The One Power (Full Book Spoilers)--No Balefire!

[Luckers]

I'm not ignoring anything.  I'm even willing to allow an additional 90,000 such non-actives.

 

According to you, the Aiel and the Sea Folk are nearly 100% efficient at finding all their girls who can channel.  I's agree with that.  We know that the Seanchan test all of their female population and miss very few.  We also know that among the Seanchan, damane outnumber sul'dam, meaning that they have more sparkers than learners.

 

 

Firstly, the sul'dam outnumber the damane considerably. This is stated time and again. Here "Many sul'dam will wear your bracelet over the years - there are

always many more sul'dam than damane" [Renna, tGH]. And thats including the sul'dam who don't choose to do other things like Fortuona.

 

Secondly, the Wise One population is exactly perfect--400 Wise Ones in a clan at one percent (double to include men means a clan should roughly number 80,000. Times that by 12 and you get the total Aiel population of 960,000. There are roughly 500,000 alga'd'siswai, meaning a little over half are spearfighters. That fits precisely with what Perrin's scouts witness in the septs approaching Malden (between 12,500 and 15,000 Aiel with between 6,000 and 8,000 algai'd'siswai respectively).

 

So the numbers for the Aiel work at least.

 

How is it that Randland is 180 degrees out from that?  You want us to believe that in Randland, Learners outnumber Sparkers by, what, 200-300 to one?  That the White Tower is so incompetent that they can't find more than one in three hundred learners?  Or, do you believe that they simply ignore all learners?

 

They do in fact simply ignore all learners--in terms of learners they train only those who approach--in effect the Aes Sedai are made up of 1% of the girls who, aged between 14 and 18, had the guts to venture out into a very dangerous world seeking out the most feared institution in the land to gain training in becoming something their mothers probably scared them with as children.

 

Do I have a problem with the Tower being as weak as it is? Not a bit.

 

There are also mitigating factors. For instance the Tower itself should number around 2,000 (without the Oaths). We also have to add the 1,870 channelers that didn't make it through their training (maybe bring that up to 2,000. We gotta assume some girls didn't join the Kin).

 

That leaves us with the Tower, based on their old standards, having trained 4,000. If there are 10 million women in Randland (an estimate I make based on the Australian population size and layout. Like Australia Randland has vast tracks of virtually uninhabited land offset by dense metropolitan areas. Australia has this because of the desert conditions of central Australia, Randland because of the obscure population decline since Hawkwing's day (I still reckon thats the Dark One's doing, but whatever).

 

So yeah, assuming 10 million for argument, thats 100,000 female channelers. Of which 4,000 happened to have the guts to approach the Tower in the small window they offered for training. So the Tower found 4% of girls.

 

Consider it another way--say the Tower did randomly decide to do a systematic search. They went to a village of say a thousand women. Only ten of those women would have the ability, and at best one or two would be in the age bracket. And quite frequently (38% of the time) those one or two elligable girls would be below the cut off level.

 

You can see why the Aes Sedai might have assumed that its better to wait on girls to approach.

 

There's incompetent and then there's USELESS.

 

I'm more than willing to concede that the WT is incompetent, just not that incompetent.  Not 1 in 300 or 400 incompetent.  If they're that bad, they're a liability not an asset for TG.

 

It's actually about 4 in every 100. Its not so much incompetence either--they arn't trying and failing, they arn't trying at all. The word your looking for is stupid. Or perhaps 'foolishly adhereing to custom without thought'.

[WWWwombat]

So far we have only heard of one male sparker out of something like 500 channelers at the Black Tower as of WH.  If you want to say they may have found more, remember that Taim is able to bring 200 channelers to Dumai's Wells later in the same book that Narishma is introduced.

[Nightstrike]

How is it that Randland is 180 degrees out from that?  You want us to believe that in Randland, Learners outnumber Sparkers by, what, 200-300 to one?  That the White Tower is so incompetent that they can't find more than one in three hundred learners?  Or, do you believe that they simply ignore all learners?

 

They do in fact simply ignore all learners--in terms of learners they train only those who approach--in effect the Aes Sedai are made up of 1% of the girls who, aged between 14 and 18, had the guts to venture out into a very dangerous world seeking out the most feared institution in the land to gain training in becoming something their mothers probably scared them with as children.

I don't agree with that. Why would they ignore all learners? They don't.

 

There are also mitigating factors. For instance the Tower itself should number around 2,000 (without the Oaths). We also have to add the 1,870 channelers that didn't make it through their training (maybe bring that up to 2,000. We gotta assume some girls didn't join the Kin).

Some get burned out, killed, or don't make it through the testing ter'angreal alive.

 

 

So yeah, assuming 10 million for argument, thats 100,000 female channelers. Of which 4,000 happened to have the guts to approach the Tower in the small window they offered for training. So the Tower found 4% of girls.

We don't know what the population is. I'm sure there are girls that simply refuse to go to the Tower (whatever they claim among themselves).

 

 

[Luckers]

I don't agree with that. Why would they ignore all learners? They don't.I don't agree with that. Why would they ignore all learners? They don't.

 

In terms of the general population they only test the learners that approach them. The rest they ignore. As for why they do that, they believe that it is better for them to wait for girls to come to them because it shows that they have strong wills. 'The life of an Aes Sedai is not easy... blah blah blah'.

 

Its a silly idea. They can simply weed out the weak willed as they go, if they care so much about the issue. But nevertheless thats what they used to (and some like Romanda still do) believe.

 

Some get burned out, killed, or don't make it through the testing ter'angreal alive.

 

Burned out or killed don't really happen in the Tower. At least not enough to be statistically relevant. But yes, the ones lost to the testing ter'angreal do apply--that being said some Wise One's are lost to Rhuidean.

 

Things equal out, and since I didn't have the numbers to judge that I left it to the additional 120 I added to the non-Tower Tower-trained channelers.

 

We don't know what the population is. I'm sure there are girls that simply refuse to go to the Tower (whatever they claim among themselves).

 

The first point is true. For the sake of argument I proffered a guess based on Australia which has a similar land mass and population distribution as stated in Randland. I was clear on that.

 

The second point doesn't really say much--some girls refuse? What does that have to do with population, or numbers in the Tower? We know some sparkers refuse training. Not often--the Aes Sedai usually get them into training whatever they want. But the numbers are so minor as to be not important.

 

The number of learners that simply never think to go to the Tower to be tested is much more considerable.

[Nightstrike]

TPoD, 30:  (concerning the “too old” novices in Egwene’s camp)

“Most by far would never wear the shawl.”

– ˃ Compare that to 62.5 percent of all being able to wear the shawl.

 

 

 

 

 

[Nightstrike]

In terms of the general population they only test the learners that approach them. The rest they ignore. As for why they do that, they believe that it is better for them to wait for girls to come to them because it shows that they have strong wills.

What evidence do you have? They are even commenting on who's a sparker. If all were sparkers, then why comment on it at all?

 

 

The second point doesn't really say much--some girls refuse? What does that have to do with population, or numbers in the Tower?

Those that refuse wouldn't become Aes Sedai.

 

We know some sparkers refuse training. Not often--the Aes Sedai usually get them into training whatever they want. But the numbers are so minor as to be not important.

There must be a higher fraction of learners that refuse training than there are sparkers.

 

 

[coteaz]

Well the Aes Sedai's system of giving the shawl to only people with a certain strength is flawed, look at the age of legends, no matter what strength a channeler had they still become aes sedai.

[Nightstrike]

Well the Aes Sedai's system of giving the shawl to only people with a certain strength is flawed, look at the age of legends, no matter what strength a channeler had they still become aes sedai.

I definately agree on that. Go Egwene!

[Luckers]

Quote from: Luckers on Today at 05:52:41 PM

In terms of the general population they only test the learners that approach them. The rest they ignore. As for why they do that, they believe that it is better for them to wait for girls to come to them because it shows that they have strong wills.

 

 

What evidence do you have? They are even commenting on who's a sparker. If all were sparkers, then why comment on it at all?

 

Its stated time and again throughout the series. The only ones Aes Sedai approach and attempt to force are new sparkers--and that is due to the danger they represent to themselves and others.

 

Learners, however, they let approach the Tower on their own terms, based on what I've stated above. Only in recent books have exceptions been made--Verin and Alanna do a systematic testing of the Two Rivers, and the Rebels begin riding out to towns and villages near Salidar--and even that upsets most sisters.

 

Quote

The second point doesn't really say much--some girls refuse? What does that have to do with population, or numbers in the Tower?

 

 

Those that refuse wouldn't become Aes Sedai.

 

If they do it stringently enough, yes I suppose they would. But that'd a handful of sparkers at most.

 

Quote

We know some sparkers refuse training. Not often--the Aes Sedai usually get them into training whatever they want. But the numbers are so minor as to be not important.

 

 

There must be a higher fraction of learners that refuse training than there are sparkers.

 

Once again, traditionally learners arn't 'offered' training--they are only trained when they approach the Tower. I doubt they would approach the Tower and then refuse upon arrival.

 

Well the Aes Sedai's system of giving the shawl to only people with a certain strength is flawed, look at the age of legends, no matter what strength a channeler had they still become aes sedai.

 

I think Sorilea stands as proof-positive of what thats a stupid tradition. Or Alise.

[coteaz]

Exactly.

[Nightstrike]

What evidence do you have? They are even commenting on who's a sparker. If all were sparkers, then why comment on it at all?

Its stated time and again throughout the series. The only ones Aes Sedai approach and attempt to force are new sparkers--and that is due to the danger they represent to themselves and others.

Quotes? Because I've never seen it.

[WWWwombat]

So yeah Bob's estimate was way off because there are tons of learners and even some sparkers we don't know about that he didn't include and there's no reliable way to figure out how many of them there are.

[Arani Lepenque Aes Sedai]

If so, that still doesn't explain why Randland has hundreds of times more Learners than Sparkers and Seanchan does not.  naath, each sul'dam has a number of damane.  The damane clearly outnumber the sul'dam.

 

None of it adds up.

 

Hello....  Each damane has several sul'dam because each damane lives up to 6-7 times as long as any sul'dam, by virtue of being able to touch the source actively while sul'dam can't.

 

But in TGH, it is mentioned by Egwene that Renna has said that there are far more sul'dam than damane.

 

And in Randland, the majority of those training in the WT are usually non-sparkers, because they usually approach the Tower to seek training.  Most will never touch the Power if they never approached the Tower.

[Nightstrike]

Proof that Aes Sedai actually recruited girls actively:

 

TPoD, 30:   (concerning the “too old” novices in Egwene’s camp)

“Most by far would never wear the shawl.”

– ˃ Compare that to 62.5 percent of all being able to wear the shawl.

 

For over 3000 years, though, Aes Sedai have been removing men who actually learned to channel from the gene pool.  They have been very efficient at this.  As a result, the “present day” sees about 1% of the population who can learn to channel, with a much, much smaller percentage of that being born with the spark.

 

 

 

[WWWwombat]

Proof that Aes Sedai actually recruited girls actively:

 

TPoD, 30:   (concerning the “too old” novices in Egwene’s camp)

“Most by far would never wear the shawl.”

– ˃ Compare that to 62.5 percent of all being able to wear the shawl.

 

How is that proof of anything and what is/where did you get the 62.5% number?

[Nightstrike]

Hello....  Each damane has several sul'dam because each damane lives up to 6-7 times as long as any sul'dam, by virtue of being able to touch the source actively while sul'dam can't.

 

But in TGH, it is mentioned by Egwene that Renna has said that there are far more sul'dam than damane.

More proof that learners outnumber sparkers by VERY far.

 

[Arani Lepenque Aes Sedai]

Hello....  Each damane has several sul'dam because each damane lives up to 6-7 times as long as any sul'dam, by virtue of being able to touch the source actively while sul'dam can't.

 

But in TGH, it is mentioned by Egwene that Renna has said that there are far more sul'dam than damane.

More proof that sparkers outnumber learners by VERY far.

 

You mean learners outnumbering sparkers....

 

Sul'dam are learners.  Damane are sparkers.

[Nightstrike]

How is that proof of anything and what is/where did you get the 62.5% number?

Not by itself. Together those two show us that there must has been active recruiting going on. The 62.5 percent is from RJ's blog answer to some "Gyrehead".

 

You mean learners outnumbering sparkers....

Yeah, silly me.  :-[

[WWWwombat]

How is that proof of anything and what is/where did you get the 62.5% number?

Not by itself. Together those two show us that there must has been active recruiting going on. The 62.5 percent is from RJ's blog answer to some "Gyrehead".

 

They show nothing of the sort.

[Nightstrike]

They show nothing of the sort.

Oh, but they do.

 

Lets say 10 percent (in reality it must be far less than that) are sparkers and 90 percent are learners. Even if all sparkers are strong enough to earn the shawl, 58 percent of the learners remaining would be strong enough to earn the shawl. Compare that to "most by far would never wear the shawl".

[WWWwombat]

In Egwene's estimation, a far lower than average number of the new novices would be able to earn the shawl.  That proves nothing other than that in Egwene's estimation, a far lower than average number of the new novices would be able earn the shawl.  Meanwhile, numerous Aes Sedai talking about how they didn't actively recruit before seems to indicate they didn't actively recruit before.

[Nightstrike]

In Egwene's estimation, a far lower than average number of the new novices would be able to earn the shawl.

Quotes?

 

Meanwhile, numerous Aes Sedai talking about how they didn't actively recruit before seems to indicate they didn't actively recruit before.

It's true that they didn't put as much effort into it as they should. But obviously they recruited among the ones they encountered. They should have done more, though.

 

[WWWwombat]

I was referring to your quote.  It was an Egwene PoV.

[Nightstrike]

Did you mean this one.

 

TPoD, 30:   (concerning the “too old” novices in Egwene’s camp)

“Most by far would never wear the shawl.”

– ˃ Compare that to 62.5 percent of all being able to wear the shawl.

 

It says that most "by far" of the new novices would never wear the shawl.

 

[WWWwombat]

Yes that one, which combined with the 62.5% figure (if I understand it correctly) seems to say that a far lower than average number of the novices would be able to earn the shawl.