[Advanced] Star Wars Mafia

Eldrick4221 · July 2, 2015

I was pondering that today. Wondering if Notbob was actually mafia and that they had 2x extra kills.

Also want to point out that Dice being Laine's peek is not 100%. It is likely, being she changed her opinion of him Day 2, but it is NOT confirmed. She could have just changed her mind. People do that.

She also changed her view on Yates, as Yates brought up. It is POSSIBLE that she viewed him.

That being said, I still believe that she peeked Dice, and won't be lynching him.

Eldrick4221 · July 2, 2015

Also it IS technically past the DL. You guys shouldn't change your vote unless the mod says otherwise. It's just bad form.

csarmi · July 2, 2015

@Eldrick: If Wombo is mafia, who are their partners and why? Do they have any?

As I have been saying for a while now, I don't see there being 5 mafia. I think Wombo is the last one.

It's POSSIBLE that it's Notbob, hiding behind a strongarm role.

NotBob can't be mafia.

We have two extra kills. At least one of those has to come from non-mafia (no way a mafia team gets 2 extra shots).

No one else claimed Vigilante.

This means that

- if NB is mafia, there is an SK out there + NB bussed the hell out of Verb + NB fake claimed Vig as mafia (which is a death sentence when the real Vig, heck, even when an SK counterclaims)

- if NB is SK, he claimed vigilante KNOWING there was another kill out there... that other kill could have come from a Vig (he is dead as soon as that Vig counterclaims).

In short: because we seen two extra kills AND they almost surely came from two different sources, one of those kills must have come from a town!Vig (NB)

csarmi · July 2, 2015

Also it IS technically past the DL. You guys shouldn't change your vote unless the mod says otherwise. It's just bad form.

No it isn't a bad form. The game continues. Obviously the mod can decide to keep the original deadline (and tally there) or give us a new one.

If they keep the original deadline, our votes are definitely invalid but why would that be a problem?

If they give a new deadline, it's best if the game goes on uninterrupted as can be.

csarmi · July 2, 2015

To the extra kills analysis: there would be an outside chance of both kills coming from the same source (SK-NotBob), but even then the Vig claim from him would be like completely crazy. Downright suicidal, in fact. I think he'd want to win as an SK. Getting vigged or CC'd is not the best way to do that.

csarmi · July 2, 2015

So yup, NB is town vigilante.

PLease let me know if there is anything I missed there.

Eldrick4221 · July 2, 2015

@Eldrick: If Wombo is mafia, who are their partners and why? Do they have any?

As I have been saying for a while now, I don't see there being 5 mafia. I think Wombo is the last one.

It's POSSIBLE that it's Notbob, hiding behind a strongarm role.

NotBob can't be mafia.

We have two extra kills. At least one of those has to come from non-mafia (no way a mafia team gets 2 extra shots).

No one else claimed Vigilante.

This means that

- if NB is mafia, there is an SK out there + NB bussed the hell out of Verb + NB fake claimed Vig as mafia (which is a death sentence when the real Vig, heck, even when an SK counterclaims)

- if NB is SK, he claimed vigilante KNOWING there was another kill out there... that other kill could have come from a Vig (he is dead as soon as that Vig counterclaims).

In short: because we seen two extra kills AND they almost surely came from two different sources, one of those kills must have come from a town!Vig (NB)

Right. Which is why he isn't in my PoE. It doesn't make sense for him to be scum.

You asked me who I thought Wombo's teammate could be. Those 2 are the only ones that possibly fit. and Notbob doesn't really fit. He fits about as much as you do.

Do reanswering. If Notbob has a teammate alive, it's Talya. Still say there's only 1 scum left, though.

csarmi · July 2, 2015

@Eldrick - i don't need Laine's peek* to know Dice is town.

*Still love you Laine. You been great.

Eldrick4221 · July 2, 2015

So yup, NB is town vigilante.

PLease let me know if there is anything I missed there.

If he is vig, who shot the other shot N2? He claims it wasn't him.

Eldrick4221 · July 2, 2015

@Eldrick - i don't need Laine's peek* to know Dice is town.

*Still love you Laine. You been great.

It's tinfoil. He's 99% town. We don't know 100%, so it's in essense possible.

csarmi · July 2, 2015

So yup, NB is town vigilante.

PLease let me know if there is anything I missed there.

If he is vig, who shot the other shot N2? He claims it wasn't him.

The mafia, most likely. Maybe an SK. But that's much less likely cause why would that SK holster twice.

csarmi · July 2, 2015

@Eldrick: you have a good analytical mind - please go through the possibilities and let me know what conclusion you get. Just go through a scenarios. Seems to me like something you enjoy doing anyway.

I gotta go work.

csarmi · July 2, 2015

So yup, NB is town vigilante.

PLease let me know if there is anything I missed there.

If he is vig, who shot the other shot N2? He claims it wasn't him.

The mafia, most likely. Maybe an SK. But that's much less likely cause why would that SK holster twice.

@Eldrick: you have a good analytical mind - please go through the possibilities and let me know what conclusion you get. Just go through a scenarios. Seems to me like something you enjoy doing anyway.

I gotta go work.

csarmi · July 2, 2015

So yup, NB is town vigilante.

PLease let me know if there is anything I missed there.

If he is vig, who shot the other shot N2? He claims it wasn't him.

The mafia, most likely. Maybe an SK. But that's much less likely cause why would that SK holster twice.

@Eldrick: you have a good analytical mind - please go through the possibilities and let me know what conclusion you get. Just go through a scenarios. Seems to me like something you enjoy doing anyway.

I gotta go work.

Eldrick4221 · July 2, 2015

So yup, NB is town vigilante.

PLease let me know if there is anything I missed there.

If he is vig, who shot the other shot N2? He claims it wasn't him.

The mafia, most likely. Maybe an SK. But that's much less likely cause why would that SK holster twice.

@Eldrick: you have a good analytical mind - please go through the possibilities and let me know what conclusion you get. Just go through a scenarios. Seems to me like something you enjoy doing anyway.

I gotta go work.

...

You just said mafia wouldn't have 2 shots. That was your defense of Notbob not being mafia.

Mafia killed one. Who killed the other?

Eldrick4221 · July 2, 2015

So yup, NB is town vigilante.

PLease let me know if there is anything I missed there.

If he is vig, who shot the other shot N2? He claims it wasn't him.

The mafia, most likely. Maybe an SK. But that's much less likely cause why would that SK holster twice.

If you were an SK, claiming to be vig, and your shot failed (commuter or doc protect being good reasons for this happening), or you shot the same person mafia did, wouldn't you say you holstered?

It makes more sens to me for Notbob to be SK, but I don't want to worry about that until the mafia is dead and the game hasn't ended,

Eldrick4221 · July 2, 2015

@Eldrick: you have a good analytical mind - please go through the possibilities and let me know what conclusion you get. Just go through a scenarios. Seems to me like something you enjoy doing anyway.

I gotta go work.

It's all speculation at this point, if it wasn't him. Because it means someone is lying about their role.

Eldrick4221 · July 2, 2015

If he's the SK, I would say he shot Heart N3 and Wombo N4.

And being his goal would be to kill all of us, he is pushing for Wombo because he knows they are telling the truth. (They didn't die)

I'm really tempted to not vote Wombo because of this reasoning. I suspect Notbob of being SK, because it explains the kill N2.

Yea. I'm going back to Yates now, just in case Hally extends the DL.

[unvote]

[v]Yates[/v]

I already explained why I think Yates is the smart move today. I still don't like the turnaround from Wombo after Heart's flip. It feels like they were caught in a lie. But it also makes sense from their perspective if they are telling the truth, so I dunno.

Talya · July 2, 2015

[unvote]

Need to think about this Seph made a good case.

csarmi · July 2, 2015

We have two extra kills.

1) Both were made by the wolves. Quite impossible in my book.

2) Both were made by SK. Not exactly impossible, but very, very unlikely:

a) NotBob is that SK. In that case he claimed Vig as an SK. Unreasonable, seeing that it paints him a target to mafia, any Vig would shoot him or counter him and that's game over for an SK. He would wanna win as an SK.

b) Someone else is that SK. In that case, that someone else is hidden and yet they holstered at least twice (or failed at least twice). Very, very unlikely.

3) Both were made by a Vig.

a) NotBob is that Vig. Impossible, he wouldn't lie about that.

b) Someone else is that Vig. Yet NB is not CC'd and not shot. See 2a...

4) The kills were made by two different parties. Yet, one of those kills were claimed on thread (along with a vig claim). The two kills can't be mafia + SK because neither of those parties would dare to claim a kill (not can they fear a vig by default, but also they could be quite sure there IS one seeing another kill out there). So if the two kills came from two different parties, one of those parties is a town!Vig.

QED

So one of those kills were made by a town!Vig. Only way that NB is not that Vig is if Darthe was a 1-shot Vig (shouldn't trigger the universal backup as kill is already spent) and shot Clov N1. So unless we have a good reason to assume Darthe was a Vigilante who shot Clov N1, NotBob is practically guaranteed to be town!Vig.

(this analysis doesn't even take NBV's play into acct btw)

csarmi · July 2, 2015

So yup, NB is town vigilante.

PLease let me know if there is anything I missed there.

If he is vig, who shot the other shot N2? He claims it wasn't him.

The mafia, most likely. Maybe an SK. But that's much less likely cause why would that SK holster twice.

If you were an SK, claiming to be vig, and your shot failed (commuter or doc protect being good reasons for this happening), or you shot the same person mafia did, wouldn't you say you holstered?

It makes more sens to me for Notbob to be SK, but I don't want to worry about that until the mafia is dead and the game hasn't ended,

See my case - but you wouldn't claim a Vig in the first place cause that's a good way to DIE.

Eldrick4221 · July 2, 2015

We have two extra kills.

1) Both were made by the wolves. Quite impossible in my book.

I agree. Quite impossible.

2) Both were made by SK. Not exactly impossible, but very, very unlikely:

a) NotBob is that SK. In that case he claimed Vig as an SK. Unreasonable, seeing that it paints him a target to mafia, any Vig would shoot him or counter him and that's game over for an SK. He would wanna win as an SK.

Claiming Vig as SK is ballsy, but not unheard of. It is a good cover to explain your kills. It does have the risk of being a Vig target, but Claiming Vig as SK or Vig both have the equal amount of risk for being NK'd by Mafia. He did, though.

b) Someone else is that SK. In that case, that someone else is hidden and yet they holstered at least twice (or failed at least twice). Very, very unlikely.

This is possible. Again, may not have holstered. their kill could have been someone already shot, or was blocked (Role-blocker, Doc protect, commute)

3) Both were made by a Vig.

a) NotBob is that Vig. Impossible, he wouldn't lie about that.

Agree here too. If Notbob is Vig, he didn't shoot N2.

b) Someone else is that Vig. Yet NB is not CC'd and not shot. See 2a...

-nod-

4) The kills were made by two different parties. Yet, one of those kills were claimed on thread (along with a vig claim). The two kills can't be mafia + SK because neither of those parties would dare to claim a kill (not can they fear a vig by default, but also they could be quite sure there IS one seeing another kill out there). So if the two kills came from two different parties, one of those parties is a town!Vig.

If there were 2 parties, the second one would have shot Notbob IMO.

QED

So one of those kills were made by a town!Vig. Only way that NB is not that Vig is if Darthe was a 1-shot Vig (shouldn't trigger the universal backup as kill is already spent) and shot Clov N1. So unless we have a good reason to assume Darthe was a Vigilante who shot Clov N1, NotBob is practically guaranteed to be town!Vig.

(this analysis doesn't even take NBV's play into acct btw)

NBV? (I'm guessing Notbob Vig). Takling it into account makes this scenario very unlikely. Notbob claimed Clov's kill. Why would he do that if Darthe shot Clov?

Eldrick4221 · July 2, 2015

My head hurts trying to speculate if Notbob is or isn't SK. Let's not worry about it until we nab another scum. If the game isn't over, then we can come back to this.

csarmi · July 2, 2015

NBV = NB, just typo

If Darthe shot Clov, the mafia knows that AND has Darthe's full claim and character (JANITOR'D). Would be a very safe claim for NB!wolf to get through the whole game.

csarmi · July 2, 2015

By the analysis, NotBob is not an SK. He's also a villager and a vigilante unless Darthe was the 1-shot Vig and Darthe shot Clov. Need to look through D1/N1 for that but prolly impossible both.

[Advanced] Star Wars Mafia

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