[Basic]: Be Nice Mafia

[Sili Quirrels]

For the record this is where I start my tunnel,

 

 

 

Town:

 

me - double-checked my pm. it's confirmed.

 

Clov - demonstrates consistent wherewithal and attention to detail. He's proactive, and shows a healthy level of paranoia for someone of his personality type (far as I can figure).

 

Cass - emulates strong town tinfoily behavior to a tee.

 

Bfg - consistent skepticism, above board enthusiasm, depth of insight. if she continues in a believable way i'll continue to think she's town until my poe get's the better of me.

 

Thane - i reread his posts and definitely get a town vibe, but it's hard to put a finger on why. i guess maybe he's not pushing the angles that would be +ev for scum, his tone is impulsive, and he's a little scatter-brained.

 

Tress - I remember a little of her meta and recall in a cursory way her tone and the types of points she brought up last game. My gut isn't finding any inconsistency to latch onto so I'm putting her here.

 

 

Poe

 

sili - 100% (cannot express this enough)

cass - 90%

thane - 88%

clov - 88%

bfg - 80%

tress - 80%

 

Colored List

 

Sili

Cass

Thane

Clov

Bfg

Tress

Yates

Jmm

 

Ways to parse the group: Cass, Thane, and Clov I consider loose character reads. Yates - I expect impact from his town game, but he never builds a case I think. e.g. He hasn't contributed to my wagon but does nudge it along by insinuating scum/scum partners for me. I regard his content as lacking overall. Take for instance his tinfoil above? Last page I declared bfg a scum lean in one of my  opening posts and he never comments on it.

 

Jmm is ... so apathetic... that I can't even express how... i kind of hope i'm wrong actually, or maybe someone could correct me if i am. Jmm isn't paranoid, scatter-brained, or skeptical, nor is he enthusiastic, run&gun, or tunneling anyone. He is completely apathetic and hasn't offered the thread an iota of actual game content to demonstrate he's read it in any detail. The small points, his posture-driven opening and weird apathy towards my gameplay is just icing on the cake at this point - the problem has become more fundamental: all but two players in this roster are actively hunting for scum and he isn't one of them.

 

 

Last page I declared bfg a scum lean in one of my opening posts and he never comments on it.

I actually did - indirectly. You claim she's a scum lean but you treat her as Town. Do you not recall this discussion?

For example; reconcile this series of posts for me:

BFG enters the game with a reads summary:

So I'll start with the easy stuff, Cass's paranoia seems newish town to me.

Clov's early involvement in the game is also townish from him, although it's been a while since I've seen him as mafia.

Presumably to BFG:

Good start. I concur.

Randomly:

Scum: Bfg, jmm, clov

 

You didn't, as far as I can tell, imply anything like that.

 

This is your page 8 content:

 

 

 

 

 

 

yates, where do i treat bfg like she's lock town?

All of page 7, basically. It sounds like you know her alignment or she knows yours. Just the way you are approaching her questions. I don't know. I'll go into more detail tomorrow. I'm spent.

 

 

I don't associate town Thane with 'guarded' play or words...

Welp. That's the one tell I was hinting at in my Thane post.

What do you make of the fact that Sili is talking to you as if he knows you are Town given your [and his] statement here???

 

<<<deleted>>>

His latest post:

 

Truth. I am very much taking that mindset, especially with Sili, since I tunneled him for a while last game

like, he knows i'm town, otherwise the matter of tunneling me when I'm scum wouldn't be significant to him. Why not tunnel me again, right?

 

Good point, and quoted again so he doesn't miss it.

 

I find it quite curious that Sili only has one vote given that so many people are finding him scummy, but I don't know what to make of it given the size of the game, I think I'll need to sleep on it.

Curious? Couple of thoughts here:
1. Just because Sili is holding a fork, it doesn't mean he stole the cake.
2. It's WAY early in the game.
3. Curse of the small game. I think people tend to be more cautious with votes in small games.

Now I have a Sili-BFG relationship to resolve...

 

 

Initial (obviously weak) leans:

BFG: Town
Sili: Town
Thane: ?Town
Clov: ?Town
Tress: ?Mafia
Yates: ?Mafia
Cass: Mafia

I feel like this is a mostly contrarian list. It will be interesting to see some supporting information.

 

 

 

So tell me where I go wrong.

 

You eschew,

I'm waiting for my scum list to town tell, then I'll start over by adjusting my expectations and rereading.

 

From your quoted excerpts, coded blue. I had bfg as scum by poe. It was not a strong stance and I was looking for reasons to change my mind. I imply this by the quote you left out and my inclusion of clov as a scum lean.

 

The blue also has no real relevance to your initial position.

 

You promised you would go into detail how I treat Bfg as town. The most I think you can say is we cooperate to meet an ends, and that's pretty much all I got from reading thrice. You'll have to help me.

 

EVERYONE??? No, not everyone. I linked you to Sili and Cass to Sili.

 

And clov to sili.

 

I think you're missing the point. The point is linking players to me is a good part of your content, and so I ask, how is insinuating scum partners without case building early day 1 without a single flip conducive to hunting scum?

 

It's pure tinfoil right?

 

Like, say I flip Scum, what are you going to do - lynch bfg because we worked together for a page? From a villager's point of view (e.g. mine) it seems frivolous and maybe destructive depending on the roster's gullibility, because I could very well be in anti-spew and as a matter of fact, scum treating a player like town usually means that player is town.

 

Like jmm has been doing for me.

 

And you say I've been doing for bfg.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You played with Jmm last game? What's your opinion of him this game?

I'll let you know when I have one. I think he's going to be a hard read. Last game I thought he was scummy because he was "completely apathetic" and didn't "offer the thread an iota of actual game content to demonstrate he's read it in any detail." Plus, throughout the entire game he was never really "actively hunting for scum."

Yates, why are you linking everyone to Sili?

EVERYONE??? No, not everyone. I linked you to Sili and Cass to Sili. That's not everyone, that's two people. And I linked you because you were linked. I have a read on Cass that is separate from Sili so she has been successfully decoupled. The interaction between you two is my new shiny object, as per above.

 

 

Looking good for bfg.

[Cass]

Who are you going to look at after me?

Although now the feel of this post is pinging me as slightly sus, I'll play.

 

This is the order I want to look at people in:

 

You

BFG

Sili

Thane

 

My turn. In my position, who would you be looking at next, and why?

[Cass]

And now I'm really off for the rest of the afternoon, GL!

[Sili Quirrels]

 

 

That's for everyone, not JUST Sili.

Here's where i'm at i guess:

 

You're 70% wolf.

Bfg 20% wolf.

Thane 9% wolf.

 

1% random error.

 

I don't do maths, so I'm not going to agree on percentages, but I find your list here currently matches the order of my suspicions. Excluding you.

 

Would you mind elaborating - in a way I'll understand - the reasons you have for those reads and percentages?

 

Please?

Am I still factoring?

 

Yates' content spews everyone but clov villager I'm pretty sure. Plus Clov's content isn't compelling me, and his sequence of posts after yates' flip feel a little forced (in particular the one I declare him a wolf over).

[Sili Quirrels]

yates and clov basically ignore each other. =/

[Clovdyx]

 

Who are you going to look at after me?

Although now the feel of this post is pinging me as slightly sus, I'll play.

 

This is the order I want to look at people in:

 

You

BFG

Sili

Thane

 

My turn. In my position, who would you be looking at next, and why?

 

 

What do you mean by "in my position"?  From your pov?

[Clovdyx]

yates and clov basically ignore each other. =/

 

This is complete and utter bullshit.

[Clovdyx]

/inb4appropriatewarningfromTina

[Sili Quirrels]

 

yates and clov basically ignore each other. =/

 

This is complete and utter bullshit.

 

yates insinuated scum leans on everyone but you though =/

[Sili Quirrels]

to be honest i haven't gone over the iso so i may be wrong. it's certainly possible yates did something insubstantial with clov.

[Sili Quirrels]

 

 

Who are you going to look at after me?

Although now the feel of this post is pinging me as slightly sus, I'll play.

 

This is the order I want to look at people in:

 

You

BFG

Sili

Thane

 

My turn. In my position, who would you be looking at next, and why?

 

 

What do you mean by "in my position"?  From your pov?

 

she's clearly asking for who do you want to lynch and why

[Sili Quirrels]

also, in what order* if i'm not mistaken.

[Clovdyx]

Am I still factoring?

 

Yates' content spews everyone but clov villager I'm pretty sure. Plus Clov's content isn't compelling me, and his sequence of posts after yates' flip feel a little forced (in particular the one I declare him a wolf over).

 

 

 

yates and clov basically ignore each other. =/

 

to be honest i haven't gone over the iso so i may be wrong. it's certainly possible yates did something insubstantial with clov.

 

 

[Clovdyx]

And no, she DIDN'T clearly say that.  If she had clearly said that, I wouldn't have needed to ask for clarification.  

[Sili Quirrels]

it's also possible she wants you to help her out because you have more experience.

 

and i too would like to know where you're at  if you are town, your reads could prove useful.

[Sili Quirrels]

ebwp: (even if we read people very differently)

[Clovdyx]

Page  2 - 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LOL - So yeah. Pretty much this, Clov...

 

 

yes

 
Yates said that how you approached BFG's questions made him reach his conclusion.  I don't have any real issue with how you handled her (though your explanation of changing jmm from town to mafia because you were preoccupied at first is pretty lolzy).  What caught my eye is how she began questioning you.
 
 

Sili, given 2 mafia who are you most likely to tinfoil on at the moment?

On the surface, that doesn't really seem like a significant strike - there's nothing wrong with getting somebody's stances in the thread.  But how would you normally say that? 
 
"Who are you most suspicious of?"
"Who do you thin is the best lynch?"
"Who is your top scum candidate?"
 
So forth and so on.
 
Tinfoil has a certain connotation to it - it implies a townie starting to doubt either their own read or a clearing.  The mafia don't "tinfoil" - they already know what alignment each player is, so they can't become paranoid about it.  By asking who you're likely to tinfoil on, it suggests you ARE town and could end up mislynching, rather than her being unsure of you're alignment.

 

There's no way for me to prove this but I hadn't read this reply prior to my response above. 

 

 

Not really spew-related, but I wanted to make a point with this - THIS is why I said I didn't want to out what I was sitting on (regarding Sili/BFG "knowing" alignment issue).  If you ask somebody a question, don't write an answer for them.

 

 

 

The problem I have is that if you're reading Sili strongly enough to use that as a basis for linking mafia suspects (even if you later move on) why aren't you voting? This lack of conviction from you is very disconcerting :/

As I sort of explained to Sili, I'm really just using relationships to inform my tone reads. I'm not even sure I've called Sili scum outside of my reaction fish.

 

 

Semi-backtracking stance on Sili to remove a presumed scum read?  Could be something there.

 

 

 

Is there a reason you left out my question? It's hardly random?

It was unrelated to our discussion?

 

 

Complete discredit of BFG here.  That's a huge plus in BFG's favor.

 

 

 

Yates who do u have down as scum? Ill know if ur lying probably.

By POE all of the scum are in you, Tress, BFG, and Thane.

Cass is Town 100% of the time, here. I don't recall seeing Clov scum but this is a pretty solid Clov Town approach to the game. Thane hasn't contributed enough and Tress has a medical excuse to not be contributing. Lack of content players are hard to judge. I'd feel good lynching in that pool and investigating there as well.

 

 

Avoids discussing Thane due to lack of contribution.  It's worth nothing that he "overlooked" Jmm (who we know was town), who also had a minimal contribution at that time.  The difference could be he had Thane in chat.  Minor issue, but enough to give me some concern there.

 

 

Anything else I need to clear up or are you happy with my response to Clov?

Further evidence that I read in sequence...   

 

 

Completely dodges BFG's question here.  That's two separate times now she's asked him a direct question and he's avoided saying anything.  

 

 

 

dunno if i'm saying anything right but that's where i'm at. it's a been a challenge articulating my instincts.

It's been a challenge understanding them. Let me see if I follow your logic...

You think I haven't made enough Town reads to substantiate a POE list. A list that you asked me for [when you asked me who was scum]. On Day one. I've already hard cleared almost 30% of the game [2/7]. I think that's a good day's work.

You claim I'm looking for "notable content" from Thane and overlooked his tremendous content in this game and that's wolfy. I told Thane what I'm looking for. And he has been too guarded to provide it. This is NOT a lot of content for Town Thane. Go look at a Town Thane game and get back to me, son. [FYI - volume is now Town Thane public tell #2]

I am being "insanely reductive" in my assessment of Tress's game contribution being lacking due to illness. Do me a favor and quote for me the three most impactfull posts by Tress iyo. IMO? Probably the post where she calls you wolfy. Also, we currently have 13 pages of content. What, iyo, is her strongest post beginning with page 4, you know - once everyone started contributing content to the game?

I didn't mention JMM. You're right. I literally forgot he was even in the game. That's how little I think of JMM at this point in time. In all seriousness, I'm still waiting for him to do anything that resembles backing up his reads on Clov or myself or really anyone but Cass.

You claim there are at least two scum leans I haven't built a case on. Who HAVE I built a case on? And who are my scum leans? POE list =/= scum lean, bro. You know this. You used that to your advantage in Marlfox.

Speaking of Marlfox, is there another game we were in together where you "tinfoiled" on me like this? Pretty sure Marlfox was the only one.

 

 

First, this seems like he's genuinely frustrated with Sili to me.  People fake anger or annoyance with teammates to create distancing, but I fully believe Yates was legitimately bothered by Sili pestering him here.  

 

 

 

 

Off this, order from least likely teammate to most likely would be Sili - BFG - Thane.

[Clovdyx]

So for pages 1 & 2

 

Sili

-

Cass

-

-

-

BFG

-

Thane

[Clovdyx]

I'm fighting off a cold and drained after 6+ hours of NFL Playoffs and chores. So I'm too lazy to do my typical Yates quote then respond thing...

 

@Cass - I understand that you think I'm buddying you. That's fine. Just be sure to keep two pieces of information in mind as you evaluate that opinion; 1. I have you solid Town for reasons already stated [primarily a level of effort/paranoia/game solving that I can't see being faked by a 1st time scum] and 2. This is a be nice game. I feel like I've been buddying everyone. It's unnatural...

 

@Sili - Serious question; why did you say this: "don't know why the wolves thought jmm would be a power role?" You are a clever pony and I'd like some help understanding your motivation here.

 

@Clov - I think your argument with Sili wrt Thane is [was?] a misunderstanding. It looks like you two may have worked it out but I'm going to give you my impression anyway since I wasn't here to interact/intercede in real time. Sili is saying that Thane didn't bother "reading" JMM, he just saw something he considered a PR hint and dropped all suspicion entirely. I happen to agree with this narrative. Thane said he was "cautious" of JMM having never played with him [in post 98]. Then Thane voted JMM "on a hunch" in post 308 - but never really explained how he got there since the only scum reads he *had* explained at the time were on you and Sili. JMM made his "You will not be happy with the result if you lynch me" post in post 311. Then in post 328 Thane unvotes saying "By what you hint, jmm, you're valuable to town.... if i can understand that, so can the wolves." You were asserting that Thane choosing to believe JMM means Thane decided to read JMM as Town. But I agree with Sili that it wasn't actually a "read" so much as Thane saw a PR hint and decided to abandon the wagon. I actually *am* [usually] the Thane whisperer and I don't recall him accepting PR hints as reason enough to abandon a scum read unless others abandoned first. So, I share in Sili's concern. Otherwise, I like where your head is at.

 

@Thane - Am I wrong about what I just said? I feel like you don't typically accept PR hints on your scum suspects at face value. PR claims? Maybe a different story... What made you bail on JMM? Also, is there something preventing you from posting as often as you typically do? This is a small game so your thoughts and opinions are really super important to share. Like, more important than in the larger games that you were much more active in. I miss you.

 

@Tress - Two questions for you, my lovely: 1. Would you mind explaining to me your read on BFG? I think you have more experience with her than I do and I'd like to know what you are seeing. And 2. Would you mind explaining your Thane read a little more as well? I'm a little confused as I read through your progression on him because sometimes it looks to me like you think he's scum but then you also say he is likely being "set up."

 

@BFG - You are a pretty pony. Won't you come out and play?

 

This was the big post from Page 2.  I didn't include it in the spoiler because I wanted to draw particular attention to it.  The way he talks to Cass takes her off the radar.  If he already knew she was scum, he's not saying the red portion IMO.  

 

Green section is what's giving me problems.  I want everybody to keep this in mind.  Neither had posted anything of substance that phase when that post was made (shortly after Day 2 began), and I didn't see any posts by Thane period.  BFG had a "hello".  Neither was overly active during the night phase.  It just seems off that he'd write so much for one seemingly inactive player and almost taunt another?  

 

Thane - Also, is there something preventing you from posting as often as you typically do?

BFG - Won't you come out and play?

[Clovdyx]

EBWOP:

 

 

This was the big post from Page 2 of Yates ISO.  I didn't include it in the spoiler because I wanted to draw particular attention to it.  The way he talks to Cass takes her off the radar.  If he already knew she was scum, he's not saying the red portion IMO.  

 

Green section is what's giving me problems.  I want everybody to keep this in mind.  Neither had posted anything of substance that phase when that post was made (shortly after Day 2 began), and I didn't see any posts by Thane period.  BFG had a "hello".  Neither was overly active during the night phase.  It just seems off that he'd write so much for one seemingly inactive player and almost taunt another?  

 

Thane - Also, is there something preventing you from posting as often as you typically do?

BFG - Won't you come out and play?

 

[Sili Quirrels]

First, this seems like he's genuinely frustrated with Sili to me.  People fake anger or annoyance with teammates to create distancing, but I fully believe Yates was legitimately bothered by Sili pestering him here.

 

'pestering' - i was right though. Yates was lying about his reads.

 

When he says:

"It's been a challenge understanding them. Let me see if I follow your logic..." He is trying to discredit me.

[Sili Quirrels]

Your analysis looks like it can be flipped.

[Clovdyx]

So flip it and show what you come up with.

[Sili Quirrels]

?

 

I mean you never say why Yates sounds genuine, so you've left room to adjust your stance on the spew if you need it. Worse, you set me up as your top town lean while marginalizing my reads and Yates' spew. It appears to me you might be casting doubt without putting down a strong stance. I'm generalizing here, but if I had to compose a case on you I would start with this, relate it to your nudges on me day 1, and find out if you did it to other people as well.

[Sili Quirrels]

But ultimately I don't think I need to put in the effort to validate my suspicions. I've looked over the iso and Yates basically ignores you and doesn't even pretend to figure out your alignment.