Verin doubling up on the Caemlyn warning

[herid]

I was browsing the interview database and I noticed the following quote

 

 

Interview: Aug 31st, 2011
Reddit AMA (Verbatim)

Shillster ()

Why does Verin make Mat promise to obey her letter if he opened it in Towers of Midnight? In my mind of course if he would have obeyed the letter if he read it. All that Verin had to do was say "Mat, read this in a few days it's super important" then since he didn't have any reason not to read the letter he would read it and prevent the horrible battle with the Trollocs. What was Verin's reasoning?

Brandon Sanderson

 

A couple of things here.

The primary one is that Verin had to work around her oaths, which required her to go through some strange mental gymnastics. She actually tried out different ways of getting this information across, and could never make it work. (In her pouch was actually a letter that said something similar to Mat, but which read "Ignore what I say and open this immediately.) She couldn't pick it up at the moment, however. The oaths were binding. She would either have had to take poison right then, or bet on Mat being too impatient to wait.

Second thing is this, and it's a slight spoiler for the next book. She did build in redundancy.

What redundancy can he be talking about?  I don't think we've seen any. The only thing I can think of is that she sent Alanna to Arafel to deal with the Waygate there that the Trollocs use for transport. There is a Waygate on the border of Arafel and the Blight.

 

 

[Carnacarn]

We still don't know what her letter to Rand says, correct? Maybe that is some of the redundancy. Or it could be Alanna in the borderlands, but Rand only knows she is to the north, maybe Arafel. It is not explicitly stated where. I think Alanna could be a unquantified BA member and might have opened the ways at Arafel for the Shadowspawn.

[herid]

Rand said in AMOL, ch 1 that he was surprised by the attack on Caemlyn and expected an attack in the south.

 

 

 

“You’re not surprised,” Perrin said. “You’re worried, but not surprised.”

“No, I’m not,” Rand admitted. “I thought it would be the south where they struck—I’ve heard word of Trolloc sightings there, and I’m half-certain that Demandred is involved. He has never been comfortable without an army. But Caemlyn . . . yes, it’s a clever strike.

 

So whatever Verin told him in the red letter she left for him, she didn't warn him about Caemlyn.

And I don't believe Alanna in Black.

[Carnacarn]

Didn't remember that from Chap 1. Then I am at a loss as to Alanna's motivations

[Amandera]

Well, redundancies may have failed as well. Or they may not be warnings but some kind of help in case the warning failed. One thing that comes to my mind is Band. I don't remember the timeline exactly but I don't think much time passes between Mat's requirement to stay in Caemlyn ends and the attack on Caemlyn. Even if Mat doesn't open the letter she may have counted on the Band being there to save the day. Which they did not exactly do, but saving the dragons and escorting refugees were the best to be expected under the circumstances.

 

Other thing is Laras. I don't remember whose theory it was but someone thought it important that she urged Egwene in A Visit from Verin Sedai to see Laras multiple times. I don't know why she doesn't say straight out though, maybe her other Oaths prevented it unlikely as it may be.

 

Another thing is the letter to Galad. I can think of only two possibilities for that letter, one is telling him Rand is his brother which doesn't really serve any purpose that I can think of if she managed to figure that out and the other is something about Caemlyn that Galad failed to recognize.

 

All in all, I think all her plans failed. Her Oaths didn't really give her much leeway.

[herid]

It's certainly clear that the redundancies have failed. But I don't see how the Band can qualify as a redundancy. The Band is with Mat and Verin has no clue that Mat intends to go off somewhere by himself. Galad is out. He was in Caemlyn and never said anything to Elayne.

Laras? If Verin wanted to tell Egwene she could have told her straight out or written about it in the book she gave her. No need to involve Laras.

[Carnacarn]

One of the reasons the band 'fails' is Elayne used a good chunk of them for her taking of Cairhein.

[Amandera]

It's certainly clear that the redundancies have failed. But I don't see how the Band can qualify as a redundancy. The Band is with Mat and Verin has no clue that Mat intends to go off somewhere by himself. Galad is out. He was in Caemlyn and never said anything to Elayne.

Laras? If Verin wanted to tell Egwene she could have told her straight out or written about it in the book she gave her. No need to involve Laras.

I know they are unlikely but I really don't have anything better.

 

Galad may not have told Elayne simply because he may not have understood it. He is blunt where Verin is sneaky, so it's within realm of possibility. I said Band because, more than anything else, they played the biggest part in the battle, so they would count as a minor spoiler.

 

Theory about Laras is here: http://13depository.blogspot.com/2001/07/hunt-for-horn.html

Linda thinks it's the Horn but it could be something else.

[mbuehner]

Maybe she didn't fail and saving Caemlyn wasn't her major objective, but was simply incidental somehow.  Perhaps she was trying to give Matt a compelling reason to be in Caemlyn and not out god knows where... in which she failed actually now that i think about it. 

 

Rand is the only one showing any sense about Caemlyn, its irrelevant. Most of the people got out and otherwise its just a spot on a map. Its meant to be a distraction and sow discord among the allies.  The smart move is indeed to abandon the place and deal with the trolloc army if and when it tried to march out, along the lines that Rand and Bashere had planned.

[mbuehner]

It's certainly clear that the redundancies have failed. But I don't see how the Band can qualify as a redundancy. The Band is with Mat and Verin has no clue that Mat intends to go off somewhere by himself. Galad is out. He was in Caemlyn and never said anything to Elayne.

Laras? If Verin wanted to tell Egwene she could have told her straight out or written about it in the book she gave her. No need to involve Laras.

I know they are unlikely but I really don't have anything better.

 

Galad may not have told Elayne simply because he may not have understood it. He is blunt where Verin is sneaky, so it's within realm of possibility. I said Band because, more than anything else, they played the biggest part in the battle, so they would count as a minor spoiler.

 

Theory about Laras is here: http://13depository.blogspot.com/2001/07/hunt-for-horn.html

Linda thinks it's the Horn but it could be something else.

 

Interesting. Shouldn't Siuan know where the horn is though? Unless Verin lied to her. All things being equal, Egwene should have the horn in hand regardless.  Perhaps she does and she is going to produce it on the FoM... it would be a big piece of leverage for her psychologically. The whole idea of confronting Rand with the armies of the world was ludicrous on its face, but if she had the HoV to rally them with... and in fact if she was threatening to withhold it from Rand if he persists in breaking the seals and thereby dooming his efforts in the last battle? 

[Amandera]

I don't believe that theory is right, because of Siuan as you said and because Verin would probably tell Egwene where the Horn is straight out. It's clear something's going on with Laras though and Verin may be a part of her mistery.

[mbuehner]

I don't believe that theory is right, because of Siuan as you said and because Verin would probably tell Egwene where the Horn is straight out. It's clear something's going on with Laras though and Verin may be a part of her mistery.

 

Agreed. I always figured Laras was a conduit to the Kin, but i'm not sure how Verin tied into that or why it would matter much. Unless there comes a point where Egwene needs to escape the tower or sneak somebody/something out, which i guess is possible.

[Carnacarn]

Or Laras is the human counterpoint of Bela...

[herid]

Verin giving the Horn to Laras   is an interesting theory. I think it deserves its own thread though.

What about my original question? Still waiting to see other plausible suggestions about how Verin could have built in redundancy in her Caemlyn warning. I like my own about Alanna and the Arafel Waygate the best of what has been suggested so far.

[a_lily_in_winter]

The simplest redundancy was that it was in the book that she gave to Egwene. I cannot see why it wouldn't be in there. Nor do I understand why she did not mention it to Egwene directly, though.

[herid]

Egwene had that book for a full month before the start of the Caemlyn attack and I'm sure she read it quite thoroughly several times over. If there was any info about the attack in the book Egwene would know about it by the start of AMOL.

[Aquarius]

The simplest redundancy was that it was in the book that she gave to Egwene. I cannot see why it wouldn't be in there. Nor do I understand why she did not mention it to Egwene directly, though.

Her book is her life's work on the BA. Not the right place to store that kind of info she would have learned only shortly beforehand.