Most Severe Aiel War possible

[Quixotic]

How is it possible for the Aiel war to be many times more devestating and destructive than it actually was in the original plot ?

 

While I am aware that a more severe Aiel War might actually delay the birth of Rand Al Thor , is it possible for an Aiel War that was fought from the Spine of the World to Toman's head in another portal stone world , and how would such a war change the future of that portal stone world ?

 

The war ended when Laman Damondred was killed , so the only way I can see it being dragged out is if Laman Damondred stayed in Tar Valon during the Battle of the Shining Wars , and , once the Alliance's armies have been defeated comprehnsively , somehow flee from Tar Valon alive .

 

Would this accelerate the depopulation of Randland , and would the Seanchans find a devestated land filled with shadows of Nations when they launch their Return ?

[Quixotic]

May I know whether anyone has any opinions on this?

[Kalatai]

Hypothetically speaking...with the portal stones you can visit any reality stemmed from the original, but the (what was it?) hazier it seems the further from the true world it is.  Any other reality is possible, even one where it showed that the Trollocs had won the Trolloc Wars.

 

The same could be asked about this world, the most common it seems is: "What if Hitler won?"  The people in the Wheel of Time just managed to devise a way of visiting those other paths of existence.  "What if...?"

 

You're just letting your mind wander:)

[Quixotic]

Hitler had little chance of winning world war II , but that's diverging from the topic posited.

 

I was just wondering what would happen if Laman Damondred made a different decision. Instead of fleeing to Tar Valon , what if he fled to Tanchinco or Bandan Eban in Arad Doman ?( And by ship , and the alternate pattern did not sink his ship into the sea of storms.)

 

After all , as far as we know , both could be equally possible events , and the Aiel would have to hack their way through most of the more heavily populated south in such a scenario...

 

Thanks for the replies.

[Luckers]

The reality of such a scenario is unlikely. Firstly, Laman did not flee. He commanded Cairhein from the beginning, and whilst militiristically he fell back, he did not personally run from the fight--which is, inevitably, why he died. The likliehood of the battle reaching beyond where it did are slim, since had Laman fled beyond those points his claim of authority became void.

 

More to the point, the Aiel did not slay civilians, just soldiers.

 

I'm not sure what you seek in this thread Quixotic, but it is insanely unlikely.

[cloglord]

I agree with Luckers here, in fact I'm not sure why the Aiel war lasted as long as it did.  If you consider the speed in which the Shaido managed to conquer Carhein in TFoH, It amazes me that any nation managed to raise an army quick enough to come to Carhien's aid.  Of course in TFoH, Carhien had been wracked by civil war, but if you consider that the Aiel war was a war versus four clans instead of just one, I think it is hard to understand why the Aiel didn't just overrun Carhien, burn the topless towers, and kill Laman, in his bed.  I mean they took the stone of Tear in one night with a couple hundred Aiel, really how hard could it be for the Aiel to kill one dude in the Sun Palace.  Thom managed to kill the King Galdrian with a rumor, Rand managed to kill Colavere with vocational counseling. 

 

I just don't see why the Aiel would have that much problem killing a Carhienien ruler, it doesn't seem to hard.

[Davian93]

Thom managed to kill the King Galdrian with a rumor, Rand managed to kill Colavere with vocational counseling. 

 

Actually, Thom almost certainly killed Galldrian with his knives and bare hands.  At least that how it reads in between the lines.  I know not of this rumor of which you speak.

[Quixotic]

The reality of such a scenario is unlikely. Firstly, Laman did not flee. He commanded Cairhein from the beginning, and whilst militiristically he fell back, he did not personally run from the fight--which is, inevitably, why he died. The likliehood of the battle reaching beyond where it did are slim, since had Laman fled beyond those points his claim of authority became void.

 

More to the point, the Aiel did not slay civilians, just soldiers.

 

I'm not sure what you seek in this thread Quixotic, but it is insanely unlikely.

 

I was just curious as to how much damage the Aiel War could cause at the plausible worse . Do you think that it could be possible for the Aiel to suceed in burning Tear and Camelyn down along with Cairhien if Laman retreated deeper into Andor or Tear  ? Also , what if Laman somehowsurvives the battle of Tar Valon for several more days ? How long would it take before the Colation arrayed against the Aiel collapses ? In New Spring , Lan mentioned that half of his force perished in three days . How heavy were casualties in other units though ?

 

 

Given how quickly the Shaido overran Cairhien , If all the clans for some reason ( and three thousand years is a long time...) in between the Breaking and Tarmon Gai Don decided to invade Randland comperehensively , it is likely that they could overrun everynation between the Spine and Aryth Ocean with relative ease.

 

How did Laman Damondred escape from Cairhien alive anyway?

 

 

[Luckers]

in fact I'm not sure why the Aiel war lasted as long as it did.  If you consider the speed in which the Shaido managed to conquer Carhein in TFoH, It amazes me that any nation managed to raise an army quick enough to come to Carhien's aid.

 

Cairhein fell quickly in the Aiel War. The Grand Alliance did not form until after its fall. Furthermore the reason the war continued is because Laman did not die when Cairhein fell.. which makes sense based on what we knew of his nature.

 

I was just curious as to how much damage the Aiel War could cause at the plausible worse . Do you think that it could be possible for the Aiel to suceed in burning Tear and Camelyn down along with Cairhien if Laman retreated deeper into Andor or Tear  ?

 

Actually the Aiel entered both Tear and Andor. Furthermore, the burning of Cairhein was specific and controlled. Their contempt of the Treekillers nonwithstanding, their protection of the library makes it clear that their actions with the Topless Towers were entirely intentional.

 

Also , what if Laman somehowsurvives the battle of Tar Valon for several more days ? How long would it take before the Colation arrayed against the Aiel collapses ? In New Spring , Lan mentioned that half of his force perished in three days . How heavy were casualties in other units though ?

 

Ultimately we know that the Aiel retreated because they were satisfied. Four clans can marshall around 145,000 algai'd'siswai, which means that against the united forces of the the Westlands (which can muster around 1,112,000 soldiers (estimate based on my military roundup thread)) they did not have the numbers to succeed in an all out invasion.

 

How did Laman Damondred escape from Cairhien alive anyway?

 

He's King. There are always plans laid out for the evacuation of the ruling body in the event of catastrophie.

[Quixotic]

There were no more than one hundered thousand spears west of the Dragonwall at anyone time .

 

Regardless , if Laman was wounded on the third day ( What was the manner of his death in anycase) instead of being killed , the battle might have dragged on longer .

 

Let's assume that he was severely wounded ( but not mortally) on the third day instead of being killed . He is brought back to Tar Valon for healing , and the battle drags on for days more . Could the Aiel Sucessfully besiege Tar Valon and defeat the Colation armies ?

[RobertAlexWillis]

Regardless , if Laman was wounded on the third day ( What was the manner of his death in anycase) instead of being killed , the battle might have dragged on longer .

 

Yes.  If things had gone differently, then things would have gone differently ...

 

Could the Aiel Sucessfully besiege Tar Valon and defeat the Colation armies?

 

No.

[Trib4l]

Could the Aiel Sucessfully besiege Tar Valon and defeat the Colation armies?

No.

 

And not just because they don't seem to care for using siege weapons...they clearly revered Aes Sedai prior to Rand's kidnapping and would not attack them. That of course has clearly changed, but I doubt they would attack, and an attack without the aid of the Wise Ones would definitely fail.

[Davian93]

Ultimately we know that the Aiel retreated because they were satisfied. Four clans can marshall around 145,000 algai'd'siswai, which means that against the united forces of the the Westlands (which can muster around 1,112,000 soldiers (estimate based on my military roundup thread)) they did not have the numbers to succeed in an all out invasion.

 

The problem is that number of spears would not be that high.  Those 4 clans would have had to leave sufficient forces back in the Waste to prevent the other clans from taking advantage in their absence.

[Quixotic]

Regardless , if Laman was wounded on the third day ( What was the manner of his death in anycase) instead of being killed , the battle might have dragged on longer .

 

Yes.  If things had gone differently, then things would have gone differently ...

 

Could the Aiel Sucessfully besiege Tar Valon and defeat the Colation armies?

 

No.

 

Would the Aiel have been able to deal a defeat to the armies arrayed to them at the very least? Also , in the scenario where Laman Damondred takes refuge in Tar Valon ( Whether due to injuries or otherwise) , how would the Aiel Respond?

[RobertAlexWillis]

Would the Aiel have been able to deal a defeat to the armies arrayed to them at the very least?

 

If they had pressed the matter to its military conclusion, and both sides committed fully, it probably would have ended in a very, very bloody draw, on that particular field.

 

Also , in the scenario where Laman Damondred takes refuge in Tar Valon ( Whether due to injuries or otherwise) , how would the Aiel Respond?

 

If the Aes Sedai were willing to let him stay indefinitely, then the Aiel probably could not have taken him.  The Aiel were not equipped for, or experienced in, major siege warfare.  They did not possess the nautical experience necessary to block the harbors, and were very, very reluctant to cross the Aes Sedai.  Frankly, I'm not sure what their response would have been ... it very well could have splintered what was never a terribly firm alliance to begin with.  Whether or not they stayed together would have depended largely on Janduin ... and if Shaiel was killed, he would not have been in any condition to lead, apparently.

 

But then, the Aes Sedai were never likely to offer Laman Damodred sanctuary.  He probably led the Aiel to Tar Valon with the hope of forcing the Aes Sedai to take a side, but he was still outside the Shining Walls when the time came.  Given Moiraine's thoughts in NS, ch 2, at least some of the Aes Sedai know that the war is Laman's fault personally.

 

Obviously a worst case scenario for Randland would be that all the clans got pissed off enough to come back over the Dragonwall and duke it out.  Since that would have ended with such a bloodbath that neither side could really claim true victory at the end of it, the Wise Ones certainly never would have let it happen.  Besides which, it doesn't really fit ji'e'toh ... which is why it didn't happen in the first place.

 

With every "what if" scenario, there are reasons why it didn't happen that way.  So, basically, this is pointless.  You dismissed the Hitler comparison by saying "Hitler had little chance of winning world war II".  Well, the same applies to these "what if" scenarios ... things were pretty unlikely to fall out any way other than the way they did.

[Luckers]

There were no more than one hundered thousand spears west of the Dragonwall at anyone time .

 

I can definately see the four clans leaving behind algai'd'siswai to guard their holds which explains the missing 45,000, but I am curious as to what basis you have for that statement. When is it said there were no more that one hundred thousand spears?

 

Regardless , if Laman was wounded on the third day ( What was the manner of his death in anycase) instead of being killed , the battle might have dragged on longer .

 

That seems self evident... whats the issue?

 

Let's assume that he was severely wounded ( but not mortally) on the third day instead of being killed . He is brought back to Tar Valon for healing , and the battle drags on for days more . Could the Aiel Sucessfully besiege Tar Valon and defeat the Colation armies ?

 

No. Firstly they were outnumbered. The Shining Walls would be hard to break even if beseigers had superior numbers, lacking that it becomes absurd. Secondly, the Aiel would not have attacked the city of the Aes Sedai.

 

Would the Aiel have been able to deal a defeat to the armies arrayed to them at the very least? Also , in the scenario where Laman Damondred takes refuge in Tar Valon ( Whether due to injuries or otherwise) , how would the Aiel Respond?

 

Again, no. Their skill and intelligence meant they were not easily defeated, but the numbers in play make it impossible for the Aiel to win.

 

As for how the Aiel would respond to Laman having Aes Sedai sanctuary... I think Robert gave you a much better answer than i could phrase.

 

 

[ajfurst]

How is it possible for the Aiel war to be many times more devestating and destructive than it actually was in the original plot ?

 

The war ended when Laman Damondred was killed , so the only way I can see it being dragged out is if Laman Damondred stayed in Tar Valon during the Battle of the Shining Wars , and , once the Alliance's armies have been defeated comprehnsively , somehow flee from Tar Valon alive .

The Aiel weren't interested in destroying armies sent against them as such, only getting to Laman, which required going through said armies. If Laman managed to do 'around the Randland in 80 days' then more lands/armies could have been wrecked.

 

If you are talking about a worst possible Aiel War, without the rationale being the constraint of killing Laman, then it could be much more severe.

 

Obviously one with all 12 clans involved (a pre-Couladin Shaido) wouldn't have had to worry about keeping clan holds safe back in the Waste and could have brought everything across the dragonwall.

 

If that had occurred for some reason in a parallel world, then if it'd been, say just before the 'real' worlds Aiel War, with the large number of dead nations, then they could probably have eventually destroyed every country if they wanted to, but at it'd have been at a high cost - a phyric victory.

 

On the other hand if they'd wanted to conquer the lands, that I think they could have done a lot more easily - in a similar style to the Seanchan in some respects. Ie. defeat armies, but allow those houses/lands that would swear to obey them to keep their power mostly. We know lands like Murandy, Altara, Cairhein, Tear, Tarabon and Arad Doman all are filled with scheming lords/ladies where plenty would jump at the chance. Provided it wasn't a war of destruction I'd have expected only Andor, Amadacia and the borderlands to not have traitors in their midsts. And if the Aiel had conquered the likes of Cairhein, Altara, Tear and Murandy before the borderlands and Andor joined the fight then it'd have been too late to stop them.

[Quixotic]

Thanks for all the replies . They have  certainly been enjoyable and intresting and rather thorough.

[RobertAlexWillis]

I can definately see the four clans leaving behind algai'd'siswai to guard their holds which explains the missing 45,000, but I am curious as to what basis you have for that statement. When is it said there were no more that one hundred thousand spears?

 

Its in the BWB.  The "author" says that Aiel who had been "interviewed" claimed that the four clans never had more than 100,000 spears across the Dragonwall at any time, and put the number at Tar Valon between 70,000 and 80,000.

 

(BWB page 123)

[Luckers]

Thanks mate, i havn't real read the modern era enteries in the BWB since i first got it... Maybe i should.

[Quixotic]

How were the Aiel Supplied during the Aiel War anyway ? How did they mantained stockpiles of arrows , spears and other weapons , as well as receive reinforcements ? There must have been additional  forces being sent over the Jangai pass during the war , considering that it lasted three years , and given that there should have been at least several thousand casualties from three years of fighting ?

 

What about food ? How did they live off the land ( if they did ) if some of the lands where the fighting took place were rather sparsely populated ? ( Southern river Erinin , Between Cairhien and Tar Valon , etc...)

[RobertAlexWillis]

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You want a course in military logistics?  I'm afraid there isn't space for that here ....

[Quixotic]

I was just wondering whether they dependend on supply lines or were self sufficient instead.

[Davian93]

How were the Aiel Supplied during the Aiel War anyway ? How did they mantained stockpiles of arrows , spears and other weapons , as well as receive reinforcements ? There must have been additional  forces being sent over the Jangai pass during the war , considering that it lasted three years , and given that there should have been at least several thousand casualties from three years of fighting ?

 

Aiel seem to be self sufficient which isn't realistic for a force that large but don't let that stop you.  Why not ask Where do the Aiel get all the wood for arrows and spear shafts considering they live in a land with few if any trees?  Is there some massive lumber trade going on that we are unaware of?  If there is we certainly would have heard something about it on this side of the Dragonwall.  Perhaps Shara is the Lebanon (historically known for its Cedar forests) of Randland, eh?  Or even better ask how the Aiel support approx. 10 times the amount of people that a desert environment the size of the Waste would actually be able to sustain.  These are things we don't dig too deeply into because in the end it is a book.

[Luckers]

I would suggest that that is precisely where the Aiel get their wood. We know that there is constant trading occuring along the Cliffs of Dawn--and RJ has shown himself aware that they ration the use of wood with the whole deal about Chiefs Chairs and all that, so i assume he would be aware of the situation.