[Standard] 11/10 Top Tier Vanilla+ Game Thread

[hazelkrs1]

Still rolling with Dice and Pray as my townbuds btw. And actually Cass has taken Tress' spot as the next one off the lynch

 

So that means omg there's a rerun on! It's thunderdome between Thane and Tress again!

 

[V]##Thane[/v] because he's actually probably the SK. He clearly will vote or lynch anyone someone else tells him to, as long as it's not him, his spamming during EOD1 was completely inappropriate for a townie to do since they would have actually GAVE A DAMN about whether we we're lynching a townie or not (Thane was just offering people beers the whole time), he camped his vote on Pray for FAR too long without showing ANY willingness to readjust reads (even while calling for other people to readjust reads due to the NK's), and even while under threat of a CFD last night just pulled out some lame "that's what they wanted you to think" defense that was considerably LESS than subpar

[Thane Vakarian]

not serial killer, me... nope.

 

vote:##Tress

 

There's your SK if you ask me

 

if not, shoot Pral the coming night.

[hazelkrs1]

Lol wow Thane you might as well have just claimed SK lolololol

 

Sorry tho. GG, town was on a roll this game.

[Thane Vakarian]

 

i am not the SK... i'm giving you my two suspects should you still decide to lynch me.

 

[csarmi]

Why those two in particular?

[Thane Vakarian]

They seem the least townie to me, to put it simple.

[csarmi]

  On 11/25/2014 at 2:02 PM, csarmi said:

Everyone please take a stance on what the vig should so.

Claim or not?

Call shot or not?

Whom to shoot?

Do it in your first post or die.

  

  On 11/25/2014 at 2:04 PM, csarmi said:

READ. ACKNOWLEDGE. ANSWER.

[csarmi]

  On 11/25/2014 at 5:02 PM, Thane Vakarian said:

They seem the least townie to me, to put it simple.

Okay.

 

Why is Cass town?

Why is Dice town?

Why is DesLami town?

Why are you town? What did you do. When. Why.

[csarmi]

  On 11/13/2014 at 4:22 PM, Songstress said:

K, so.  

 

Yesterday was a big black hole of fatigue and fuzzy head.  I've been doing most of my following along on mobile, and I'm positive I've missed some pages or partial pages in there because I've seen things quoted that I don't remember reading.  I won't have time until the weekend to do a full re-read, and it'll be more useful after a few flips anyway, so I'm gonna try to grab a few quotes that I remembered wanting to respond to as I read them and get a semi-explained reads list out there.   A lot of my early reads are gut feelings, but after almost 3 years of playing I've figured out that my gut feelings normally CAN be backed up by evidence when I have the time and motivation to go back and do ISOs.  My thread recall is pretty much crap since I stopped doing the Giant Spreadsheet of Doom, but the impressions the individual posts leave accumulate into a nebulous read.

 

Quotes first, reads list to follow.  BRB.

Tress, you are normally very annoyed when you don't have enough time on your hands to make observations and reads that grab the big picture and show insight and logic. In other words, you are a maximalist when it comes to towning.

 

Would you agree with that chatacterization?

Do you believe it is different this game and if so, why?

Would you care to profile our serial killer? This type of analysis is kind of your thing. Possible approaches:

 

Alive players (why them)

Night kills (why them and why then)

Thread presence (activity level)

[csarmi]

Despo, giving you homework in QT.

[csarmi]

  On 11/18/2014 at 5:14 PM, Songstress said:

Just for grins, let's do this first... 

 

 

  On 11/13/2014 at 5:09 PM, Songstress said:

Fairly comfortable town reads:

 

DesLami 

Kivam - Wolf N1 Vig - Lynched D2

WWWwombat - Seer - Killed N2

Nyn

 

 

Townish vibe:

 

Yates. - Wolf Godfather - Killed N1

Rags

Thane

 

Null/mixed/no clue:

 

Dice

AJ

Leelou - Vanillager - Killed N1

Verbal32 / Barmacral Hydra - Vanillager - Killed N2

Cass 

Stelio Kontos - Jailkeeper - Killed N1

Hallia

 

Mildly uncomfortable:

 

Arsis/Pral

Krakalakachkn - Wolf N2 Vig - Killed N2

Darthe

 

No specifics for these guys, just a gut level discomfort that I can probably go back and make less nebulous this weekend.

 

Top scum leans:

 

Sili Quirrels - Vanillager - Lynched D1

DreadPirateRoberts - Vanillager - Killed N2

 

 

Good God, I'm on a roll.  At least one of my top town picks was town.

 

Revised version to come later.

Revise this. How do you feel now?

[Pralaya]

  On 11/25/2014 at 2:02 PM, csarmi said:

Everyone please take a stance on what the vig should so.

 

Claim or not?

Call shot or not?

Whom to shoot?

 

Do it in your first post or die.

 

Of course the vig should claim. We are 1-5 today and if we mislynch and the vig also mislynches (worst case scenario), we will be 1-2 tomorrow and that would be the end of the game. Most likely the game is not going beyond the next day, so tonight is the only night the vig power will be used. So, claiming would not be a disadvantage because he can still get the shot out before being killed. 

 

Also, it is better to claim today because if the SK counterclaims, we can afford a mislynch. If the vig claims the next day, the mislynch might as well lead to a loss.

 

I don't see any disadvantage in the vig claiming but only multiple advantages. 

[Pralaya]

As to the SK, this is where I was a few days back. I would definitely see the SK playing the middle of the pack - neither too scummy nor too townish.

 

  On 11/19/2014 at 10:52 AM, Pralaya said:

Talking about SK, well, anyone I mentioned as town in the posts above can actually be the SK, including Hally. I would say that the SK play would be like a townie, except for the fact that he/she would want to be a bit scummy to prevent a NK on him/her (again depends on whether he/she has taken GF or BPV). Still, that is a very hard thing to do and don't think it would be easy to catch someone based on this. 

Currently, I would say Nyn/Dice could fit that role.

 

That said, yesterday's events also reinforce my read that Dice is the probable SK.

 

Logically speaking, SK would not have wanted to kill the scum yesterday because if the scum was alive today, today might have been MYLO. Instead, the SK has to survive two more mislynches. So, it is in the interest of SK that the scum would have to be alive going into yesterday night.

 

Looking at that, I am quite suspicious of the forced push that dice had on me yesterday. I understand where Darthe was coming from, him being scum and all. But, Dice would have known that I am town because the D1 Yates push pretty much confirmed that I was not on the scum team. Granted I could be SK too but if Dice is SK himself, then he would know for sure that I am town. It would clearly explain the push yesterday to lynch me - especially when all his reasons was that he disagreed with my reads and was based just on a single line in my summary. It was a pretty opportunistic move and the only reason I could see is because of the above.

 

Incidentally, because of the reason that SK would NOT have wanted to kill scum, I think des/csarmi are pretty much confirmed town here. They would have known that Darthe is confirmed scum but Des was genuinely scum-hunting and not trying to mislynch. If they had even a slight doubt that Darthe was scum, I dont see them as SK to go after him like that. 

[Pralaya]

[v]## Dice [/v]

[Cass]

*Jumps back in*

 

Good morning!

 

Uh...

 

  On 11/25/2014 at 2:02 PM, csarmi said:

Everyone please take a stance on what the vig should so.

Claim or not?

 

Definitely think the Vig should claim, saves us mislynching them by mistake before they get to take their shot. Worst case scenario, the SK also claims Vig. But then, theoretically, having a claim and a counterclaim narrows it down pretty well for us the next night, right?

 

I'm confused though... Csarmi/Des - are you saying that you're not the remaining Vig?

[Tommyrod]

Vote Count D5.01:

Thane (1): Deslami [#3701]
Tress (1): Thane [#3702]
Dice (1): Pral [#3714]

Not Voting (3): Cass, Dice, Tress

At the gallows: Thane

Reminder: players not voting at EOD will be voting for themselves.

[hazelkrs1]

We're not the Vig. Csarmi claimed that as a reaction test and Darthe failed.

[Cass]

Still confused.

 

How was that a reaction test? What would have defined a pass or fail?

[Cass]

Also, what are your thoughts on that question then? Should the Vig claim?

[Cass]

(Sneaking posts on phone at work, may be truncated/delays)

[Cass]

I'm not sure on the vote against Thane, I do agree he comes across as dodgy, my biggest concern is I can't pinpoint anything specific... what if that's just the way he plays?

 

Obviously I have to go back and do more post trawling tonight... unless you've already done a spew?

[Cass]

Pral, I'm not sure I follow your reasoning on Dice... How would being pushed by scum D1 have cleared you before now?

[hazelkrs1]

  On 11/26/2014 at 12:05 AM, Cass said:

Still confused.

 

How was that a reaction test? What would have defined a pass or fail?

Anything that forces scum to react can be considered a reaction test, if it's not the truth. I try and look at reactions to things all the time, cause it's not that hard for many scum to look like they're scumhunting, but it's often harder to fake a towny reaction to a significant event in the game.

 

In this case, and what we discussed on our QT, scum would be more interested in knowing who the other killing roles were, since they are more interested in self preservation so want to assess any threats out there.

 

Csarmi wasn't being that subtle about it, but he WAS dropping little nuggets suggesting that we were one of the bugs. Darthe latched on to that more than anyone else, which is what constituted a fail for that reaction test in my book.

 

Interestingly enough, we've also gone over some stuff Tress said not that long ago that kind of runs in the same vein, making me think she might be the SK and not Thane after all...

 

Would rather hear from Tress first tho. If she doesn't pop in soon I might switch to her. Still don't like Thane's reaction to my vote today, or yesterday for that matter.

[hazelkrs1]

  On 11/26/2014 at 12:18 AM, Cass said:

Also, what are your thoughts on that question then? Should the Vig claim?

Yes, Vig should claim. Pray already pretty clearly laid out why. No disadvantages, plenty of advantages for town.

[Cass]

  On 11/26/2014 at 1:51 AM, Despothera said:

I try and look at reactions to things all the time, cause it's not that hard for many scum to look like they're scumhunting, but it's often harder to fake a towny reaction to a significant event in the game.

 

^ Makes sense...

 

  On 11/26/2014 at 1:51 AM, Despothera said:

Darthe latched on to that more than anyone else, which is what constituted a fail for that reaction test in my book.

 

Not sure I follow this bit though? How so (links?)?

 

 

  On 11/26/2014 at 1:51 AM, Despothera said:

Interestingly enough, we've also gone over some stuff Tress said not that long ago that kind of runs in the same vein, making me think she might be the SK and not Thane after all...

 

Would rather hear from Tress first tho. If she doesn't pop in soon I might switch to her. Still don't like Thane's reaction to my vote today, or yesterday for that matter.

OK ^ . TBH I have to say I do find Tress harder to 'explain' as Town than Thane. (Without meta I'm not sure if that's because she's actually sus or if I'm mostly basing that opinion on relative inactivity and maybe a little omgus as well since she was gunning hard for me as wolf tho..?)

 

Anyway. Like I said, I agree Thane comes across a little dodgy, but my gut is also saying that could potentially kinda be explained in the context of him naturally playing like that and by being Town that got taken advantage of...

 

Tress I'm not so sure. I'll do some more re-reading tonight after the kid goes to bed and see what you/more Tress-experienced players have to say before I vote either way...

 

Also: Damn being made to do light duties in an open office where everyone can see my screen!!!