Why I think that Alviarin eats pigeon for dinner

[cloglord]

It has been brought up in the TSR thread in the structured forum that I feel that there was some dastardly deed that prevented Siuan from being warned by Moraine about the attempt to free Taim. My reasons for this belief is well reasoned and firmly grounded in the books, yet it has been dismissed as coincidence. Here I will try to reiterate my argument, and throw in some additional substantiation from later books, that I could not adequately cite due to the strictures of the structured forum.

 

TSR Prolouge: Min arrives at the Tower. Siuan tells her that she has not recieved word of "Rand al Thor" since the incidents at Falme. Min tells Siuan that Rand has run away, obstensibly for Tear. Siuan specifically tells Min that she is to remain, and remain hidden, to help her catch the BA.

 

TSR Chapter 6: Moraine tells the wondergirls that she has sent 3 pigeons to Tar Valon to warn Siuan about the possibility of an attempt to free Taim. She specifically says that she sent "3 messages, to be sure that one arrives,"

 

TSR Chapter 17: Min runs to Siuan to tell her that she's had a viewing about Logain. While Min is there a novice brings two messages from the pigeon cotes, one tell of the escape of Taim, the other is from Moraine saying, "The sling has been used, the shepherd holds the sword." This prompt her to convene the hall. Min mentions that rumor of this had reached tar Valon 2 days prior, and that a man on a horse could have carried word by the time that this message had arrived. Min asks Siuan why she can act now that a message has arrived, when she couldn't before. Siuan replies, that she can involve herself openly with Rand now because she has word from an aes sedai that callanor has been drawn by a man in fulfillment of prophecy.

 

TSR Chapter 37: Siuan is mulling over her confidential papers, and thinking to herself how impatient the hall is becoming with the fact that there has been no news about Rand. She thinks that she has not recieved any further correspondence from Moraine since the one message she recieved about Rand taking Callanor.

 

 

Analysis: Siuan has only recieved 1 message from Moraine since Falme. Moraine sent at least 3 other messages to Siuan that did not arrive. By the 3 oaths we know that Moraine felt "sure" that one of these 3 would arrive. The one message that was sent by Moraine and recieved by Siuan, arrived weeks after the event that it described, only after rumor had outpaced it. Siuan had no foreknowledge of the attempt to free Taim, and therefore was unable to prevent the attempt. Since Siuan had made no attempt to prevent Taim's escape, it was more probable for Elaida, (and Alviarin,) to claim that Siuan had had a hand in his escape. Because of Moraine's message, Siuan arranged to have the hall of the tower acknowledge Rand as the Dragon on the basis of firsthand, Aes Sedai, knowledge. The fact that no further information about the Rand arrived in the intervening weeks, made the sitters impatient and agitated with Siuan. The fact that the sitters were impatient and agitated with Siuan certainly did not help her when false charges were laid against her.

 

I take Luckers at his word, when he says that he believes that only 1 trained pigeon in 5 would arrive at its destination, so it lies to me to cast doubt on the assertion that it could be coincidence that all but one pigeon that Moraine sent to Siuan went astray.

 

First lets look at the time frame. We know that at the beggining of TSR, Siuan had not recieved word of Rand al Thor since Falme, and had only recieved the one message by the time she was deposed. According to Steven Coopers WOT Time line that means that 215 days had passed since Moraine had last sent word to Siuan, over 7 months. We know that during the time that Moraine was in the mountains of mist she met with a number of her contacts, any of which (except the tinker lady who got spitted by a trolloc) could have passed on a message to Siuan. Further, we know that Moraine stopped in Illian at the inn owned by one of her contacts, again, she was presented an oppurtunity to have sent a message. Lastly, we know that Moraine spent 21 days in Tear before she went to Rhuidean, more than sufficient time to have pigeons brought from Tar Valon for the sole purpose of sending them back should she so desire.

 

So we know that Moraine had the means to send a message to Siuan, but did she have the motive? In short, yes. She was tracking the progress of the Dragon Reborn. The same person whom both she and Siuan had devoted their entire adult lives to finding and directing. The coded message that Siuan successfully recieved, is proof enough, that Moraine could have worded any message circumspectly enough to avoid unwanted attention. Further, Moraine demonstrated her willingness to send messages, when she said claimed to have sent the 3 pigeons to Siuan about Taim's escape attempt. Moraine was deomstrably willing to send Siuan messages should the need arrise, we know of at least 4 that she sent.

 

So she's got means and motive, how about the method? Luckers contends that historically 4 out of every 5 pigeons sent went astray. If Moraine only sent the 4 messages that we are aware of, then the fact that one of them arrived would seem above average. Yet I decided in true argumentative fashion to do some cursory research. According to my (amittedly cursory internet,) research, Carrier pigeons are not nearly so unreliable. One source from 1892 recounts the prussian siege of Paris, saying that 302 poorly trained pigeons were released in a harsh winter, and that accounting for enemy fire 98 of them returnd home. Or a success rate of 32.4%. It further gives us citations for cities of various sizes and the number of trained pigeons that could be found said cities. It estimated the number of trained pigeons in Paris and its suburbs to be 8,000. or 44.4% of all its pidgeon population. If this percentage of trained to untrained birds hold strue, then an average French town population 100,000,circa 1892 would hold 6666.6% trained carrier pigeons, and a similar town population 10,000 would have 1332 trained birds.

 

http://www.gutenberg.org/files/14990/14990-h/14990-h.htm#art10

 

Wikipedia tells the story of an American carrier pigeon in 1918 that was awarded a medal for delivering a message after having been shot through the wing.

 

In March of 2002 India's Police pigeon service was discontinued because of the expansion of the internet.

 

A quick call to the American pigeon racing union told me that anecdotally over 90% of all racing pigeon released make it home to their cotes today, and that the main problem that prevents their return is not por training, but rather natural predators. In the US mainly hawks, which are the protected animals list.

 

In short, Those pigeons should have made it, why didn't they? Why did the pigeon that did make it to Siuan arrive weeks after it's release? And probably most importantly, where are you getting your facts Luckers?

[Beckon]

Without having read your entire post...nobody dismissed the idea that Moiraine's messages were intercepted.

 

For me I think it's a) not the only possibility and b) if there was a bird-napping it's not the Holy Grail.

 

What does it prove? That there's Black Ajah in the tower? That someone knew Suian and Moiraine were up to something? Neither of these realizations would be particularly revelatory.

 

It's your absurd insistence that a nefarious pigeon-napping is the only reasonable explanation that I disagree with.

[cloglord]

wow, I didn't realize that I was absurd, thanks.

 

The point, since you require me to draw you a picture, is that I believe that the BA has been controlling the eyes and ears of the ajahs since the series began. They are the only ones who have gotten the entire picture and they have been able to control who finds out what and when.

 

Hmm, I wonder how absurd it would be, if the BA orchestrated a simultaneous attack on everysince ajah agent in randland? I wonder what effect that would have on the morale of the aes sedai, what influence it would have on events? Really, what a stupid, and inconsequential thing to discuss, not at all as pressing and important as the raging debate about whether Lan or Rand would win a pre-amputation sword fight......

[Beckon]

It's absurd because pigeons are pretty fragile and not terribly bright critters. It doesn't require postulating a Black Ajah plot to explain why three of them might not survive a trip of hundreds of miles during a nasty draught. The birds could very well have been intercepted but no matter how much you insist that is not the only possibility.

 

If they're so solidly in control why are they not taking advantage of it? They're being captured left and right, and they've demonstrated on numerous occassions that they have incorrect information. Apart from that we know there are BA all over the place. One message failing to get through (even if you can prove it failed because someone bird-napped it) is hardly proof that the BA controls EVERY ajah's network of eyes and ears. Additionally, individual Aes Sedai have their own networks, so even if you could prove the BA interfering on such a grand scale, there would still be plenty of other information they weren't catching.

 

Secondly, if you're going to go about calling other people down for their arrogance, maybe you want to refrain from implying that anyone who doesn't share your opinion is stupid.

[Iceman]

Interesting idea.

 

I doubt the BA would kill all the agents though. The BA needs information passed to them as much as any other Aes Sedai. I can see them filtering out information that they see as hurtful to the DO's cause. But then, Every Aes Sedai passes on only the information they want to... which is usually not much.

 

However, this isn't simply a matter of sending messages that could get intercepted. Each Aes Sedai has her own personal agents... as well as the Ajahs and the Amrylin. In addition, I'd wager Moraine would put wards on any message she sent to the tower so that only Suiane could open it and read it (or at the VERY least written it in a code that only Suiane would understand.)

 

I don't see the BA killing Every pigeon that came to the tower in hopes of keeping a message from Moraine from reaching Suiane. Or being able to stop Every message that might come through all of those individual contacts (let's not forget Leane's contacts within Tar Valan).

 

The BA is powerful, but their Biggest concern is anonymity. A disruption of information on that grand a scale would easily draw attention from all sisters and raise many questions. The BA is too afraid of risking exposure to do that.

 

Alviarin may like game hens, but her appetite isn't THAT big.

[Cybertrolloc]

Awww, I was hoping for some kind of ASoIaF reference :(

 

Don't forget that we're dealing with WoT pigeons, not RL ones. For it to be noteworthy that none of Moiraine's pigeons get through, we need an example of other messages sent by bird not arriving, etc... Are there any other such cases? Are there any cases where someone sending a message by bird takes precautions such as Moiraine does (sending in triplicate)? I don't think there are.

[cloglord]

Beckon, I was not implying that anyone who doesn't share my opinion is stupid, I was implying that you were. Not because you didn't share my opinion, but because you felt the need to call my theory, which is in my opinion reasonably well reasoned and articulated, absurd. Just because you couldn't see the possible implications doesn't make me absurd, anymore than me taking offense really makes you stupid. If you don't think I'm absurd, I won't think you're stupid, fair enough?

 

As for your points, I think that if you were to re-read my original post, you would see that my preliminary reasearch into the nature of carrier pigeons suggests that they are far from fragile or less than capable of doing the one thing that they do very well, which is go home. One reiteration of the above examples should probably prove sufficient here.

 

Cher Ami was a carrier pigeon used by American forces in WWI. THere was a group of about 200 men, pinned down by german forces. American forces, began an artillery barage to help get the men out, but were actually hitting the men that they were trying to help. Cher Ami was releasd into this barrage, and immeadiately subjected to enemy fire. Cher Ami flew 25 miles in 25 minutes, and when found was blinded in one eye, shot in the breast, and his leg, the one with the message was dangling by a tendon. His message delivered, the barrage stopped, AND this bird survived. He successfully flew all 12 of his missions, including this last one while severely wounded. It is not a matter of being fragile, or smart. Even a severely wounded bird wants to go home, and as I said, if there is one thing these birds excel at, its getting home. There are other examples, of hero pigeons.

 

Further, Moraine is one of the best connected characters in the entire series. Surely over the course of her travels she has sent and recieved thousands of messages by pigeon. If we assume that she is bound by the 3 oaths, and I don't see why we shouldn't, then when she says she sent 3 to be sure, then she WAS in fact relatively sure that 3 would be sufficient. Has anyone reading this post ever sent a message by pigeon? I certainly have not. Shouldn't we at least consider that Moraine is an expert at the sending and recieving of messages by pigeon, and as such shouldn't her surety count for something?

 

Iceman, Your points are well taken, and I do not really think that the Black Ajah is supressing all information, I believe that it is being selective.

For example, (cybertrolloc) I believe that another example of BA suppression of information is readily available to us. We know that Alviarin is BA,and that she works for Messanna. Messanna's stated goal is to keep the tower divided, and she is interested in keeping both sides of the tower split fighting the other for as long as possible. I think that it could be argues that Elaida would have been pulled down in pretty short order if the truth about Dumai's wells and the black tower excursion came to light too soon. In fact no word reached the tower aes sedai, of these two events until Egwene arrives, making these revelations less damaging to Elaida. In fact is seems fortuitous that once Alviarin is set aside by Elaida and given her daily pennances, word reaches nearly every ajah of these two events.

 

This is also why I believe that the BA does not control any specific set of ajah eyes and ears, but rather is in control of the cotes themselves. They get all the messages, read and pass on the ones that don't harm them, and suppress the ones that are counter to BA goals. Simple and effective.

[Beckon]

Beckon, I was not implying that anyone who doesn't share my opinion is stupid, I was implying that you were. Not because you didn't share my opinion, but because you felt the need to call my theory, which is in my opinion reasonably well reasoned and articulated, absurd. Just because you couldn't see the possible implications doesn't make me absurd, anymore than me taking offense really makes you stupid. If you don't think I'm absurd, I won't think you're stupid, fair enough?

 

I did not say you or your theory was absurd I said your insistance that your theory is the only possible explanation was absurd and I will stand by that. I've said, Luckers has said, megon has said, that sure it's absolutely possible that the pigeons were intercepted. Repeatedly.

 

But the possibility that three pigeons were intercepted is hardly proof that the Black Ajah is successfully intercepting every pigeon sent to every ajah and their agents, or that they control every dovecote in use by those ajahs and their agents, thus controlling everything that everyone knows.

 

Suian was no more than irritated that Moiraine wasn't keeping in closer contact with her. She didn't act like she thought it was out of character for her. Verin once commented to herself that Moiraine never saw fit to tell anyone anything they didn't need to know. Even aside from that you listed a handful of places where she would have been able to send word. Even if she sent word from all of them and all those pigeons were intercepted at most it indicates someone was intercepting Suian's communications.

[cloglord]

I've never said that my theory was the only possible explaination. I have repeatedly pointed out examples of why I think it is more likely that they were intercepted by BA than simply failed to appear.

 

Since you seem unable to adress any of my points specifically I will summarize them, and allow you to answer them point by point. Should I find that your explainations are more plausible than mine, I will concede. However, I have yet to find anyone who can refute my points with any degree of accuraccy. (Since it appears that Luckers has been pulling his pigeon research out of his head.)

 

Please answer any or all of the following questions

 

1. Why does Moraine seem sure that 3 pigeons would "be sure" to make it, if they were not?

 

2. Why does the pigeon that arrives with a message from Moraine arrive 2 weeks late, when I have been assured by a homing pigeon expert that the primary reason for a bird to be lost is to predators, and their proven first instinct is to return home with the greatest degree of speed?

 

3. Why does ony 1 message arrive from Moraine in the space of 4 months regarding the subject of their shared live's mission?

 

4. Why would Moraine send at least 4 messages from Tear if she were worried about her messages being intercepted and used against Siuan?

 

5. Why does word of Dumai's wells and the black tower debacle take 5 books to reach the tower aes sedai? Why is this the case, when Alviarin muses to herself that the ajahs had passed information to her about Rand's appearance at Colvalere's coronation party days in advance of her informing Elaida of the Dumai's wells disaster?

 

 

Please keep in mind that I won't accept as an answer, "Cause Luckers said....."

[Luckers]

Well, its good to know my word is good for something, even if it is just getting ideas dismissed.

 

I'm not actually going to discuss this, though i will clarify my position before i go, since it seems to have been twisted.

 

There is a high chance that the message didn't make it because of foul play. There is, however, a strong factual basis for the inherent untrustworthyness of pigeons, something that RJ would likely know, given his historical background, so i do not feel that it can be stated to a certainty that it was foul play and not the result of accidents. Now cloglord will tell you that i pulled these facts from my head. I did not, i actually studied the whole affair last year in (this will make you laugh) Comparative Religion. It was required as a part of my thesis work on what contributes to the success of major religions. I had three sources on communication, though i can only find the names of two. The Growth of Culture by Mirceas Eliade and The Information Highway of the Old World by R. Elliot.

 

But meh. I don't really mind what people what to say about my sources, i just wanted my position on the record. Continue with your discussion of the Pigeon Conspiracy.

[Beckon]

1. Why does Moraine seem sure that 3 pigeons would "be sure" to make it, if they were not?

a) Normally they would be.

b) She's not omniscient.

c) She was mistaken.

 

2. Why does the pigeon that arrives with a message from Moraine arrive 2 weeks late, when I have been assured by a homing pigeon expert that the primary reason for a bird to be lost is to predators, and their proven first instinct is to return home with the greatest degree of speed?

 

I'd answer this one but since Luckers already pointed it out apparently I'm not allowed to mention it.

 

3. Why does ony 1 message arrive from Moraine in the space of 4 months regarding the subject of their shared live's mission?

 

Again, I've never, and neither has anyone else denied that it's possible, even likely, that someone is intercepting Suian's mail at the tower. Additionally Moiraine has a reputation for being circumspect to a fault. Verin and Suian both express annoyance at it. When Siuan finally receives the note from Moiraine she says she wishes Moiraine had told her more. Min asks why she didn't and why it took so long and Siuan tells her to ask Moiraine, she always went her own way. Suian doesn't consider the lack of communication out of character for Moiraine. Suian, her closest friend for her entire adult life.

 

4. Why would Moraine send at least 4 messages from Tear if she were worried about her messages being intercepted and used against Siuan?

 

Why would she not worry? You're saying there's a grandiose Black Ajah plot to control the dovecotes used by Ajah eyes and ears but Moiraine is supposed to be dense enough to think she doesn't need to be discreet in her communications with Suian? She's known of the existance of the Black Ajah, known they were trying just as hard as she to find the Dragon Reborn, for 20 years. She's spent that entire length of time hiding what she's about but she's suddenly going to decide to throw caution to the wind and send a pigeon to Suian every time she passes a dovecote.

 

5. Why does word of Dumai's wells and the black tower debacle take 5 books to reach the tower aes sedai? Why is this the case, when Alviarin muses to herself that the ajahs had passed information to her about Rand's appearance at Colvalere's coronation party days in advance of her informing Elaida of the Dumai's wells disaster?

 

...of her informing Elaida of the Dumai's wells disaster. We know Alviarin keeps information from Elaida. I tire of repeating that I've never denied that someone could be intercepting pigeons at the tower.

 

You're entire theory of a far reaching Black Ajah conspiracy to control Ajah eyes and ears is based on the failure of messages to get from Moiraine to Suian and only from Moiraine to Suian. Even your example with Alviarin and Elaida only indicates pigeons being intercepted at the tower.

 

Please keep in mind that I won't accept as an answer, "Cause Luckers said....."

 

Any time you're ready to stop insulting my intelligence go right ahead. Again, and for the last time I don't deny that it's possible, even likely, that someone intercepted the pigeons Moiraine sent from Tear. I'll even admit that it's possible Moiraine sent other messages to Suian which were also intercepted. I will not however, concede that to be evidence of anything more than someone intercepting Suian's mail. Your vast Black Ajah plot needs more proof than the success rate of pigeons sent to one location.

[cloglord]

We know Alviarin keeps information from Elaida ... Even your example with Alviarin and Elaida only indicates pigeons being intercepted at the tower.

 

 

Thank you.

 

Alviarin, BA Leader, keeps information from the Amrylin. There is an indication that pigeons are being intercepted at the tower. If pigeons are being intercepted at the tower, by the BA, then there is an indication that the BA has control over what information the tower has, and when they get it. I wonder, if say, there was a trolloc invasion into Shienar, headed for TV, if it would be important for the BA to be able to delay word of it. I wonder if Aes Sedai were late arriving to the aid of Malkier, because of a lack of intellegence on the matter. I wonder, if Siuan was deposed, because she didn't have all the knowledge she needed. I wonder if Elaida underestimated the rebel forces, because she only had Tarna's report to go by. I wonder why Elaida had no idea where Tenobia was, when we know she was accompanied by a number of aes sedai, and met by even more in the black hills.

 

I think that this is an important piece of the puzzle to understanding how screwed up and disfunctional the aes sedai have been. THis is my theory, my hypothesis, and in true scientific method, I am putting this up as the best explaination to date, of why these things have happened the way they have. Sure, there are alternate takes, but I think mine is the best, and I'll defend it. I don't think its absurd, to put up a theory and then defend it.

 

As for the bits about luckers. I like luckers, but I think he's way off on his facts here. While I normally find him to be a pretty reliable source, he's way off base here. The only explaination I can come up with, is that his research was on carrier pigeons and not homing pigeons, which are an entirely different species. While I like Luckers, I have also observed a tendency on these boards, for other posters to blindly follow down the path he lays down. He has great theories, but they are just that, theories, like mine. I cringe a little bit when we have entire discussions debating hypotheticals that take one or another of Luckers, or anybody else's theories for that matter, for factual basic assumptions.

 

The reason I keep coming back here, is that from time to time, we have very good debates based on facts,(taking into consideration that we are debating a work of fiction,). And I have become oddly protective of that level of discussion.

 

Like I said, Beckon's not stupid, Lucker's isn't a liar, and I don't think I'm absurd. I thought that this was an interesting an valid discussion.

[Beckon]

I'm sorry if you think that my sharing an opinion with Luckers means I'm just parroting what he already said. If you look up a thread called LTT and the Taint you'll find no shortage of occassions on which I've disagreed with him.

 

My opinions on the reliability of pigeons are based neither on what you said or what Luckers said. They're based on my common sense observation that they're tiny little birds who have to fly many hundreds of miles in a nasty drought across lands populated by other critters which consider pigeons to be lunch.

 

I wonder if Elaida underestimated the rebel forces, because she only had Tarna's report to go by. I wonder why Elaida had no idea where Tenobia was, when we know she was accompanied by a number of aes sedai, and met by even more in the black hills

.

 

Elaida underestimates a lot of things, and is just blatantly wrong about a lot more because she's a fool. She believes what she wants to believe and instead of adapting to new info she bends the info to fit her belief. She doesn't know where Tenobia is because she's not reading the books? Not quite sure why the fact that the readers know something is reason why Elaida should know.

 

 

You've shown there is a likelihood of info being intercepted at a single place. That's justifaction for looking for evidence of the same in other places but it's not evidence in itself of such a vast plot. I assume you would have quoted it by now if it was there but I don't remember anyone else expressing any doubt that their pigeons were arriving at their destinations as expected.

[cloglord]

The reason I bring up Elaida not knowing where Tenobia is, is because....

 

1. Elaida has expressed a desire to know where she is, she has sent her Letters, and suddenly can't find her.

 

2. Tenobia is currently and has been surrounded by Aes Sedai since her "dissapearance".

 

What are the chances that none of those sisters has sent a message to Tar Valon? Not very good if the reaction of the queen of Kandor is any gauge. She seemed to think that the tower probably knew their every move, based on the fact that 13 aes sedai showed up at their secret meeting in the black hills, yet Elaida seems to be clueless. I wonder why?

 

Your common sense observation is, I believe, to be a faulty one. Rabbits are frail creatures, subject to all sorts of nasty predators, yet somehow thay manage to survive and thrive. They go on doing their little bunny thing. In the case of homing pigeons, their pigeon thing, is to go home, something they do so well that they have been used to great success as meesengers in all sorts of real world situations. You only need to read my earlier posts to see cited and concrete examples of homing pigeons carrying messages under any number of adverse situations.

[Beckon]

No amount of examples of death-defying pigeon heroics will disprove that sometimes, in spite of how good they are at what they do, they don't make it.

[cloglord]

You're right, I'm not looking for an absolute smoking gun, here. Birds get killed, they die. The bird that I mentioned however flew something like 52 missions successfully before being wounded. 52-0. It is a matter of likelyhoods. Is it more likely that 3 out of 4 birds died enroute, or is it more likely that they were intercepted at their destination? If they are being intercepted, is it more likely that they are being intercepted by every eyes and ears keeper and being withheld, or is it more likely that a single person, or a group of people working under a single director is to blame? What is the most likely explaination?

[cloglord]

I'm sorry, I mixed up my hero birds. Sher Ami successfully flew 12 missions, it was another hero bird that flew 50 some missions

[Beckon]

You're right' date=' I'm not looking for an absolute smoking gun, here. Birds get killed, they die. The bird that I mentioned however flew something like 52 missions successfully before being wounded. 52-0. It is a matter of likelyhoods. Is it more likely that 3 out of 4 birds died enroute, or is it more likely that they were intercepted at their destination? If they are being intercepted, is it more likely that they are being intercepted by every eyes and ears keeper and being withheld, or is it more likely that a single person, or a group of people working under a single director is to blame? What is the most likely explaination?[/quote']

 

When all your evidence involves a single location? A single person or director.

[cloglord]

No, we have several instances where we can infer that a message was likely sent and not recieved. We only have one crystal clear example of messages that were certainly sent, and were certainly not recieved.

 

We know for sure that these 3 messages did not arrive. We can add to that other examples of possible interceptions to support this one case. I believe its called circumstantial evidence, and of itself not generally admissible, but can certainly be used to bolster the hard facts. I will list a few for you.

 

1:Elaida does not know where Tenobia is, despite the fact that she is traveling in the company of 13 aes sedai.

 

2:The entire tower was clueless to the peril that Malkier was in until it was too late.

 

3:Alviarin manages to keep word from reaching the ajahs about Dumai's wells and The Black Tower until after she is set aside.

 

These sorts of things, taken in conjuntion with the fact that we KNOW that Moraine sent messages that she was relatively sure would arrive, did not arrive, and I think that it points at something more than a few pigeons getting eaten enroute. If I get the time, I'll quote the relevant passages of KoD's were members of 3 ajahs express suprise at how long it took for news of the wells to reach them.

[cloglord]

Well, I obviously didn't get the time to quote those passages, but I did run across something that I had to add here.

 

God, I love RJ, sometimes he gives me little tiny presents with each re-read.

 

In PoD in the epilouge, RJ mentions the snowstorms and Cemaros, that resulted from the use of thebowl of the winds. Do you know what he uses to illustrate the ferocity of the weather?

 

.......He says that the storms were so bad, that sometimes 2 out of 3 pidgeons sent by merchants were lost to the weather and predators. Man, those storms must be BAD if 2 out of 3 were lost. Must have been a pretty crappy couple of days that all three of Moraine's messages got lost on the way to TV.

 

 

Thanks for the vindication RJ. :)

[cloudcrono]

I think you have a decent point Cloglord. Interesting theory.

[G the brave]

I seam to remember this thread a while back... lets not go here :-s it just ended up being a discussion about pidgion sats.

 

As said before its a good theory but only a possibility not certainty. I dont think we can say that the whole black ajah is on control of the tower just based on the fact that 3 pidgeons didn't fly half way across the world.

 

(sorry about te spelling)

[cloglord]

I never said that the whole tower was controlled by the BA, I hypothosized that they were intercepting the eyes and ears messages, and deciding which ones got through.

 

The passage I found preempts any discussion of pigeon stats, as it is an indication of how RJ views the reliability of message carrying pigeons as they exist in his creation. Simply, RJ says here, that even under the worst conditions, 1 out of 3 pigeons make it.

[Guest Egwene]

A couple of thoughts that might be of nterest in the context of this discussion...

 

When Moiraine said that she send three messages to be sure, I understood this to mean she send them via three different 'outlets'. One via the Blues eyes and ears, one via the Tower/Amyrlin ones, and one via her own eyes and ears.

 

As for pidgeons...

 

over 100,000 were used in the war (WWI) with an astonishing success rate of 95% getting through to their destination with their message.

from http://www.historylearningsite.co.uk/pigeons_and_world_war_one.htm

 

I think that the Tower with all its access to resources would have the best of the best in message pigeons... it does seem odd that only one got through, and late at that :roll:

[G the brave]

Sorry my mistake about controling the tower.. didnt mean to write that.

 

I dont think there is near enough evidance to say they control the tower though. For one thing it isn't specified that all the messages for eyes and ears arrive at the top of the white tower. Many sisters might well ask there eyes and ears to deliver the pidgions to other parts of the city so as to decieve/keep secret how many eyes and ears they have. Aies Sedi are so secretive that i doubt if 20% of the messages for aies sedi even arrive at the tower. most probably pay some towns folk down in the main city to keep dove cotes.

 

Also with the dark one putting his touch on the world it is probable that the success rate for messages was far lower than average because of the freezing winter and harsh summer etc. There just isn't evidance to say that the Black Ajah control the eyes and ears..