"Present Day" Aes Sedai strength

[rubbernilly]

OK, you didn't get it.

[Nightstrike]

The problem is that RJ's quote dealt with the number of women who could test for the shawl, not the strength of the women who did.

 

Get it?

I have read what you wrote. I said that it does not matter. Same conclusion either way.

[rubbernilly]

OK, let me state it this way...

 

1) Every Aes Sedai is at least strong enough to have attained the shawl, but how strong is that threshold in absolute terms? We can't answer that.

 

2) 62.5% of all women channelers could possibly attain the shawl, but not nearly that number ever have the chance. Many go their whole life never knowing that they could have learned. Others are Windfinders, Wise Ones, damane, or sul'dam.

 

3) A hard and fast number, like that percentage means that the set of all channeling women is a closed system: if an area has very, very strong women who could attain the shawl, another area has to have women who are weaker. Geographically speaking, it is like a wave. Or, better, like high and low pressure systems.

 

If the Pattern concentrated stronger channelers in the lands where channeling women commonly become Aes Sedai (if they are going to become anything), then the AS would be drawing very strong channelers into their ranks. Their average strength would be going up relative to the set of all channelers.

 

If, on the other hand, the Pattern dispersed women of strength to non-Aes-Sedai lands, then the AS would be drawing weaker channelers into their ranks. Their average strength would be going down relative to the set of all channelers. They would all be capable of attaining the shawl (a bar whose height we cannot be sure of), but beyond that, how strong are they?

 

Oh, relatively speaking, we can say that this one is stronger than that one... or that this one is far weaker than that one, but in relation to the set of all channelers? We can't say that.

 

And short of establishing the distribution of strength among channeling women (how strong are the female channelers), we can't say how strong the AS are.

 

Which makes it a bit of a circle, if you think about it. You have to know how strong the women are (in an absolute way) before you can say how strong the women are (in relative terms to Lanfear or women in general).

 

Here's an example to put it in concrete terms...

 

(For the sake of round numbers, I'll use 60% rather than 62.5%)

One a scale of 1 to 100 as possible female strength in the power, the AS threshold for attaining the shawl is 41.

100 women channelers, ranging incrementally in strength from 1 to 100 (no two women have the same strength: there is one 1, one 2, one 3, etc. (Note: I am not saying that this linear distribution holds for Randland, only that it makes numbers easy here)

60 women are strong enough to attain the shawl (fulfilling our 60% dictum)

 

Example 1:

Channelers 41 - 50 become AS

Channelers 51 - 100 are Windfinders, Aiel, or undiscovered

Average AS strength: 45.5

 

Example 2:

Channelers 81 - 90 become AS

Channelers 41 - 80, 91 - 100 are WFs, Aiel, or undiscovered

Average AS strength: 85.5

 

Example 3:

Channelers 41, 45 - 52, 63, 65, 68, 71 - 73, 78, 82 - 86, 92 - 94 become AS

Channelers ought else are WFs, Aiel, or undiscovered

Average AS strength: ~67.4

 

I know that RJ talked of a bell curve, so there would be some heavier distribution around the middle, but I was just establishing the mechanic. Depending on where the strength was in the world, the AS could be stronger or weaker.

 

Unless you know how the saidar-strength is dispersed, you can't establish AS strength relative to the upper limit.

[Nightstrike]

OK, let me state it this way...

 

1) Every Aes Sedai is at least strong enough to have attained the shawl, but how strong is that threshold in absolute terms? We can't answer that.

I agree completely. Those who argue for symmetric curves (& median above 50 percent of Lanfear's strength) disagree. I went by their assumptions, and proved why that is not possible. So the curve is not symmetrical, and the median is far below 50 percent of Lanfear's strength.

 

2) 62.5% of all women channelers could possibly attain the shawl, but not nearly that number ever have the chance. Many go their whole life never knowing that they could have learned. Others are Windfinders, Wise Ones, damane, or sul'dam.

I agree completely. It speaks in favor of my conclusions.

 

3) A hard and fast number, like that percentage means that the set of all channeling women is a closed system: if an area has very, very strong women who could attain the shawl, another area has to have women who are weaker. Geographically speaking, it is like a wave. Or, better, like high and low pressure systems.

 

If the Pattern concentrated stronger channelers in the lands where channeling women commonly become Aes Sedai (if they are going to become anything), then the AS would be drawing very strong channelers into their ranks. Their average strength would be going up relative to the set of all channelers.

If that were true, then Egwene would be stronger than Lanfear. Though it isn't true, since RJ spoke of those in the population that AS recruit from. We don't even have any reason to assume the strength distribution is any different now than it was during AoL.

 

If, on the other hand, the Pattern dispersed women of strength to non-Aes-Sedai lands, then the AS would be drawing weaker channelers into their ranks. Their average strength would be going down relative to the set of all channelers. They would all be capable of attaining the shawl (a bar whose height we cannot be sure of), but beyond that, how strong are they?

RJ spoke of the Aes Sedai recruiting pool. Weaker potential channelers means weaker Aes Sedai. Which (if it had been true) means an explanation for the huge difference between Moiraine & the strongest one ever.

 

Oh, relatively speaking, we can say that this one is stronger than that one... or that this one is far weaker than that one, but in relation to the set of all channelers? We can't say that.

We can, and I gave examples of that. Like "a bonfire next to a candle", for instance. Weight lifted is a good measurement of strength as well. Rarity of channelers (3 or 5 out of all Aes Sedai) gives a point of reference, from which we can draw conclusions about where Moiraine should be if we start out assuming (wrongly so, but anyway) that the curve is symmetrical. So it really is possible to draw conclusions.

 

 

[Nightstrike]

In a perfectly symmetric curve, 1 out of 200 means 79 percent of the strongest one's strength (for a population of 100 000 female channelers) or 72 percent of the strongest one's strength (for a population of 500 million female channelers).

 

Five out of 990 Aes Sedai means 1 out of 200 is stronger. Three out of a thousand Aes Sedai means 1 out of 333 is stronger. Not even counting the ones who were too weak to become Aes Sedai. (Divide population size with 0.625 to get the correct numbers.)

 

Egwene can lift more than 1.333333 times as much as old Siuan.

 

 

 

(Egwene is roughly 2.0-2.5 times the strength of median strength Aes Sedai like Adeleas.)

 

 

 

[rubbernilly]

If the Pattern concentrated stronger channelers in the lands where channeling women commonly become Aes Sedai (if they are going to become anything), then the AS would be drawing very strong channelers into their ranks. Their average strength would be going up relative to the set of all channelers.

If that were true, then Egwene would be stronger than Lanfear.

 

That doesn't follow. Why would this mean that Egwene would be stronger than Lanfear?

 

If Lanfear is at 100, and the Wheel wove no female channeler out into the world right now of stronger than 90... Egwene would still be below Lanfear (whatever E's strength would be). My point was that the Wheel could have concentrated the channelers it *did* have as the population the AS draw from, rather than the population that would never find their way to the tower.

 

Though it isn't true, since RJ spoke of those in the population that AS recruit from.

Let me say, first, that I dispute this reading of the RJ quote. Including the Ashaman in the discussion of strength (since they recruit from all over), *and* including the comment about there being a couple more levels more men above that of women (another global sort of comment/reference), nails it for me that he was talking about the scope of all channeling potential.

 

That said...

 

Holding that RJ's quote dealt with the AS source-population isn't really an argument against what I am saying, since I am in fact directly talking about that very same population. If the Wheel wove out strong channelers into this source-population, the AS would be a higher median strength and a higher mark relative to Lanfear's measuring stick.

 

We don't even have any reason to assume the strength distribution is any different now than it was during AoL.

Well, first, it is an assumption either way: to assume that dispersal is the same, or to assume that it is different.

 

You are doing the first.

...and I am *not* doing the second.

 

Instead, I'm saying that you can draw any conclusion you want to, but those conclusions are only as good as the assumptions you based them on... and since there is the possibility that the Wheel wove strength concentrated into (or dispersed away from) the AS source population, your conclusions aren't very conclusive.

 

Do we or don't we have reason to assume that there is similar dispersal of strength as in the AoL? I say we have plenty of reason to expect that the Wheel would weave into the Pattern the tools it needed (and Rand needed) to get the job done.

 

Whether that be a concentration of strong channelers in the AS source population (not just Egwene and Nynaeve and Elayne, but others perhaps undiscovered yet) so that they would be strong...

 

...or whether that be a concentration of weak channelers in the AS source population (maybe so that they learn to work together, or maybe so that the strong ones are taught in methods other than the White Tower -- Windfinders, Wise Ones, or damane).

 

With the White Tower breaking, the Wheel might very well have woven stronger or weaker channelers to be there... stronger or weaker depending on what you see as the point, the plan, and the need of the Wheel.

 

There is every reason to suspect that the Wheel (a great device of correcting), would weave into the Pattern just the sort of channelers, and just the dispersal of strength, it needed this time around.

 

Oh, relatively speaking, we can say that this one is stronger than that one... or that this one is far weaker than that one, but in relation to the set of all channelers? We can't say that.

We can, and I gave examples of that. Like "a bonfire next to a candle", for instance. Weight lifted is a good measurement of strength as well.

I disagree that weight lifted is a good measurement of strength. That is 1 single power (Air) out of the 5. By that logic, I'd bet that Windfinders would CLEAN UP at the All Channeler Winter Games. Not only that, but lifting could be by talent as well as brute strength.

 

Also, I've seen you and Masjsu go back and forth on lifting, and what various AS were able to lift. You even get very exact with what Egwene can lift (1.333333 of old Siuan). All of those comparisons assume we know something about what Gareth Bryne weighs, for instance, or what two women together might weigh. Those are extremely general assumptions to arrive at numbers so exact.

 

But ultimately, like I said, we're just talking about 1 of the 5 powers.

 

The references like "a bonfire next to a candle" are better in that they directly reference overall strength in the power, but they are also worse in that they are less exact (compared to lifting).

[Nightstrike]

That doesn't follow. Why would this mean that Egwene would be stronger than Lanfear?

It follows. I've presented the evidence somewhere. I'm too lazy to repost it.

 

Let me say, first, that I dispute this reading of the RJ quote.

I know that. I also know that I can't convince you. It wouldn't have mattered anyway. (But we still disagree about what RJ said in his blog. Regardless of whether it matters or not.)

For Gyrehead, Foretelling is not related to strength.  The weakest possible channeler could Foretell as strongly as Elaida or Nicola, or perhaps even more so, depending entirely on the strength of his or her Talent for Foretelling.  The three Red Sitters were sent into exile in 985 NE under Marith Jaen.  Yes, Morgase has slowed, and that is exactly why there is so much emphasis on her looking only ten years older than Perrin when she has children the ages of Elayne and Gawyn.  Regarding the percentage of women who could test for the shawl, it would be 62.5% of the bellcurve.  I’ll leave the maths to you for an idle moment.  The question doesn’t really apply to men, since the Black Tower accepts anyone who can learn to channel, but if the White Tower limits were applied, it would be roughly 65.4% of the bellcurve.  Although, considering the effectiveness question, they should probably set it at the same 62.5%.  Again, the maths are all yours.  Regarding the levels of male strength, while the weakest man and the weakest woman would be roughly equivalent, you might say that there are several levels of male strength on top of the female levels.  Remember to integrate this with what I’ve said elsewhere about effectiveness, though.

 

 

[Nightstrike]

It's pretty clear what RJ talked about. It wouldn't matter anyway. Same conclusion as before.

 

Aes Sedai stay out of the breeding pool, which means that they have a lower percentage of channelers than they have in other parts of the world. It does not mean they are weaker than in other parts of the world.

 

If culling the ablility to channel from 3 to 1 percent (of the population) would have meant that their average & median have become lower than during the AoL, then it would have supported my previous conclusion. That the median & average are a lot lower than 50 percent of Lanfear's OP strength.

 

 

These are the Aes Sedai (Aes Sedai as of TGS) that are stronger than Moiraine(old)/Siuan(old)/Elaida:

Nynaeve

Egwene

Elayne

Cadsuane

Nicola

 

Five out of all Aes Sedai is very rare. During New Spring there were even more Aes Sedai than there are now, and then there were only 3 that were stronger than Elaida.

 

(Rarity can be observed on the curve you think you have. Such as a perfectly symmetric one, if you think that's the case. Conclusions can be drawn from that.)

 

 

From Cadsuane there's a sharp drop to Elaida. Egwene is stronger than Cadsuane. Nynaeve has been compared to Egwene with the remark "a bonfire next to a candle". Alivia is significantly stronger than Nynaeve.

 

 

[rubbernilly]

You didn't address any of my points.

 

The Pattern could have woven stronger than average channelers into the AS ranks (weaker than Lanfear, but still stronger than average).

The Pattern could have woven weaker than average channelers into the AS ranks.

 

That means that there is too wide a possible variance to draw any meaningful conclusion.

[Nightstrike]

You didn't address any of my points.

That's because you didn't have any.

 

The Pattern could have woven stronger than average channelers into the AS ranks (weaker than Lanfear, but still stronger than average).

"Sharp drop". "A bonfire next to a candle". "Significantly stronger".

 

Stronger than expected would give a slightly higher median and a much stronger Elaida.

 

The Pattern could have woven weaker than average channelers into the AS ranks.

Would have supported my conclusion, if it had been the case. (But it's not.)

 

That means that there is too wide a possible variance to draw any meaningful conclusion.

:) Everybody are entitled to their own opinions. (Which doesn't mean that they are correct.)

 

[Nightstrike]

Don't get me wrong. If stronger than expected channelers have been born recently (=the last 20-25 years), then that doesn't change the fact that the median of all modern Aes Sedai is much weaker than 50 percent of Lanfear at her peak.

 

The conclusion is the same in any case.

 

[rubbernilly]

No points?

 

Try "No points that you can answer."

 

Go back and read my examples. I come up with a range of 45 mean strength to 85 mean strength.

 

It matters what strength of channelers are woven into the Pattern, and where.

[Nightstrike]

Go back and read my examples. I come up with a range of 45 mean strength to 85 mean strength.

Yes, you pulled some numbers out of your hat. I go by what we have been told instead.

 

It matters what strength of channelers are woven into the Pattern, and where.

Indeed. It matters very much.

[Nightstrike]

For Gyrehead, Foretelling is not related to strength.  The weakest possible channeler could Foretell as strongly as Elaida or Nicola, or perhaps even more so, depending entirely on the strength of his or her Talent for Foretelling.  The three Red Sitters were sent into exile in 985 NE under Marith Jaen.  Yes, Morgase has slowed, and that is exactly why there is so much emphasis on her looking only ten years older than Perrin when she has children the ages of Elayne and Gawyn.  Regarding the percentage of women who could test for the shawl, it would be 62.5% of the bellcurve.  I’ll leave the maths to you for an idle moment.  The question doesn’t really apply to men, since the Black Tower accepts anyone who can learn to channel, but if the White Tower limits were applied, it would be roughly 65.4% of the bellcurve.  Although, considering the effectiveness question, they should probably set it at the same 62.5%.  Again, the maths are all yours.  Regarding the levels of male strength, while the weakest man and the weakest woman would be roughly equivalent, you might say that there are several levels of male strength on top of the female levels.  Remember to integrate this with what I’ve said elsewhere about effectiveness, though.

 

It's pretty clear what RJ talked about. It wouldn't matter anyway. Same conclusion as before.

 

Aes Sedai stay out of the breeding pool, which means that they have a lower percentage of channelers than they have in other parts of the world. It does not mean they are weaker than in other parts of the world.

 

If culling the ablility to channel from 3 to 1 percent (of the population) would have meant that their average & median have become lower than during the AoL, then it would have supported my previous conclusion. That the median & average are a lot lower than 50 percent of Lanfear's OP strength.

 

 

These are the Aes Sedai (Aes Sedai as of TGS) that are stronger than Moiraine(old)/Siuan(old)/Elaida:

Nynaeve

Egwene

Elayne

Cadsuane

Nicola

 

Five out of all Aes Sedai is very rare. During New Spring there were even more Aes Sedai than there are now, and then there were only 3 that were stronger than Elaida.

 

(Rarity can be observed on the curve you think you have. Such as a perfectly symmetric one, if you think that's the case. Conclusions can be drawn from that.)

 

 

From Cadsuane there's a sharp drop to Elaida. Egwene is stronger than Cadsuane. Nynaeve has been compared to Egwene with the remark "a bonfire next to a candle". Alivia is significantly stronger than Nynaeve.

 

 

[Nightstrike]

Elaida would be at around 0.75-0.79 times the strongest female channeler ever, if we assume a perfectly symmetric curve.

 

Stronger Aes Sedai than expected leads to Elaida being even stronger than already mentioned.

 

I'd say that this curve is very skewed, and that the mean and median are far below 50 percent of Lanfear at her peak strength.

 

 

 

[Vicious Circle]

You didn't address any of my points.

That's because you didn't have any.

 

OMG, you two crack me up!  8)

[Vicious Circle]

Oops, how did I end up inside your quotes? Must have been laughing too hard! :D