Rand and the Third Man *****(KoD spoilers)*****

[Charlz Guybon]

Thanks guys, that helps a lot; and Luckers, your answer was cooler.  ;D

 

It strains credulity that two groups BA of Aes Sedai in different countries would independently uncover the Borderland expedition and attach themselves to it, reaching the magic number of 13 all at the same time. One of the Forsaken has to be behind it, any suspects?

[Luckers]

I concider it possible that these Aes Sedai were the Aes Sedai that freed Taim. We know it's likely that Aes Sedai were behind that--it states several times how wary Warders are about attempts to free captured Dragons, and thirteen Aes Sedai with warning would be able to hold off a conciderable force, and thats a confrontation that would have leaked out, instead we get nothing. Additionally it seems unlikely that a Forsaken would risk themself by trying to free a non-entity (at the time) like Taim.

 

Therefore, knowing that the person is a channeler means it is more than probably an Aes Sedai (though its not impossible that some men Taim had trained prior to the capture were behind it), and if it was Aes Sedai then that means it was either ones originally a part of the mission, or a group sent out from the Tower; to my mind the latter is the more likely situation given that someone would have had to have been sent anyway, and it seems wiser to me to send enough Blacks to overwhelm the lightfriend sisters.

 

In any case that leaves a bunch of black sisters openly in cahoots with each other in the Black Hills, at around the time that Suine was deposed. At that stage i dont doubt such a group would prefer to take a step back; and the logical place to step back to in that area is the borderlands. This would be when I suspect the group broke apart... twelve Aes Sedai together are too conspicuos. Seven join with Coladara in Arafel, and the rest into Shienar (which also makes sense with where the Aes Sedai were in the Black Hills). Of course from there, Black or not, these women are Aes Sedai. Of course they would join with a coalition of Borderlander rulers.

 

Of course this is all complete conjecture on my part, but i concider it the most likely explanation for how so many Blacks came together.

[RobertAlexWillis]

Its conjecture that I happen to agree with, and since Taim was freed during the time when there was no Ishamael around, I lay that plan at the feet of Demandred.

 

The entire scenario in the Borderlands stinks of Demandred, to me.  He is clearing his invasion path, by stripping the Borderlands of their rulers and the bulk of their armies.  Then, he sets up a situation in which Rand will meet them, and everything will go bad, quickly.  The scenario that has unfolded in the Borderlands began with the return of Hurin to Shienar (very late during the period covered by TDR) and the freeing of Taim (which in TSR).  Reports of fighting in Shienar and Arafel were given in TFoH.  The fighting dies down, and the rulers start getting together during LoC.

 

The period from TSR through the end of LoC is Demandred's time.  Its my guess that Demandred was behind freeing Taim and sending him to Rand, and behind the Borderlander's army coming south with 13 Black Ajah.  I feel pretty sure that this is at least part of the reason behind the famous laugh-fest at the end of LoC.  Rand's torture at the hands of Aes Sedai from Cairhien to Dumai's Wells just sets up an even bigger confrontation with the Black Sisters who are with the Borderlanders.

[Luckers]

I can buy that... indeed, if you think about it the methodology doesn't fit any of the other Forsaken around at the time except... maybe Graendal, but we know it wasn't her. Sammael prefers direct control and blunt tactics, Mesaana seems to destroy from within (the Tower and that whole governess, teaching thing she did in the War of Power). Asmodean, Moghedian and Lanfear are completely unlikely, Rhavin too. That leaves Demandred, who we know does his work through others... and he has means. Through his alliance with Mesaana he has a route through which to direct the Blacks in freeing Taim. Yes it all fits together fairly nicely.

 

I'll be interested to learn the actual path of events in the borderlands. What caused the fighting to so suddenly die down, or the move for unity between the various rulers? What part did Hurin play?

[RobertAlexWillis]

I'll be interested to learn the actual path of events in the borderlands. What caused the fighting to so suddenly die down, or the move for unity between the various rulers? What part did Hurin play?

 

Indeed, although I can see a carefully orchestrated campaign of misinformation causing everything we do know ...

 

The fighting in Shienar started (according the Balwer, who is really good) about the time of the fall of the Stone of Tear. (LoC ch 9)  That coincides very closely to the time that Hurin would have gotten home.

 

Now Demandred would be aware of events in Tear, including Ishamael's death, and saw his chance.  Hurin goes to Agelmar (who probably already has suspicions about Rand) and tells him about Falme.  Some sort of proclamation goes out, and is disputed by agents of Demandred.  News of the fall of the Stone wouldn't have reached the populace by that point, so it would be easy to convince many that Rand was simply another False Dragon.

 

Then Demandred has Taim freed.  Between Taim being freed, rumors of Falme moving east from Saldaea, and rumors from Hurin's report moving west from Shienar, its not hard to envision a hundred minor revolts, all completely disconnected.  The rulers clamp down fairly effectively, but they have to have something to tell their people about this Dragon or rebellions will keep popping up.  Relations between the Borderland rulers always seemed to be closer than those of the southern nations ... they all share the Blight.  So, they start consulting about what they should do about this Al'Thor ...

 

Then they get news of the capture of both Cairhien, and, in short order, Caemlyn.  Using, of all things, an army of Aiel!  The Aiel haven't exactly been on a friendly basis with the Borderlands, especially Shienar.  And, the last time everyone got together, it was to deal with the Aiel.  It probably wasn't difficult for Demandred to paint Rand and these Aiel as at least a potential threat ... especially once word of the amnesty and Taim got to them (although they were already starting to move by then).  With the Blight nicely quiet, the Borderlanders can afford to get together and deal with this once and for all.  It was something none of them could manage on their own, so they got together, as secretly as possible.

 

And, of course, once they do, it turns out that 13 Aes Sedai came along ...

 

And Demandred and the Great Lord have a nice chuckle.

 

Now, I'm not saying I have proof thats how things went.  Obviously I don't.  But it fits, and would lead to what we've been discussing.

[Luckers]

Myself, I feel that the events we've witnessed lead to a slightly different position on behalf of the borderlanders. Whilst they are wary of Rand's actions, they arn't moving against him, or to 'deal with things' as you suggest. My guess is that their main intention at this stage is to learn what type of man Rand is, and they don't intend to do such as supplicants.

 

From the beginning i suspect that the borderlanders had no confusion about the nature of Rand as the Dragon. They are educated, and aware of the need for the Dragon. Their movement of militiristic strength stems, i suspect, from their dislike of some of Rands actions. I suspect that they don't intend to oppose him so much as serve as a lesson to him, even if that lesson means their distruction.

 

To my mind that is the only goal that could stir the borderlanders to move as a whole against the Dragon.

[RobertAlexWillis]

Hmmm ... I guess I should have been clearer.  By "deal with this" I meant essentially what you just said.  They view him as a potential threat (after all, while the rulers probably understand the need for the Dragon, I'm sure they are also familiar with the fact that he doesn't present a "happy" cure) and wish to assess him and bargain from a position of strength, if necessary.  They don't want to pick an unnecessary fight.

 

But I think they are willing to fight if they feel they have to, which is what will come through to Rand.  Also, Tenobia is going to have it out with Bashere, and I doubt any of them like the Black Tower much.  The prophecies don't mention Asha'man at all, and there is bad blood with Taim, especially in Saldaea.

[Darkness Incarnated]

I understand that heroes are not superhumans, even the Dragon Reborn, but why would RJ give us a hero who needs to be bloody saved right left and center? It annoys me, especially when the hero in question is said to be very intelligent, and never repeats his mistakes.

Anyway, would the Borderlanders really attack Rand if it came to it? They are certainly aware that it would be suicide, right? Rand could gather an army superior to theirs in no time, but it's the Asha'man they should be worried about. Have they heard of Dumai's Well? Or the Seanchan defeat far to the south?

[Ealdur Tinuviel]

That is why I don't think it will go exactly as planned. Rand learned his lesson from Dumai's Wells, and I don't think he is going to repeat it. He won't go alone, most certainly. And that is why it will be bloody.

 

I can't really envision the scenario, per se, but I'm definitely wondering if Rand might take Cadsuane and a few others with him.

 

Also, as a side note, I had always found it curious that the Borderlands would be so irresponsible.

 

Ethenielle says that she "left enough forces behind to guard the Blight short of the Trolloc Wars coming again" and I'm reading this, thinking, that is exactly what will happen, except in larger numbers.

 

So it makes sense that it was a plot by the Forsaken. However, didn't Graendal once say something like "Demandred was working in the south?" I know it was vague, and perhaps she didn't really know where he was, but I'm not sure.

[Darkness Incarnated]

What I remember is Sammael saying that events to the south reeked of Demandred.

Rand by himself should be capable of handling four Aes Sedai (maybe more if he's already holding saidin), more or less the same for Logain. I can't see Cadsuane letting Rand wander away alone, so she should accompany him. With her [ter']angreals, she should be able to handle perhaps two, Nynaeve two or three (I don't know how strong their angreals are), Alivia two or three, then the various Aes Sedai and their Asha'man. That is, of course, if they all accompany him. Is he even aware of the Sisters with the Borderlanders?

 

[Charlz Guybon]

Myself, I feel that the events we've witnessed lead to a slightly different position on behalf of the borderlanders. Whilst they are wary of Rand's actions, they arn't moving against him, or to 'deal with things' as you suggest. My guess is that their main intention at this stage is to learn what type of man Rand is, and they don't intend to do such as supplicants.

 

That's the ruler's motivations, but it's not the Aes Sedai's and they're the one's who are going to cause all the drama.

[RobertAlexWillis]

There are differences between this situation and the kidnapping that led to Dumai's Wells.

 

1) Rand's personal effectiveness is way down.  With the loss of his hand, and the damage to his eyes, he is much, much less able to protect himself.  For all his strength in the Power, its all but impossible to channel where you can't see ...

 

2) The objective of the Aes Sedai is likely very different.  In LoC, they took him on a long trip back to Tar Valon, which gave everyone time to gather forces and catch up.  I doubt the Black sisters here plan on taking him anywhere near Tar Valon.

 

3) Taim isn't going to help rescue him this time.  Yes, Logain might, but Logain can't call on almost the entire Black Tower like Taim could at the Wells.

 

4) Things will be complicated by the presence of 200,000 troops who are not necessarily in on the plan.

 

5) Rand is expecting a generally friendly welcome.  I'm not saying he's going to just step in with both feet, but then, he might, especially if he goes to meet them fresh from successful negotiations with Tuon.  After all, he has Bashere, a high ranking and highly respected Borderland lord to help, and he has some reason to expect the Shienarans to be friendly.

 

On the plus side:

 

1) Perrin is in a position to move much more quickly on a rescue.  He already has troops who trust his command assembled, and has Asha'man who are loyal to him and to Rand, and who can Travel.  And he probably won't have to sit around for a couple of days wondering if Rand is really gone.

 

2) I doubt the Black Aes Sedai are expecting anyone who can take command of the Saldaeans (assuming both Tenobia and Bashere die as part of their plan) to show up.

 

3) There aren't a whole bunch of Shaido to turn this into a bloody free-for-all.  Once Perrin calms things down at the camp, its likely to much more of a simple search and rescue than a massive battle like at the Wells.

 

The Wild Card:

 

1) The sisters Rand has with him.  Most especially Nynaeve, Cadsuane, and Alivia.  Those three can be very effective protection ... its diffcult to foresee a situation in which Rand wouldn't bring them along, and they make the success (even temporary) of the Black Sisters much less likely.

 

On the other hand, maybe this is where Cadsuane bites it.  If the Sisters really are Black, and acting under Demandred's orders, he might have given them some kind of ace-in-the-hole, so to speak ...

[Ealdur Tinuviel]

Funny that you say that, because I was thinking Cadsuane might die too. I don't know if two of Rand's mentors (Cadsuane and Moiraine) can coexist peacefully. With Moiraine's reintroduction, Cadsuane is no longer needed.

 

What is to say that Moiraine doesn't get rescued before this or something? I could see Cadsuane giving the quest of teaching Rand "tears and laughter" to Moiraine.

 

"Remember, child....tears, and laughter. Teach him that."

 

I don't know, I'm starting to ramble.

 

But I do know is that too many people have been captured, held, and freed in the books. Faile, Egwene, Rand (previously) have all been captured at some point. And there are others as well.

 

I don't think Rand has much time to be captured though (in order to fight the LB. I think these Aes Sedai will as quickly kill him as not, now that Moridin has okayed Rand being killed.

 

Oh yeah, I forgot something. If the 13 are linked, they should be quite difficult to overcome, even with a few channelers on Rand's side, shouldn't they.

 

Why hasn't Rand thought of how dangerous it is to leave the blight ungarded? Shouldn't he realize this is likely the work of the chosen, since half the might of the borderlands, or at least a sizeable chunk, is neglecting the blight?

 

Shouldn't he perhaps be more expecting of a plot this time?

[Luckers]

Actually Cadsuane and Moiraine never overlapped in purpose. Moiraine served more as a tutor, a protector and a guide. Cadsuane is an advisor. There is a subtle yet distinct difference there, and that is the reason why she will remain the strongest figure near Rand even when Moiraine returns--Rand no longer has need of Moiraine as she was, and indeed i doubt she will even bother with trying to reassume her old position; she's much too wily not to be able to read the change in circumstance.

 

Why hasn't Rand thought of how dangerous it is to leave the blight ungarded? Shouldn't he realize this is likely the work of the chosen, since half the might of the borderlands, or at least a sizeable chunk, is neglecting the blight?

 

Lan asked that exact question in KoD.

 

The sisters Rand has with him.  Most especially Nynaeve, Cadsuane, and Alivia.  Those three can be very effective protection ... its diffcult to foresee a situation in which Rand wouldn't bring them along, and they make the success (even temporary) of the Black Sisters much less likely.

 

It's possible that Cadsuane will remain behind to question Semirhage, and Alivia may not be present if he comes directly from Tuon, which may also remove Alivia, who is guarding him. Beyond that recall that Elza is a darkfriend, however twisted in her own mind it may be. It's possible that she'll percieve that the best way of keeping Rand alive to die at the Dark One's hand is to assist and capture, and then hold him safe until the Day of Return.

 

What I remember is Sammael saying that events to the south reeked of Demandred.

Rand by himself should be capable of handling four Aes Sedai (maybe more if he's already holding saidin), more or less the same for Logain. I can't see Cadsuane letting Rand wander away alone, so she should accompany him. With her [ter']angreals, she should be able to handle perhaps two, Nynaeve two or three (I don't know how strong their angreals are), Alivia two or three, then the various Aes Sedai and their Asha'man. That is, of course, if they all accompany him. Is he even aware of the Sisters with the Borderlanders?

 

Linked, a circle becomes one singular channeler. At that stage its not so much an issue of carving out the blacks for each of the lightfriends. Also, remember that loss can come as much from failures on the lights side as success on the shadows. Concider; Logain and the others may not be present, they may instead be off elsewhere attending to missions. Cadsuane may be with Semirhage, Alivia left behind for Tuon, Nynaeve to watch Alivia. It's possible that Rand will rock up with Elza and maybe a couple of Asha'men and maidens.

 

Also, recall that when Sammael said that about events in the south, he was in Arad Domon. Additionally, Demandred was likely involved in several plans, including the one in the south.

 

 

[Charlz Guybon]

 

1) The sisters Rand has with him.  Most especially Nynaeve, Cadsuane, and Alivia.  Those three can be very effective protection ... its diffcult to foresee a situation in which Rand wouldn't bring them along, and they make the success (even temporary) of the Black Sisters much less likely.

 

On the other hand, maybe this is where Cadsuane bites it.  If the Sisters really are Black, and acting under Demandred's orders, he might have given them some kind of ace-in-the-hole, so to speak ...

 

How about Rand brings Semirhage along with him intending to put her on trail before the Borderland rulers; in order to give them a good impression of him, and the black sisters manage to set her free.

[Ealdur Tinuviel]

I don't know. There's the story of how she was held in the War of Power, and how she was so cruel and sadistic she managed to get her own captors to free her. Surely Rand has heard this story, and would make sure she is under tight confinement and not do something like that.

 

But also, she has never had to deal with someone like Cadsuane before...

[Charlz Guybon]

I don't know. There's the story of how she was held in the War of Power, and how she was so cruel and sadistic she managed to get her own captors to free her. Surely Rand has heard this story, and would make sure she is under tight confinement and not do something like that.

 

But also, she has never had to deal with someone like Cadsuane before...

 

He probably won't want her out of his sight, so he'll bring her with him wherever he goes until she's executed (if he ever has the guts to do so).

[Ealdur Tinuviel]

I wouldn't think he would put her in the position to make him look bad though.

 

For instance, in EotW, when Ba'alzamon used Kari Al'thor, and she said things that didn't exactly make his cause sound good.

[Charlz Guybon]

I wouldn't think he would put her in the position to make him look bad though.

 

For instance, in EotW, when Ba'alzamon used Kari Al'thor, and she said things that didn't exactly make his cause sound good.

 

Showing up and say "Look, I captured Semirhage" would make him look pretty good if he had Cadsuane with him to confirm it. He can keep Semirhage gagged.

[Ealdur Tinuviel]

They wouldn't recognize her as Forsaken though, they would have to take Rand's word on that.

 

Or Semi's word, if Rand could trust her to open her mouth without making him look bad.

[Charlz Guybon]

They wouldn't recognize her as Forsaken though, they would have to take Rand's word on that.

 

Or Semi's word, if Rand could trust her to open her mouth without making him look bad.

I think you missed something.

Showing up and say "Look, I captured Semirhage" would make him look pretty good if he had Cadsuane with him to confirm it.

[Luckers]

I rather doubt he'll be showing Semirhage off. He has no desire to 'look good' in front of anyones eyes, and he's aware of just how dangerous Semirhage can be if she has access to people that she can intimidate. My guess is he'll lock her away, allowing only himself, Cadsuane and maybe Nynaeve access.

[RobertAlexWillis]

I agree.  Not only is it probably not a good idea to show Semirhage off, but it could bring up uncomfortable questions about how he knew it was her, etc.  We saw where that question led once already.

 

And since I doubt he'll bring her along, I could definitely see Cadsuane not being present (because she's left in charge of Semi).  Alivia being left with the Seanchan I'm not quite sure of ... I'm not sure she's stable enough to be left basically on her own yet, and she takes guarding Rand pretty seriously.

 

The thing is, there are a thousand different ways the details could go (which is why the story is still interesting, even when I run across things that, in a general way, I knew were coming).  About all I can say I feel fairly sure about is; when Rand meets the Borderlanders, something big and bad will happen.

[Luckers]

And since I doubt he'll bring her along, I could definitely see Cadsuane not being present (because she's left in charge of Semi).  Alivia being left with the Seanchan I'm not quite sure of ... I'm not sure she's stable enough to be left basically on her own yet, and she takes guarding Rand pretty seriously.

 

Sorry, I probably wasn't clear, i meant that Alivia would not have been taken with Rand to meet Tuon. Her reaction to the Seanchan man in Tear proved that to Rand, it's why she wasn't with him when he went to meet Semirhage. And if Rand, thrilled with success with Tuon, decides to immediately deal with the other random group, the Borderlanders, he'll probably do it straight away... thats kind of his MO. In which case Alivia will not be with him.

 

Moreover you hit a note about Alivia not being left alone, which is what i meant when i said that Nynaeve may remain behind to watch her... though to be honest i concider it unlikely. I don't see Rand approaching the Seanchan without one of the three, and to my mind that will most probably be Nynaeve.

 

 

[RobertAlexWillis]

Ah, I see.  OK.