[Advanced] Old West Mischief Mafia - Town Wins!

Cuth · February 15, 2017

so nothing more productive than bashing your head against the brick wall that is this game

that said i'm all for procrastinating

and why not

Eldrick4221 · February 15, 2017

Like I said, I'll do it myself later. Prolly tomorrow.

Thanks for the offer, though.

Eldrick4221 · February 15, 2017

i apologize sincerely in advance for anyone reading these two pages

I don't :D

Cuth · February 15, 2017

i apologize sincerely in advance for anyone reading these two pages

I don't :D

i also sincerely apologize for his lack of apology, though it pains me

i mean what

we just talked about pizza and being tired and catching up

and did two of three and gave up on the other

over ~50 posts

Cuth · February 15, 2017

well g'night

enjoy your early morning whateverness and do it well

Eldrick4221 · February 15, 2017

Lol. I'll prolly dig into it again in a few hours.

Eldrick4221 · February 15, 2017

Night.

Cuth · February 15, 2017

Lol. I'll prolly dig into it again in a few hours.

a few hours are nothing when you have friends

and i have no idea why i said that

this may be a sign that i should go to sleep

yes yes i think that may be it

Sooh · February 15, 2017

lol that reads list make think wifi is town

I'm still not that great at reading her. Why do you think that?

My interpretation is:

If I scratch my head when I read her posts, and then I squint and try really hard and can sorta see what she's talking about, or why she would think so, she's town.

Sooh · February 15, 2017

I need to dig into a reread and look for who interacted and avoided NotBob.

But I hate rereads. I rarely finish them :/

i feel a strange sense of kinship with you

i also want pizza, but that's my fault

I has pizza >.> <.<

I haz Pizza...

<.<

>.>

Lizabeth · February 15, 2017

bam boom bam boom

thanks everyone

we got lucky

We did not. He was an easy pick and all three on the block are good candidates still.
Did you sus him before the wagon built up on him? Because I don't recall that ever.

And I was reading Darthe as stubborn town, but Eldrick's observation of his past behaviour as scum and the fact that he moved over to a new wagon despite the fact that he claims to still believe my/Mrsclov's slot to be scum doesn't make any sense.

If he thought both leading wagons were scum, and we were supposedly his strongest (practically only) scum reads all day (and we know that he likes to be right) and there was no danger of any other competing wagon....why not keep his vote on us since it shouldn't matter to him which one of us flipped?

I'm trying to follow your train of thought here, with the knowledge that NotBob is scum. If Darthe was scum, he would obviously care.

Town=he thought. Scum= he knew

This makes sense from town!Darthe pov but not scum!darthe

I'm guessing you've already caught up by this point and I'm hoping you understand why Darthe HAS to be scum. And i say that emphatically and I NEVER say that. Like, I'm always the person who says "you can never be 100% sure", but in this case, I'm sure.

Say you're town!Darthe. You've been crowing all day that you caught a wolf within the first 10 pages of d1. Case closed, people will thank you because you know for certain this wolf is going to flip red there is no doubt whatsover about it, no need to examine anyone else (except for that wolfy Eldrick who is probably their team mate).

Pretend you also had some vague concerns about another player named NotBob but you hadn't really done much to push it all day because you were damned and determined to get that wolfy Miss Kizzy Clov lynched so you could prove what a boss player you were having called them as wolfy all game.

You come into the thread when it's approaching end of day. You see 3 wagons: 1 on your strongest scum read, the one you've said you've had no doubts about whatsoever. One on your secondary scum read, and you see a lot of people saying maybe they could vote there too. The third one that's building on the guy you didn't really mention too much but supposedly had some vague concerns about that weren't important enough to pursue earlier in the day.

Now if you're town!Darthe, if you care at all about saving one of those three, do you move your vote from your surest scum read over to your (supposedly) third? Or do you stick to your strongest scum reads in hopes that your tunnel will be vindicated and you can prove you were right all along? Because really, what does it matter which one of them gets lynched if you think all 3 of them are scum.

However, if you're scum!Darthe and you know that you've been pushing a lynch on town all day long under the cover of them being the popular scum read in the thread, and then you see that the tide is shifting towards your scum buddy who has a good chance of flipping, being investigated, or being lynched the next day, do you leave your vote on someone who you know is going to flip town or take the risk of busing a buddy before the deal is sealed so you can claim town cred for being on the right lynch (and in Darthe's case, this is where you have to think like darthe and not a stronger player) insist that your strongest scum reads who you know are town should still be the lynches the next day?

It's bad play, yes. But he basically confirmed it by trying to lie to me about why he decided to vote notbob instead of me/mrsclov at the end of the day.

Lizabeth · February 15, 2017

It's been a while since mafia has kept me up late at night and woken me up with thoughts early in the morning, so thanks guys :P

Going to catch up, but I haz thoughts with links and stuff!

Lizabeth · February 15, 2017

i apologize sincerely in advance for anyone reading these two pages

I don't :D

i also sincerely apologize for his lack of apology, though it pains me

i mean what

we just talked about pizza and being tired and catching up

and did two of three and gave up on the other

over ~50 posts

lol

Lizabeth · February 15, 2017

I need to dig into a reread and look for who interacted and avoided NotBob.

But I hate rereads. I rarely finish them :/

i feel a strange sense of kinship with you

i also want pizza, but that's my fault

I has pizza >.> <.<

I haz Pizza...

<.<

>.>

I was waiting for this XD

Sooh · February 15, 2017

lol

also Liz and Mrs Clov

I will never not be amazed that people who need hydras are among the top posters usually.

(I have also been guilty of this)

Eldrick4221 · February 15, 2017

lol that reads list make think wifi is town

I'm still not that great at reading her. Why do you think that?

My interpretation is:

If I scratch my head when I read her posts, and then I squint and try really hard and can sorta see what she's talking about, or why she would think so, she's town.

as opposed to when she's scum?

Lizabeth · February 15, 2017

Okay, so here are some thoughts that I started on last night and added to this morning.

I was trying to find that wagon analysis that Seph posted earlier - I'm almost certain that seph posted this - starting back from when he, cuth, and eldrick dropped off our train and other people started suddenly piling on.

As I was lying in bed not able to sleep because I was thinking about mafia this morning, I was pondering this. And it made me take back my town read on DPR.

Because, imagine this. Say you're the members of the scum team. You've basically been coasting all game day because most of the focus has been on one main slot (me/mrsclov of course) and you've got a handy backup lynch on the side (Eldrick) in case the first wagon goes sideways at some point.

Town is doing a good job for you of keeping your focus there. All you have to do is keep on repeating how scummy that first wagon is, because that's pretty much the consensus in the crowd. And if you keep repeating the same things and ignoring the clarifications that you're given, you can keep that wagon on it's heels all game and say "see? they're not doing anything but defending themselves. total self-serving scum" (because town would never defend itself against a mislynch, of course ::P)

But hey wait a minute. These town patsies who were leading the wagon are actually starting to explore things with the easy lynchbait. Now they're starting to have doubts and actually consider other options. That easy lynch is no longer looking so easy, and your first and backup wagon are supporting each other, even though you were hoping to set them at each other's throats....people will stop being distracted and start looking elsewhere. Not good!

So what do you do? You push the attention back onto the distraction. You keep repeating the same mantras from earlier in the thread and ignore any progression in teh discussion since then. When you get called out on that, you just keep repeating that Miss Kizzy Clov is for certain scum and all their explanations/questions are bad and just shouldn't be listened to. Keep repeating it in hopes that people will keep the focus there, Miss Kizzy Clov will keep focusing on defending themselves, and no one bothers to look elsewhere.

So who was really invested in keeping the attention on MrsClov/me after Cuth, Seph, and Eldrick unvoted us and started to shift the conversation elsewhere?

Darthe is already a given. Notbob as well. But also look at what Crusher and DPR were doing at that point in the thread onwards. Tinker is always going to be floating in this pool for me because he basically did nothign but vote us and then try to undermine Seph's attempts to explore other options that weren't us/eldrick after the wagon on NotBob started building.

here are some of my observations:

From Darthe - remember to track his read on NotBob http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/100047-advanced-old-west-mischief-mafia-n1/?p=3756157

I don’t like this post from Crusher. Especially “I’m trying to convince myself it’s because he’s not reading)”. Wagon on us is declining, wagon on notbob is building: http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/100047-advanced-old-west-mischief-mafia-n1/?p=3756165

All of a sudden DPR is cooperative: http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/100047-advanced-old-west-mischief-mafia-n1/?p=3756174

Darthe switches over to NotBob after DPR does - it’s like they’ve decided to give up in their scum QT: http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/100047-advanced-old-west-mischief-mafia-n1/?p=3756177

Kronos’s explanation feels the most natural:

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/100047-advanced-old-west-mischief-mafia-n1/?p=3756196

Seph’s post flip reads list: http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/100047-advanced-old-west-mischief-mafia-n1/?p=3756263

Why did darthe move his vote to notbob if he thought we were scum too? Why not keep it a tie between scum?

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/100047-advanced-old-west-mischief-mafia-n1/?p=3756264

Good obs by seph re: DPR’s response to crusher

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/100047-advanced-old-west-mischief-mafia-n1/?p=3756265

Darthe tries to redirect attention from him and crusher to eldrick when talking to seph:

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/100047-advanced-old-west-mischief-mafia-n1/?p=3756286

How does darthe know crusher’s alignment?:

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/100047-advanced-old-west-mischief-mafia-n1/?p=3756286

Dice before the flip will only vote us or Eldrick

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/100047-advanced-old-west-mischief-mafia-n1/?p=3756121

But then refuses to consider seph’s plea to switch to eldrick saying he’s going to bed

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/100047-advanced-old-west-mischief-mafia-n1/?p=3756129

DPR encouraging seph’s case on eldrick and pushing away from notbob (ignoring previous cases already made on notbob)

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/100047-advanced-old-west-mischief-mafia-n1/?p=3756141

Tinker also redirecting towards eldrick away from notbob

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/100047-advanced-old-west-mischief-mafia-n1/?p=3756147

DPR wanting to lynch us for information - eldrick for information - not concerned about lynching for scum. Similar to previous statement I bolded where he basically said our alignment didn’t matter to him http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/100047-advanced-old-west-mischief-mafia-n1/?p=3756153

Maybe he’s just being helpful...but maybe this is the point at which the scum team really starts worrying about the shift in wagons and they know they have to make a decision soon

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/100047-advanced-old-west-mischief-mafia-n1/?p=3756155

Also notice that DPR backed off telling me how terrible I am after I started reading him as town?

I've already stated other observations in the thread regarding Crusher, so take those into consideration as well.

Eldrick4221 · February 15, 2017

bam boom bam boom

thanks everyone

we got lucky

We did not. He was an easy pick and all three on the block are good candidates still.
Did you sus him before the wagon built up on him? Because I don't recall that ever.

And I was reading Darthe as stubborn town, but Eldrick's observation of his past behaviour as scum and the fact that he moved over to a new wagon despite the fact that he claims to still believe my/Mrsclov's slot to be scum doesn't make any sense.

If he thought both leading wagons were scum, and we were supposedly his strongest (practically only) scum reads all day (and we know that he likes to be right) and there was no danger of any other competing wagon....why not keep his vote on us since it shouldn't matter to him which one of us flipped?

I'm trying to follow your train of thought here, with the knowledge that NotBob is scum. If Darthe was scum, he would obviously care.

Town=he thought. Scum= he knew

This makes sense from town!Darthe pov but not scum!darthe

I'm guessing you've already caught up by this point and I'm hoping you understand why Darthe HAS to be scum. And i say that emphatically and I NEVER say that. Like, I'm always the person who says "you can never be 100% sure", but in this case, I'm sure.

Say you're town!Darthe. You've been crowing all day that you caught a wolf within the first 10 pages of d1. Case closed, people will thank you because you know for certain this wolf is going to flip red there is no doubt whatsover about it, no need to examine anyone else (except for that wolfy Eldrick who is probably their team mate).

Pretend you also had some vague concerns about another player named NotBob but you hadn't really done much to push it all day because you were damned and determined to get that wolfy Miss Kizzy Clov lynched so you could prove what a boss player you were having called them as wolfy all game.

You come into the thread when it's approaching end of day. You see 3 wagons: 1 on your strongest scum read, the one you've said you've had no doubts about whatsoever. One on your secondary scum read, and you see a lot of people saying maybe they could vote there too. The third one that's building on the guy you didn't really mention too much but supposedly had some vague concerns about that weren't important enough to pursue earlier in the day.

Now if you're town!Darthe, if you care at all about saving one of those three, do you move your vote from your surest scum read over to your (supposedly) third? Or do you stick to your strongest scum reads in hopes that your tunnel will be vindicated and you can prove you were right all along? Because really, what does it matter which one of them gets lynched if you think all 3 of them are scum.

However, if you're scum!Darthe and you know that you've been pushing a lynch on town all day long under the cover of them being the popular scum read in the thread, and then you see that the tide is shifting towards your scum buddy who has a good chance of flipping, being investigated, or being lynched the next day, do you leave your vote on someone who you know is going to flip town or take the risk of busing a buddy before the deal is sealed so you can claim town cred for being on the right lynch (and in Darthe's case, this is where you have to think like darthe and not a stronger player) insist that your strongest scum reads who you know are town should still be the lynches the next day?

It's bad play, yes. But he basically confirmed it by trying to lie to me about why he decided to vote notbob instead of me/mrsclov at the end of the day.

Except that it makes more sense for town!Darthe to move from your train to notbob's than it does for scum!darthe.

...at least it would for a normal player. Trying to figure out Darthe motivation is pointless.

I dunno. It just feels wrong.

Town!Darthe wouldn't care which died. They are both scum to him. Scum!darthe would know better, unless you are also scum.

Lizabeth · February 15, 2017

lol

also Liz and Mrs Clov

I will never not be amazed that people who need hydras are among the top posters usually.

(I have also been guilty of this)

Neither of us was intending to be high posting in this game, I swear!

Things happen :unsure:

Eldrick4221 · February 15, 2017

I won't fight Darthe lynch. The evidence against him is pretty bad. But I don't endorse it either. Occam's razor says he's town. That scum wouldn't kill their own teammate over the #1 scum read of the day.

Sooh · February 15, 2017

lol that reads list make think wifi is town

I'm still not that great at reading her. Why do you think that?

My interpretation is:

If I scratch my head when I read her posts, and then I squint and try really hard and can sorta see what she's talking about, or why she would think so, she's town.

as opposed to when she's scum?

I actually can't remember her as scum. I just think that it's harder to fake this level of behavior when you have a QT of extra information to go by. My analysis will work until she fools me. Then I'll reevaluate.

Lizabeth · February 15, 2017

bam boom bam boom

thanks everyone

we got lucky

We did not. He was an easy pick and all three on the block are good candidates still.
Did you sus him before the wagon built up on him? Because I don't recall that ever.

And I was reading Darthe as stubborn town, but Eldrick's observation of his past behaviour as scum and the fact that he moved over to a new wagon despite the fact that he claims to still believe my/Mrsclov's slot to be scum doesn't make any sense.

If he thought both leading wagons were scum, and we were supposedly his strongest (practically only) scum reads all day (and we know that he likes to be right) and there was no danger of any other competing wagon....why not keep his vote on us since it shouldn't matter to him which one of us flipped?

I'm trying to follow your train of thought here, with the knowledge that NotBob is scum. If Darthe was scum, he would obviously care.

Town=he thought. Scum= he knew

This makes sense from town!Darthe pov but not scum!darthe

I'm guessing you've already caught up by this point and I'm hoping you understand why Darthe HAS to be scum. And i say that emphatically and I NEVER say that. Like, I'm always the person who says "you can never be 100% sure", but in this case, I'm sure.

Say you're town!Darthe. You've been crowing all day that you caught a wolf within the first 10 pages of d1. Case closed, people will thank you because you know for certain this wolf is going to flip red there is no doubt whatsover about it, no need to examine anyone else (except for that wolfy Eldrick who is probably their team mate).

Pretend you also had some vague concerns about another player named NotBob but you hadn't really done much to push it all day because you were damned and determined to get that wolfy Miss Kizzy Clov lynched so you could prove what a boss player you were having called them as wolfy all game.

You come into the thread when it's approaching end of day. You see 3 wagons: 1 on your strongest scum read, the one you've said you've had no doubts about whatsoever. One on your secondary scum read, and you see a lot of people saying maybe they could vote there too. The third one that's building on the guy you didn't really mention too much but supposedly had some vague concerns about that weren't important enough to pursue earlier in the day.

Now if you're town!Darthe, if you care at all about saving one of those three, do you move your vote from your surest scum read over to your (supposedly) third? Or do you stick to your strongest scum reads in hopes that your tunnel will be vindicated and you can prove you were right all along? Because really, what does it matter which one of them gets lynched if you think all 3 of them are scum.

However, if you're scum!Darthe and you know that you've been pushing a lynch on town all day long under the cover of them being the popular scum read in the thread, and then you see that the tide is shifting towards your scum buddy who has a good chance of flipping, being investigated, or being lynched the next day, do you leave your vote on someone who you know is going to flip town or take the risk of busing a buddy before the deal is sealed so you can claim town cred for being on the right lynch (and in Darthe's case, this is where you have to think like darthe and not a stronger player) insist that your strongest scum reads who you know are town should still be the lynches the next day?

It's bad play, yes. But he basically confirmed it by trying to lie to me about why he decided to vote notbob instead of me/mrsclov at the end of the day.

Except that it makes more sense for town!Darthe to move from your train to notbob's than it does for scum!darthe.

...at least it would for a normal player. Trying to figure out Darthe motivation is pointless.

I dunno. It just feels wrong.

Town!Darthe wouldn't care which died. They are both scum to him. Scum!darthe would know better, unless you are also scum.

The bolded is the point.

Town!Darthe has nothing to lose if any of the three of us - notbob, you, us - got flipped if he thinks we're all scum anyway. You move your vote to save a town read or a weaker scum read. You don't move from a "sure" scum read to your weakest scum read.

scum!darthe is panicking and going *ohcrapohcrapohcrap if i'm on the wrong end of this lynch people are going to start looking at me".

I believe there was a decision made in the scum QT at a certain point to get ahead of the sure lynch on notbob. He's a goon and more expendable than one of their power roles from deeper scrutiny.

I have to look at the final wagon again, but at one point darthe, crusher, and DPR were all on my/MrsClov's wagon. They had nowhere to go to save notbob except to jump onto you, but your wagon wasn't gaining traction. If they all jumped from our wagon to your wagon to save notbob and you flipped town, then they wind up having basically outed themselves, because it would take all/most of them to secure a lynch on you over notbob.

I forgot to include in my summary above about people who tried to keep the focus on me and MrsClov and you without exploring anywhere else that that groupincludes Dice as well. I really haven't wanted to read Dice as scum, and I equate stubbornness with town!dice. Never played against scum!Dice. But his focus has been off both before and after the flip. The narrowness of his postflip focus is particularly concerning. When dice played at PerC he complained that the players there don't do wagon analysis. When I finally get him to respond to my post asking about his broad thoughts, there is no recognition of what happened in the end of day wagon buildups. Only a focus on you/us - which had been the focus of most of the game already - and saying seph is sure town, which ummm...duh! Obvious statements are obvious.

So for me Darthe, Diice, Crusher, DPR and Tinker all need looking into. Not all of them can be scum, but Darthe is an absolute must lynch at this point. The fact that he lied about his motivations for unvoting me/mrsclov AND that he basically disappeared after being caught out in that lie when he's been all bravado and bluster and in my face all game long seals it. You were right. MrsClov was right. I was wrong. And I'm okay with that.

Sooh · February 15, 2017

I really need to sit down and read Darthe and Eldrick, but I'm sorta also hoping to be the night kill so I don't have to :tongue:

I'm bad.

Lizabeth · February 15, 2017

I won't fight Darthe lynch. The evidence against him is pretty bad. But I don't endorse it either. Occam's razor says he's town. That scum wouldn't kill their own teammate over the #1 scum read of the day.

Trust me on this one. You were right.

And I really hope you aren't deepwolfing it right now...but I don't think so. I think you'll see it if you look closely enough. Don't let yourself get distracted.

Sooh · February 15, 2017

I really need to sit down and read Darthe and Eldrick, but I'm sorta also hoping to be the night kill so I don't have to

I'm bad.

Why Eldrick? I decided he was town earlier barring some real shenanigans.

Ok, I need to read Darthe, Crusher, DPR at least. Prolly also the hydra but they have too many posts.

[Advanced] Old West Mischief Mafia - Town Wins!

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