Thread rehash- Military forces

[balefired-ed2]

A good while back, there was a discussion on the forces of the light and the shadow matched up and, in one of the best posts I've ever seen, Luckers summed up both sides. I thought it might be worth another look for everyone here.

 

 

It's looking like the major generals in play will be Mat, Inturalde, Bryne, Galgan and probably some of the Aiel Clan Chiefs.

 

I exclude Bashere because increasingly its looking like he is going to die. Perhaps Algemar will play a key part too.

 

ARMED FORCES

 

Borderlanders - Including forces left in the Borderlands i'd guess 250,000. Merillile estimated the army in Andor to have 200,000 and we know they left a significant force behind.

 

Rand's Forces - around 400,000 Aiel split between Tear and Arad Domon. Cairhein and Tear, i'm guessing, could marshal somewhere around 150,000 each when all is said and done, though this is never pinned down. My guess comes based of Andoran numbers, and Andor is the strongest nation in the world. Illian is likely stronger, given Sammael's avid recruitment program... so maybe 200,000. Altogether thats 900,000 that he can marshal.

 

Andor - Elayne said that if they gathered all their warriors they could barely match the borderlanders--so 200,000.

 

Inturalde - Has marshalled two armies altogether 300,000. Wether he will be able to retain the Taraboners following the battle with the Seanchan is unknown. Additionally many will be lost in the battle with the Seanchan, unless Rhuarc, Rand or Tuon intervene following the treaty. I expect his forces will be down to around 200,000 by the time the Last battle begins.

 

The Aes Sedai - Gawyn estimates that the Rebels have 50,000 spread in two camps, and Elaida ordered the guard raised to 50,000 long ago. So following reunification 100,000. I suspect maybe 10,000 will die in the seanchan attack. 90,000.

 

The White Cloaks - 7,000.

 

The Legion of the Dragon - it was 15,000 in aCoS but given Taims... verocious recruiting campeign i wouldn't be surprised if this hadn't tripelled. Nevertheless ill place this at 30,000... and if they get their hands on Mat's crossbow bolts...

 

The Band of the Red Hand - I think 16,000 if i understand that talk of banners. Egwene places them at 10,000 in PoD so it seems a likely number. He has six thousand horse, five thousand foot, four thousand crossbowman and a thousand masons.

 

Dragonsworn - Less of an issue now. Those with Masema were mostly slaughtered in the battle with the Shaido, and those that arn't seem to have been gathered up by Inturalde or Taim.

 

The Seanchan - dificult to calculate. I believe a force of around 8,000 will be attacking Tar Valon. And army of maybe 100,000 has followed a man named Turan after Inturalde, where i suspect it will be decimated. Based on Suroth's comments i suspect that was about half the armed forces the Seanchan had in Tarabon, so another 100,000. Tylee has 15,000 under her. With another large army of around 30,000 wandering about in Altara. Given the frequency of the mention of the Seanchan forces, and how spread out they are, with Altaran, Taraboner and Amadacian conscripts present... i'd place their numbers at around 800,000. But that is a very loose guess. Remember too they have the only air force in the world, and the only force literally capable of going toe to toe with a Trolloc, and coming out on top... cept for maybe the Ogier.

 

Murandy - I think Murandy is underestimated. Due to contentions they have a standing army that is quite large due to the fact that each Lord and Lady has their own force... now all of which is united behind Roedan. I reckon they might even have 100,000 or more. However, i also suspect that Roedan is either Demandred, or under his control... so...

 

Ogier - Who knows... i doubt they'd be able to muster a large force... but they could be effective. Lets say maybe 10,000

 

CHANNELERS

 

Black Tower - Around 1000 now, though that may have climbed. 100 Darkfriends and 900 Light.

 

White Tower - 2200. Including all Aes Sedai, and novices. I'd place around 300 Black Ajah... to be kind. The disposition of the novices is unimportant, since they will be used like batteries in circels. 1900.

 

Wise Ones - Based on the Shaido, 5500. Lets be extremely kind and give a third to the Shadow. 1875 Dark and 3625 light

 

Seanchan - Hard to say. They get every sparker, and the Seanchan have a much much larger population by all accounts. Plus they've taken loads of new damane since ariving (randoms, the shaido, the windfinders, the kin... loads). I'll give them 6,000 and think thats conservative. It might only be 4,000, or may be as high as 8,000. Not many darkfriends amongst the sul'dam, so i wont give any to the Shadow.

 

The Kin - Given likely losses to the Seanchan i'll put them at 1,300. No darkfriends.

 

The Windfinders - Given ship distribution, presense of apprentices and so forth, i'd guess around 3,000. Being kind ill give a third to the shadow. 1,000 dark and 2,000 light.

 

CONCLUSION

 

Armed Forces of the Light - 2, 253, 000. That isn't including Murandy, who may be Shadow.

 

Channeling Forces of the Light - 15,725

 

Channeling Forces of the Dark - 3,275

 

OTHER CONSIDERATIONS

 

Given the disparate amount of Dark Channelers, and RJ's insistance that the Light is in a bad way, there are some other possible considerations.

 

1. Aiel Male Channelers. Have been going north for a very long time. Possibly been turned to the Shadow. I'd suggest around 1000... remember, 1/4 would have died.

 

2. Taim. I believe that Taim was trained a while back by Ishamael (when Ishy first suspect Rand's birth), and sent out to start training men who can channel for the Shadow. Since this must have been done by Ishy for the Trolloc Wars (since we know men fought in those wars, and someone must have gathered and trained them) i think this is very likely. Moreover, i suspect there might be women out there doing the same thing. The Aes Sedai ignored wilders and those channelers that never bothered to come to the Tower, and the Kin never recruited... they only accepted Tower dropouts which leaves a fairly massive (even with recent recruitments) untapped force. This scenario matches Taims comments of his past--he admits to trying to train people, but claims they went insane... if Taim is a darkfriend, as seems likely, then those men would have had the option of joining the dark.

 

Still, a furtive operation at best... even with a whole bunch of people doing it... My guess would put it at around 2,000... but ill be kind and say 4,000, just because.

 

3. The Sharans. They are a massive untapped force... but there are some problems. They are ruled by the channelers from the background, which means a monolithic organisation with diffused circles of power. They use compulsion all the time in their ruling, which would make it hard to control them in this manner. Additionally from purely plot perspective it would be hard to swallow... the Aiel Instant Army was hard to swallow, and he spent the better part of two books doing that.

 

4. The Land of the Madmen... i believe this is where the shadow has been gathering channelers... the stories about the place strike me as a massive smokescreen... but meh. Alternatively it might be a ripe recruitment area for the Shadow. ill given them 4,000 channelers too... male and female.

 

If these are true, it boosts the number of Dark Channelers to 12,275. A much more even number.

 

*sigh*. Thats, near as i can tell, the current distribution of forces. I havn't speculated on the number of shadowspawn... but it will more them probably be greater then the forces of the Light... maybe 3 million or more. Likely more.

 

[Child of Lir]

Thanks for re-posting that. It's good to have a refresher. I would be very interested to see some movement from Shara; I can't believe that the DO has left this area untapped.

[Lord Beric]

While I don't agree with every number given, this does seem to be a reasonably accurate estimate of the forces arrayed.  A couple of quick notes.

 

1. There's been some speculation regarding the freed gai'shain around Malden, and their proximity to Masema.  Worst case scenario, this provides him with between 50 and 100 thousand able bodied fanatics.  Not a definite, but something that should be taken into account.  Likely to be a force for the Dark (somehow), if indeed this comes to pass.

 

2. The non-Borderland armies from the Westlands are a bit misleading.  There's a big difference between trained soldiers or men-at-arms, and the peasants barely able to tell one end of a pike from another that Elayne's been putting together.  I'd say that, to be generous, perhaps two-thirds of what would come out of Andor, Cairhien, and Tear would be anything more than raw levies/recruits.  The state of affairs in Illian is probably somewhat better, though I would doubt by much.  So, while the raw numbers are there, the effectiveness of these armies is likely to be significantly less.

[Luckers]

In the interest of discusion i have changed a few points.

 

1. The Legion of the Dragon. 15,000 was half their number in aCoS, not their full number. Therefore given Taim's recruitment there may be as many as 60,000 now.

 

2. Lan is gathering a force in the borderlands, and given the power of the symbol of the golden crane, i suspect he will have at least 50,000.

 

3. As Beric suggested the 100,000+ freed gai'shain are an issue. Whether they support Faile, or fall to the lure of Masema (and indeed, rabid fanaticism has always been apealing to the disenfranchised) the will represent a force.

 

 

 

[Child of Lir]

I've not been counting numbers, but it all sounds plausible. The only thing I would query is the number of followers that Lan will gather. Obviously, there's all the surviving Malkieri and their offspring, but wouldn't any Malkieri soldiers have joined the armies of the lands in which they now live, and so would be excluded from joining Lan? It looks like he'll collect retired soldiers, merchants, farmers etc. (all of course skilled fighters though as they're Borderlanders), but I'm not sure how many soldiers.

 

This is just a question I'm throwing in - a query. Of course, I don't know how many Malkieri do survive so it's a bit of a moot point. Any ideas?

[Luckers]

The issue is not so much how many Malkieri still survive, as to the power of the symbol of the Golden Crane in the Borderlands. Through New Spring we see that should the Uncrowned King of Malkier call the Borderlands would indeed react, whether they be Malkieri or not. This is further emphasized by the fact that in KoD we see a Gemmeler join Lan through no more than the half-remembered and mostly dersied connection to the Seven Towers.

 

No, i see no issue in Lan gathering a formidable force.

[malin07]

There are to many numbers to keep track of. Actually i would agree with most of your calculations. The Black tower is something that is hard to calculate since it isnt very clear, least no to me, how many of them still follow Rand. I would say that there are more than 100 that follow taim.

[Charlz Guybon]

 

The Band of the Red Hand - I think 16,000 if i understand that talk of banners. Egwene places them at 10,000 in PoD so it seems a likely number. He has six thousand horse, five thousand foot, four thousand crossbowman and a thousand masons.

 

 

This is a good rundown on the current military situation, although I do believe they underestimate Andor, whose forces should match the 200,000 swords you suggest. http://wotmania.com/faqtopic.asp?ID=107

 

You forget that the Band of the Red Hand was split into two groups. The group with Mat had 3 banner of horse (4500men), and 4000 mounted crossbowmen. They lost four hundred crossbowmen, and five hundred cavalry in that campaign. The other section had 3 banners of horse (4500men), five banners of foot (15,000men), and a Mason's banner (1500men). That's 28,600

[ryharr5]

Just because a man is in an army that supports the light doesn't mean he does.  What I mean to say is, some men in the armies of Andor, Illian, etc might support the Shadow during the Last Battle.

[Siemba]

Isnt there a considerable chance that the light armies (eg Tower rebels) are going to be cut down just by fighting amongst themselves?

Borderlanders - live on Blight, might die horribly before the LB

Rand's Forces - ok, I'll admit these ones are likely not to loose loads of numbers but thats not saying they wont. They annoy everyone by existing; rulers might just have a go if they try crossing their land.

Andor - Elayne might die/muck up, leading to civil war. Or they might fight with the borderlands.

The Aes Sedai - Are not united. They may continue to bicker amongst themselves.

The White Cloaks - Nobody likes whitecloaks. People might kill them. Hell, wolves might kill them if Perrin suggests it nicely enough.

The Band of the Red Hand - I cant honestly see these getting into a fight except for with the DO

The Seanchan - Might not want to join in. There is a load of them but their weird customs might hamper them and we already know that they are going to loose numbers attacking the WT

 

Of course, Im just suggesting this because waffling about military junk amuses. Actually, I think the original numbers are quite close to what it would be, or at least how numbers stand at the end of KoD. :)

 

[Luckers]

Isnt there a considerable chance that the light armies (eg Tower rebels) are going to be cut down just by fighting amongst themselves?

 

Not really. As things stand there are five distinct groups within the forces of the Light that could potentially create tension. They are...

 

1. Rand's group

2. The Rebel Aes Sedai

3. The Tower Aes Sedai

4. The Seanchan

5. The Borderlanders

 

Now, Rand has already approached the Seanchan in reguards to a truce, and given that tuon is now in charge, and that we know that Tuon has stated her direct appreciation of the need to be ready to face Tarmon Gai'don that that truce will work out (yes, obviously the false prophecy about Rand kneeling will be an issue of drama, but given we have actual prophecy that states that Rand will indeed bind the the seanchan to serve him, added to Tuon's afformentioned position, it seems clear that that issue will be resolve in good favour without any more large decimating battles).

 

From there we step to the fact that Rand would obviously require the ceasation of hostilities as a part of that truce, including the leashing of female channelers--and if you think that either he might accept the ongoing leashing of female channelers in any way, or that Tuon would not be able to set it aside, then simply look at Rand's reaction to Logain bonding Aes Sedai and Tuon's statement that bonding marath'damane could wait for a more opportune moment.

 

Furthermore given the impending Seanchan assault on the Tower, and the extreme likelyhood that through opposing it Egwene will end in final control of both groups of Aes Sedai, than through the line of progression we have the Tower united, and Rand and the Seanchan united, and through that and the ceasation of hostilities, the Seanchan and the Aes Sedai allied. This seems very likely, especially given Egwene's dream reguarding the Seanchan woman whose face shifts but sword remains the same, and indeed is according to Egwene the most important part of the image ( and is most probably a symbol of the Seanchan army as led by Tuon).

 

So from there we have unity between four of the five. As to the Borderlanders, there will definately be drama there--most specifically i suspect that the thirteen Aes Sedai with them are Black Ajah...

 

Borderlanders - live on Blight, might die horribly before the LB

 

The majority of the Borderlanders force is in the south, and the rest is being gathered by Lan, so the issue of facing the initial invasion and therefore being decimated is limited.

 

Rand's Forces - ok, I'll admit these ones are likely not to loose loads of numbers but thats not saying they wont. They annoy everyone by existing; rulers might just have a go if they try crossing their land.

 

That is simply not going to happen; A) Rand's forces move via gateway, B) no nation in the world has the strength to be petulant... or the cohesion. Except of course the Seanchan, and Rand's forces won't be moving through their lands unless they intend to be annoying in any case.

 

Andor - Elayne might die/muck up, leading to civil war. Or they might fight with the borderlands.

 

Again, not going to happen. We have a viewing showing Elayne isn't going to die any time soon, and both the borderlanders and Elaybne are walking warily, and even if the thirteen Aes Sedai are black they won't be able to convince the Borderlander rulers to go to war with Andor.

 

The Aes Sedai - Are not united. They may continue to bicker amongst themselves.

 

Again, the end is clearly in sight with that issue. The confrontation with the Seanchan will cause for Aes Sedai to be captured certainly, but even if they are not freed that still means they will lend their strength to Tarmon Gai'don, and it results with Egwene in complete charge.

 

The White Cloaks - Nobody likes whitecloaks. People might kill them. Hell, wolves might kill them if Perrin suggests it nicely enough.

 

Under Galad that seems unlikely, but even so... 7,000... a drop in the ocean.

 

The Seanchan - Might not want to join in. There is a load of them but their weird customs might hamper them and we already know that they are going to loose numbers attacking the WT

''

 

The force involved in the assault on the White Tower will be very small in number, and therefore losses will be equally limited. And Tuon will have their control, and they will join... we have this in prophecy.

[DragonSpawn]

There are to many numbers to keep track of. Actually i would agree with most of your calculations. The Black tower is something that is hard to calculate since it isnt very clear, least no to me, how many of them still follow Rand. I would say that there are more than 100 that follow taim.

 

      Actually literally all members of the Black Tower follow the Dragon. The only thing they don´t do is all follow Logain. Since for most they see Taim as the appointed leader of the Tower in the Dragon´s name. Whereas Logain is just a treasonous upstart in their eyes. Meaning most probably unless Rand himself appears and vouches for Logain most will fight for Taim, believing him to be representing the Dragon. After all who did the first Ashamen see Rand giving the sceptre of leadership to? They saw Rand giving Taim the full command of the Farm and the training of men. Likewise they have no reason to believe that Taim is no longer behind the Dragon, whereas they have all reason to be suspicious of Logain. Who through his long stay with the Aes Sedai, could be mused to be in league with the "Dragon´s enemies," for anyone wishing to find excuses.

        I also don´t blame them. Taim is much more intimidating and arguably a greater man than Logain in the eyes of the common men. Whereas Logain got gentled and humiliated, Taim managed to kill more than his share of Aes Sedai, cause more destruction than Logain and is more powerful and skilled in the power from what we know. Of course now that Logain has been around Rand a lot, perhaps Logain´s learning of new weaves might equal them a bit.