Merlin Mafia [Advanced!]- Town Wins!!!

[hazelkrs1]

I'd forgotten how fun scum turkey shoots were.

 

Anyone who pushes my original case as plausible without voting Thorum (like Des just did) needs a lynch or a CT scan. I think someone else may have done it earlier too, but Des' post is a masterpiece in scummitude.

I thought it was[/b] plausible, until I saw the part where you then asked for Thorum's character, when basically the entirety of your case on him was based on the fact that he was looking for someone else's character. It was extremely hypocritical Wombat.

 

And I don't have shiz to hide bro, come at me. CT scan all you want. Meanwhile, you're still not disappearing from my scumdar. And I didn't vote Thorum cause he claimed Lancelot, and his explanation dies kind of make sense in his own way. As for off as his notions and ideas have been all game, I could see him having made that poor reasoning and then using that to think there could be "double roles" in the game, which is stupid.

 

As of now, I'm leaning more derpaderp-town on Thorum.

[hazelkrs1]

Also wanna point out that Wombat himself was the one who fos'd others for pushing "the easiest lynch in mafia" and yet us now the one pushing it harder than anyone. Lol.

[hazelkrs1]

 

Also, hate to have to say this yet again, but once again Darthe you're completely misusing and misexplaining Occam's Razor.

 

The ACTUAL principle states that among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected. The whole "all things being equal, the simplest explanation tends to be the right one" is really just a cutesy memorable sounding quote which actually misses the mark. It has nothing to do with what is RIGHT, it has to do with what is practical.

 

If you're testing a hypothesis, the less assumptions you're dealing with the better, because that is less variables that are unaccounted for that could possibly taint the findings. If you're trying to validate a hypothesis that has an inordinate amount of assumptions, you are somewhat doomed from the start since so much of your theory hangs on unproven notions.

 

Thus, there is no Clintonian debate about what constitutes the "simplest" explanation, it is simply whichever one literally has less assumptions.

 

And to reiterate, it has no bearing on what hypothesis would actually end up being true. There are countless phenomena in this world that used to be explained with a "simple" explanation, when the actual process turned out to be incredibly complex.

 

Basically, if you're getting your definition of a logical principle like Occam's Razor from a Matthew McConaghey quote in the movie Contact, you're doing it wrong.

That quote isn't bad imo. Technically, your definition of parsimony is accurate, but also incomplete. The magnitude of an assumption is also important. It's better to have five reasonable assumptions than one obviously false one.

Very true, but then again any scientist or logic technician worth their weight in silver would already use their own hyper developed sense of judgement to determine which assumptions were weak and should be discarded.

[WWWwombat]

Thorum hadn't already claimed cop. Not even close to equivalent to the scenario with Hallia.

 

You and your buddies should stop with the whole "Wombat defending Thorum" angle. It was a good idea but you've pushed it too far and now it's pretty obvious what's going on.

[hazelkrs1]

And the Contact quote is Garbo btw. As I mentioned, there are countless situations in which the correct answer might be the more "complicated" one, and the quote has led to a ridiculous number of people who misuse the precept in daily life. And its also dangerous to use in mafia as well, since it could override better judgement and have people just go for the "simplest" solution, when often it takes a complex mind to truly get to the heart of the matter.

[WWWwombat]

Meh. Even scientists can be dead wrong. Everyone assumed time was absolute and there was no cosmic speed limit until Einstein came along. Einstein himself believed in both locality and causality, which taken together, are imcompatible with subsequent experimental data.

[WWWwombat]

And the Contact quote is Garbo btw. As I mentioned, there are countless situations in which the correct answer might be the more "complicated" one, and the quote has led to a ridiculous number of people who misuse the precept in daily life. And its also dangerous to use in mafia as well, since it could override better judgement and have people just go for the "simplest" solution, when often it takes a complex mind to truly get to the heart of the matter.

The people who misuse the quote tend not to remember the whole quote. "All else being equal" is a very strong caveat seeing as explanatory and predictive power fall under "all else."

[hazelkrs1]

Thorum hadn't already claimed cop. Not even close to equivalent to the scenario with Hallia.

 

You and your buddies should stop with the whole "Wombat defending Thorum" angle. It was a good idea but you've pushed it too far and now it's pretty obvious what's going on.

To the first paragraph: irrelevant. If names really DID hold power in this game, then your whole theory could have just been a ruse so that YOU could get names from others. And as I mentioned, asking for Thorum's character would not have helped you in any way in going along the lines of your reasoning, mafia wouldn't want to give their true identity since it would almost CERTAINLY out them as scum, so they'd fake claim anyways. You asking for his character just didn't make any sense bro.

 

To the second paragraph- I don't have any buddies in this game. You're using elementary school mafia tactics to try and make me look scummy. It won't work out well for you in the end if you're scum. As I mentioned, I have nothing to hide.

 

You do have to admit that it's funny that you admonished others for pushing his lynch day 1 (when he was exhibitng very scummy behavior) because he's apparently an easy lynch, and them shortly after you pursue his own lynch yourself.

[WWWwombat]

Thorum wasn't that scummy D1. Just because someone disagrees with the crappy norms the community has set up doesn't mean he's scum.

 

This time he's literally not making sense.

[hazelkrs1]

Meh. Even scientists can be dead wrong. Everyone assumed time was absolute and there was no cosmic speed limit until Einstein came along. Einstein himself believed in both locality and causality, which taken together, are imcompatible with subsequent experimental data.

Ah but your point proves my own exactly! It was once thought of as a "simple" assumption that time was absolute, until Einstein introduced a very complex theory that happened to explain the model better. And even Einstein made assumptions in his theory, assumptions which are now being called into question as modern cosmologists are revisiting the theory of relativity.

[hazelkrs1]

 

And the Contact quote is Garbo btw. As I mentioned, there are countless situations in which the correct answer might be the more "complicated" one, and the quote has led to a ridiculous number of people who misuse the precept in daily life. And its also dangerous to use in mafia as well, since it could override better judgement and have people just go for the "simplest" solution, when often it takes a complex mind to truly get to the heart of the matter.

The people who misuse the quote tend not to remember the whole quote. "All else being equal" is a very strong caveat seeing as explanatory and predictive power fall under "all else."

True. But let's leave it at that tho, this discussion might soon detail the game again.

[hazelkrs1]

Thorum wasn't that scummy D1. Just because someone disagrees with the crappy norms the community has set up doesn't mean he's scum.

 

This time he's literally not making sense.

I disagree, I even said myself that I kind of thought Thorum was likely town because I thought no scummer would actually act that overtly scummy. And certain community norms were developed for a reason, because it became very clear after a certain amount of time that certain behaviors were just inherently scummy, or at the very least anti-town. Certain.

 

And I don't think he's made sense all game, and have pointed that out multiple times.

[WWWwombat]

Special relativity only had two main postulates. The rest of the theory is derived from them and some minor assumptions. Logically, it's actually a far simpler theory than the aether theory. It just uses more advanced mathematics.

 

General relativity is the theory people are trying to alter right now and even Einstein wasn't sure about some of that.

[WWWwombat]

 

Thorum wasn't that scummy D1. Just because someone disagrees with the crappy norms the community has set up doesn't mean he's scum.

 

This time he's literally not making sense.

I disagree, I even said myself that I kind of thought Thorum was likely town because I thought no scummer would actually act that overtly scummy. And certain community norms were developed for a reason, because it became very clear after a certain amount of time that certain behaviors were just inherently scummy, or at the very least anti-town. Certain.

 

And I don't think he's made sense all game, and have pointed that out multiple times.

The main criticism on Thorum was that he was "setting up lynches." He wasn't. He was linking. Furthermore, even setting up lynches has its uses in a town game.

[WWWwombat]

And I fail to see how Hallia's cop claim is irrelevant to your accusation of hypocrisy. I didn't imply that all character reveals are unwarranted, just ones from power role claimants.

[hazelkrs1]

 

 

Hallia: who are you and who did you target?

 

Just so I remember we still haven't gotten an answer to that: Hallia

 

For all clarity: I'll unvote as soon as we get her answer (well, unless she claims to be who I am).

 

 

Can someone reread Kaylee's posts. Mainly with two questions in mind:

- why did she claim vig instead of serial killer? I got the impression everyone read that claim as her having only one shot, while a serial killer obviously has a series of shots.

- who tried to strengthen her train without seeming to do so? This could have been a good tactic for mafia.

OMFG is this for real? Could Thorum actually believe the crap he's posting?

I pointed out the ludicrousness of this post far before you did:

 

 

Hallia: who are you and who did you target?

 

Just so I remember we still haven't gotten an answer to that: Hallia

 

For all clarity: I'll unvote as soon as we get her answer (well, unless she claims to be who I am).

 

 

Can someone reread Kaylee's posts. Mainly with two questions in mind:

- why did she claim vig instead of serial killer? I got the impression everyone read that claim as her having only one shot, while a serial killer obviously has a series of shots.

- who tried to strengthen her train without seeming to do so? This could have been a good tactic for mafia.

Sigh. You really aren't very good at this game Thorum. She said she was blocked. That looks suspicious of course, but mafia RB'ers are very common and it makes perfect sense that they would have chosen to block her. No reason for you to know who she targeted right now. And unless you're gonna CC, you really shouldn't vote a claimed cop. If she gave a character claim that seemed sketchy, THEN you could vote her. If you are the real Cop and she fake claimed, you aren't being subtle at all and could easily draw a NK by trying to be sly. Your play is EXTREMELY anti-town so far, so much so that it's actually hard for me to believe you're scum. Mafia would NEVER play as terrible as you have so far ( )

 

And btw, claiming SK would have led to an instant lynch on her. But by all means, next time you're SK in a game with me, please claim it. And she never mentioned anything about having a limited number of shots, where would you have gotten that impression of everyone thinking that?

/Hipster

[WWWwombat]

I also like how Des' apparent interpretation of my CT scan comment was that I meant he was definitely hiding something when I could have just meant he's nuts. Guilty conscience, Des?

[hazelkrs1]

That reminds me, even most proof of Dart he's scumminess:

 

perhaps, but I would not have killed an SK who could provide my team with a quicker victory. That was rubbish. You use people like that.

The "I would never do that as scum!" defense is as weak as they come. Wifom at its best ladies and gentleman.

[WWWwombat]

You missed my point in quoting that post entirely. The post implies that Thorum is actually a one-shot vig or that he was breadcrumbing this claim way back then.

[hazelkrs1]

I also like how Des' apparent interpretation of my CT scan comment was that I meant he was definitely hiding something when I could have just meant he's nuts. Guilty conscience, Des?

I actually had a brain fart there, wasn't thinking CT scan like the kind that check your brain. Was thinking of a finder type scan or something.

 

Either way, nope. Guilt doesn't suit me. I prefer boldness and vindication as my default emotional states. And once again, you're barking up the wrong tree.

[WWWwombat]

That reminds me, even most proof of Dart he's scumminess:

 

 

perhaps, but I would not have killed an SK who could provide my team with a quicker victory. That was rubbish. You use people like that.

The "I would never do that as scum!" defense is as weak as they come. Wifom at its best ladies and gentleman.

And yet you just provided a quote of yourself using that rationale for a town read on Thorum. It's a bit scummier when people do it for themselves, but it's close to a null tell imo.

[WWWwombat]

Also, totally willing to lynch Vambram today too.

[hazelkrs1]

You missed my point in quoting that post entirely. The post implies that Thorum is actually a one-shot vig or that he was breadcrumbing this claim way back then.

I don't see it that way at all. Once again I think it was him blundering, if anything it supports that view of mine. He acts like he thought everyone would have assumed Kaylee was claiming one-shot vig, when almost assuredly no one else but him probably thought that. Basically I don't think Thorum is skilled enough to have breadcrumbed the claim like that. Harsh, but true.

[WWWwombat]

 

I also like how Des' apparent interpretation of my CT scan comment was that I meant he was definitely hiding something when I could have just meant he's nuts. Guilty conscience, Des?

I actually had a brain fart there, wasn't thinking CT scan like the kind that check your brain. Was thinking of a finder type scan or something.

 

Either way, nope. Guilt doesn't suit me. I prefer boldness and vindication as my default emotional states. And once again, you're barking up the wrong tree.

Perhaps your brain farted out some of your subconscious thoughts.

 

I was wondering when you'd get to bringing up my "track record" with you. I usually get a false scum read on you early which goes away. This time I had a town read on you early, which has changed to a scum read lately. Also, shooters gotta shoot.

[Tyler Glembo]

vote Razen

 

Lurking scum