one doc, one cop, i am vt. Even if the other one is a PR, there isn't enough firepower in town to handle 4 scum. 

 

Lets agree that one of Thane/Lily is lying. If there are 3 scum? None of this makes sense. Because town has a mislynch. So we're gonna find out which of them is full of it. So what was the point to false claim?

 

UNLESS.... both Lily and Eldrick didn't pay attention to there not being a NK in the scene, which is possible. They both claimed.... shortly after realized... *** me... there was no NK. And then had to keep going with it cause they had no choice. And Thane simply claimed because... he is the cop.

[Nynaeve]

But even if Lily and Eldrick thought it was LYLO... they were basically serving us a scum lynch on a silver platter... no matter which of them we ended up trusting. 

[Nynaeve]

NONE OF THIS MAKES SENSE TO ME

[Nynaeve]

The big point against them is how they seemed to be on exactly at the same time and claimed with mere minutes between each other. Seems a bit too convenient to me. 

[Pralaya]

How about a third party? I can't think of scenarios but just putting it there.

[Nynaeve]

We need to go through BG and Eldrick's content thoroughly and analyze it. Was BG pushing Thane really distancing or was it really just him pushing a townie? we need to look into this and see what gives. Also BG/Lily interaction should prove to be telling as well. Lily's main point about BG was that he said Turin was his kryptonite... and she decided that was the reason Turin got killed. If throwing BG under the bus was always the plan? Then he could have said it just to provide her for a reason.

[Nynaeve]

How about a third party? I can't think of scenarios but just putting it there.

 

It's entirely possible. We're pretty much screwed if there is one, though. Because I wouldn't know where to start.

[Nynaeve]

Honestly this seemed pretty straightforward to me up until a bit ago when I asked myself a very simple question. Why would Thane ever come up with a third cop claim?

[Pralaya]

The thing there is again why would Thane claim cop if he is third party. There are lot other PRs to go with that could easily pass :)