Relative Effectiveness of Military Forces: Light vs. Light vs. Dark

[Lord Beric]

So, the listing of forces arrayed on the various side of the Last Battle got me thinking.  What exactly is the comparable effectiveness of the different units we keep seeing?  Is a Trolloc more effective than an Aiel?  How many men-at-arms is a Myrddraal worth?  How much more effective are the Seanchan Fists of Heaven or the Legion of the Dragon than the Westlands' more standard recruits?

 

In an attempt to shed some added light on the raw numbers assigned to each side, I've attempted to place a numeric value on the battle-effectiveness of many of the groups named, relative to each other.  Granted, this is a horribly in-exact science, as it's tough to boil down strategic and tactical strengths and weaknesses to a pure numeric scale.  However, I am hoping that even a rough estimate of relative strength might make it more obvious as to why the Light isn't necessarially in as strong a position as might be thought entering the Last Battle.

 

Before we get to the raw data, let me put forward some of the evidence from the books that I'm using to make the following (rough) estimates.  A lot of the evidence comes from earlier books where channeling wasn't as much of a factor.  The given standard unit is one man-at-arms (your standard career soldier, Andoran Royal Guard / Whitecloak / mercenary / Borderlander / etc.).

 

In no particular order:

 

In Fal Dara at the beginning of TGH we see six or seven Borderlanders take on a Myrddraal and lose.  In TDR Rhuarc seems fairly certain that against three Myrddraal his group of Aiel (more than ten, but not by much) would have prevailed, but many of them would have died.  From the various encounters in TSR we see that when not taken by surprise (and Myrddraal-led) a group of Trollocs can easily mess up close to twice their number of Two-Rivers men (obviously once their bows come into play the situation changes).  When a pack of wolves attacks a Myrddraal "half the pack" is likely to die.

 

During the battle for Cairhien Mat considers attacking half his number of Aiel to be a gamble without a solid battle plan.  This is with a mixed group of cavalry and pikes.  After Dumai's Wells (the beginning of aCoS) Gawyn's Younglings (definitely better than average soldiers, and mounted) encounter a group of Shaido about half their strength (200 Younglings perhaps as many as 100 Shaido).  The Younglings come out on top, but not by a great margin.

 

The Seanchan's strength seems to come in with their tactical superiority and ability to adapt to new challenges, rather than any greater skill.  The one exception to this seems to be the Fists of Heaven.  Lightly armored, elite soldiers, these troops seem to be at least the same level as the Aiel (there is relatively little evidence for this, as we've only seen them fight alongside damane).

 

Anyway, here's the numbers that I've maunfactured out of all this musing.  Feel free to rip it apart, or make constructive suggestions.

 

Man-at-arms - Infantry = 1

(includes Whitecloaks, Andoran Guards, Borderlanders, Tower Guards, and standing armies of Illian, Tear and Cairhen)

Peasant levies = .5 (this is being generous)

(recent recruits, those with little to no training, includes any of Masema's forces)

Man-at-arms - Cavalry = 2

(includes all Westlands cavalry, with obvious variation, i.e. Borderlanders get an edge, while poorly led cavalry are slightly less effective)

Aiel = 3

Trolloc = 3

(better when Myrddraal lead; weaker when on their own)

Myrddraal = 7

(this could be inaccurate, but Myrddraal seem pretty damned good at killing)

Fists of Heaven = 3

Generic Seanchan = 1.5

(use of damane might be misleading, but the Seanchan just seem better organized and more disciplined)

Legion of the Dragon / Band of the Red Hand = 2

(it's unclear exactly how much of the advantage the Band gets comes from Mat, and how much is just the higher quality of soldier)

Ogier Gardener = 4

(includes local Ogier if they ever decide to actually DO anything)

 

And I'm not even gonna TRY to work channelers into this.  Ugh.

[dubz]

I don't think a trolloc and an aiel should be the same level

[RobertAlexWillis]

Not to be a pessimist, but any absolute number-based ranking system is going to be an oversimplification.

[demonspawn]

I think it's more a case of how effective the are working in units as the forces of shadow don't actually seem to operate together, especially Trollocs it's more a case of overwhelming the opposition with sheer numbers and brutality. 

[bcxanth]

Considering during the Battle of the Stone the soldiers seem to not really have a problem with the Trollocs, it's mostly the Myrddraal that give them issues, I'd put the Trollocs at maybe as much as a 1.5 in your system.