Eqwene's Seanchan woman dream

[DemandredFO]

Anonymous, why is the plan likely to fail? In my opinion the seanchan soldiers are very good and the Demane know pratically every way to destroy something. Also Eliada will likely freeze because she can adapt to changes, no AS does willingly. The demane have overwhelming numbers. If you bring lots of Asha'man that changes things but I believe the Asha'man will be otherwise occupied.

[Phiotr AlManera]

I wouldn't think critically about the series unless I was a fan.

Just joking man :)

 

So you don't consider Rand's trap for the renegade Asha'man at the end of WH idiotic? You don't consider Egwene's decision to break White Tower law and do the harbor chain mission herself idiotic? Were they necessary to the storyline? Yes, but they were still idiotic.

Well, I do agree these were very risky things to do but to plainly call them idiotic is a bit over the top I think. Rand's Far Madding city trip was already discussed somewhere... And as for Egwene, she did it because she could change the chains faster than anybody else. Also, had she not been betrayed I do believe she would've gotten away with it.

 

As for the White Tower-attack, I agree with some things you said, Anonymous. It is a high risk the Seanchan are taking and I don't directly see a major strategic goal being accomplished with this attack. Especially this

...located 1400 miles into enemy territory and at least 2 weeks away from reinforcements and re-supply...

bugs me

[phlpr23]

It was debated quite thoroughly in "Just a little Respect" but then the server crashed and a lot of the thread got deleted.

[Luckers]

I actually think it is about 6,000 damane in Randland. Even if it was 10,000 damane in Randland, I would have trouble imagining a commander authorizing that mission. If you are right and the assault includes 3,000 damane/sul'dam pairs with 6,000 infantry, you are talking about commiting 30% (for 10,000 Damane case) of your force on an assault on a city with a realistic populaton of over 500,000 people, an army of 50,000 soldiers and 300 channelors, located 1400 miles into enemy territory and at least 2 weeks away from reinforcements and re-supply.

 

I too think its around 6,000. What im suggesting, however, is that the White Tower represents a MASSIVE target for the Seanchan. Between their cultural history, instinctive fear and desire to leash, they would not only see it as being a good military target, but as a duty they must fulfill to keep the world safe. The tower is the only organisation of channelers they know of, remember. Aside from the Asha'men that is, and prior to learning of the Wise Ones.

 

I think they would risk commiting 50% of their forces. Especially when theres the chance they can leash every Aes Sedai by surprise (we dont know how much they know of the situation in the Tower). From there they need hold the city against the armies, whilst the to'raken ship in more soldiers. Its a viable plan--one that in the long run i believe would have failed due to the Rebels, but thats with what we know as readers.

 

Considering how valuable Damane are to the Seanchan, I can't say it is a wise course of action. I can't even say its understandable under the circumstances. It's foolish, but Jordan wrote a "Seanchan assault on the White Tower" dream/prophecy, so now he has to make it happen. It is likely to fail, and since every Seanchan general appears to have gone to some sort of military school, they should see that.

 

I dont think its as foolish as you do. If they can gain and hold the Tower they can bottleneck the army. With 3,000 damane they could achieve that, and any counter-attack within the confines of the city would be imensely bloody, bringing great loss on the Aes Sedai and the Tar Valoners--especially given the Oaths, which the Seanchan do know about.

 

I think it would have failed in the long run, but it would also have destroyed the Tower. The Aes Sedai would have had to have killed, or captured every one of them, which would have been messy, even with the tricks the Wondergirls got from Moghedian. Very messy.

 

And what if the Seanchan did manage to hold out those two weeks. Its not inconcievable with a force of that many channelers. The Rebels may have the novices to used like batteries in circles, and may know many nifty weaves, but the simply numbers of the Seanchan, and the fact that it would be fighting in the city... it would bottleneck, and unless the Aes Sedai were willing to attack them directly, and fight until one or the other isn't standing, which i dont see them doing, then i dont see this battle ending quickly, or easily.

[phlpr23]

That is a good responce Luckers.

[Guest Anonymous!]

Yes that was a good response, except I just noticed something in my notes from the Guide. You see I don't own the Guide, a friend of mine does, and so I borrowed it once and made some notes. That is why I don't entirely trust my facts.

 

In my notes it says two very important things: 1) To'Raken cannot perch, 2) To'Raken need a running start of 100 paces. The fact that they cannot perch indicates to me that the To'Raken cannot stop flying on a dime. They need a few paces on the ground before they can stop their momentum completely. If anyone has any other thoughts on why they cannot perch let me know. The fact that To'Raken need a running start indicates to me that they need a constant forward velocity over their wings to generate enough lift to stay in flight. This means they cannot hover in one place. They always need to keep moving forward.

 

To DemandredFO I have many issues with this plan but these facts leads me to the most obvious and critical flaw in the Tactical part of this plan-How are they going to deploy their forces? Look at the map of Tar Valon, I see tons of buildings, and very few open strips to land 1000 To'Raken. They can't perch which makes it difficult for them to land on anything but the largest buildings. The wingspans of the To'Raken won't allow them to land in most of the streets. Since they require forward velocity over their wings to stay in flight, they won't be able to hover in one place and allow the riders to drop down using ropes. Since they need 100 paces to take-off, how do you propose to get the already unloaded To'Raken off the ground?

 

The only way that I can see the Seanchan getting their troops on the ground is by landing inside the White Tower grounds. Even then it will be a few dozen To'Raken at a time. Each To'Raken will have to be unloaded, then moved out of the way for the next batch of To'Raken to land. Talk about time consuming. All the while the To'Raken still waiting to land will come under bow, crossbow, and One Power fire from the Aes Sedai on both the Salidar and Tar Valon sides. Then after all the troops are landed, they will have to clear 100 paces long runways in the city. This will involve knocking down buildings, and not just any buildings; ogier built buildings. The soldiers will have to do this while fighting off 10's of thousands of soldiers, and 100's of thousands of pro-Aes Sedai civilians who won't be too happy that the Aes Sedai are being leashed. Don't forget they are in a city and we know from the Rand's last war with the Seanchan that Damane can't attack what they can't see or know is there. So they will lose 100's of Damane and Sul'dam to arrows, rocks, and sudden overwhelming mobs, let alone the numbers they lost trying to land, and cover the landing. Oh and don't forget you need to protect the grounded 1,000 To'Raken until the runways are built...which requires troops, lots of troops.

 

And that is just the issues of getting troops on the ground, and getting the To'Raken back into the sky to get reinforcements and re-supply. The only other possibility that I see is to land outside the city, and fight their way through the Rebel army (which would put Egwene in a bad situation), fight across the river and into the city and finally take the Tower. Ouch!

 

Personally, I think the Aerial Assault is intended for the Black Tower, not the White. It makes more sense from every point of view, and it will be almost as significant, if not just as significant for morale, since the Asha'man did quite handedly defeat the Damane. The Black Tower is not in a hostile city, it does not have 50,000 troops and 300 channelors defending it, it does not have a hostile force of 50,000 troops and 1500 channelors surrounding it, it is only 200 miles to the north, which means they can be there in 1 day, it is surrounded by open farm land (The Black Tower used to be called "the Farm") allowing for easy take off and landings. Operationally and Tactically it's just easier, and will still have a significant Strategic importance. Plus they don't need to spend weeks on this operation. It could be as simple as, fly to the Black Tower, kill as many Asha'man as possible, and fly back after the raid is done. You will only put your Damane at risk for 3-4 days. Also you wouldn't need to send as many Soldiers. So that 2000 soldier and 700 damane/sul'dam pairs could be just as easily 1000 soldiers and 1500 damane/sul'dam pairs. That should at least kill all the Asha'man in the training grounds.

 

Edit: I know that the general planning the Aerial Attack had a map of Tar Valon on his table. This could have been for planning of future assaults, or it could have been Jordan trying to throw us off so we will be surprised.

 

To Ph'iotr Al'Manera: So instead of saying idiotic would "unwise" be better or how about a "poor decision." :P Anyway I put it I don't think highly of the decisions.

 

To Luckers: Edit: I misread a section of your post above, and I made a counter-argument that wasn't necessary. Sorry.

[DemandredFO]

Anonymous, I have a problems with that argument and a question. My question is do we actually know how many Asha'Man are at the Black Tower? My problems are A. I don't see why the Demane can't clear runways, after all, they are very good at destroying things and there will be at least 1000 of them. B. Aes Sedai cannot attack if they don't know if it's Shadowspawn or darkfriends, the Asha'Man can. I think that's why Flynn was put in charge of that circle at the end of WH. C. We don't know the level of training of High Captain Chubane's men cuz we have gotten not POV's of him.

Seperate issue, if the Asha'man saw they were severely outnumbered they could engage in OP-aided guerrilla warfare which would make the Seanchan position very difficult. As for importance of taking the WT, Tuon said she wanted it as her capitol. I agree that a WT assault would be difficult for logistical reasons but I beleive they have sufficent impetus to make a spirited attempt. I don't see the attack failing.

 

P.S. I am visually impaired and probably wouldn't not be able to see a map of Tar Valon even if I had the books in print form which I don't. Nevertheless, I have maps in my from descriptions in the books but I am sure they aren't as good as a map

[BrainFireBob]

Anonymous-

 

We are continually told the top levels are uninhabited, and the Tower itself is possessed of a large, flat top, with access to the Tower proper. Something like a 500 broad flat space. Sufficient for landing for a flyer, if not an airplane, and they can "dive" to takeoff quite adequately.

 

The Seanchan can land troops at night on the Tower roof, and occupy the upper levels secretly. This means their attack would be launched from INSIDE the Tower, a brilliant military operation, especially in Randland where airdrops aren't considered in combat. The Aes Sedai don't even like going to the higher levels, and no one else bothers.

[Luckers]

In my notes it says two very important things: 1) To'Raken cannot perch, 2) To'Raken need a running start of 100 paces. The fact that they cannot perch indicates to me that the To'Raken cannot stop flying on a dime. They need a few paces on the ground before they can stop their momentum completely. If anyone has any other thoughts on why they cannot perch let me know. The fact that To'Raken need a running start indicates to me that they need a constant forward velocity over their wings to generate enough lift to stay in flight. This means they cannot hover in one place. They always need to keep moving forward.

 

Well id suggest the best place for them to land would be the roof of the Tower. The Guide specifically states that the Tower is 300 paces accross at the base, and tapers slightly as it rises, but certainly it will be more then 100 paces. A decline of more then two thirds its width would be structurally unsound. We know there is a flat roof.

 

The only way that I can see the Seanchan getting their troops on the ground is by landing inside the White Tower grounds. Even then it will be a few dozen To'Raken at a time. Each To'Raken will have to be unloaded, then moved out of the way for the next batch of To'Raken to land.

 

I suspect it will be, but on the roof of the Tower. We also know that the upper floors of the tower are uninhabited. So, we have a force of gliding, non-motorised creatures arriving in the dead of night, in a place where, in truth, the Aes Sedai feel themselves beyond attack. Using a staggered landing pattern, and waiting until a sufficient force is in place (likely not the entire force, but the entire force wouldn't be needed, only around 300 damane and sul'dam, and a thousand soldiers)

 

So start the landings at about 3 in the morning, begin the attack at around 5:30 and continue having your forces land. The tower would be taken and held, and by the time any sort of true counter-offensive is staged your full force is there.

 

All the while the To'Raken still waiting to land will come under bow, crossbow, and One Power fire from the Aes Sedai on both the Salidar and Tar Valon sides. Then after all the troops are landed, they will have to clear 100 paces long runways in the city. This will involve knocking down buildings, and not just any buildings; ogier built buildings.

 

Well a) why? 100 paces is not a long distance, they can just take off again from the roof. b) attack during the night, and the Tower is held before any counter-offensive is launched. Certainly landing on the tower takes them far out of bow range, and the Aes Sedai cannot use the power unless they think the target, specifically, at that moment, is threatening them or another sister. Specifically. It cant just be, well, once they land they will be, it has to be at that moment.

 

Realistically once they hold the tower there is nothing that can get high enough to stop them landing more troops. Perhaps some soldiers could get in lucky shots from some of the higher towers, but not enough to be an issue, and the second one to'raken comes under fire there are damane to blow that tower out of the skyline. Or shield the to'raken with flows of air like Moiraine does in New Spring (horses--not to'raken).

 

Personally, I think the Aerial Assault is intended for the Black Tower, not the White. It makes more sense from every point of view, and it will be almost as significant, if not just as significant for morale, since the Asha'man did quite handedly defeat the Damane.

 

Except we know from Egwene's dream, the map in KoD, and the seeker in Winters Heart, that the attack is marked for the White Tower, not the black. And besides, whats to be gained from attack the Black Tower for the Seanchan? Attacking the White Tower is not a matter of morale to the Seanchan, its a matter of cultural imperative. Like modern America and Terrorism, or back in the day, Communism. Men who can channel... they are filthy and must be exterminated, yes, like a murderer or a pedophile. But they arn't the great threat to civilisation that the Aes Sedai in the Armies of Night were.

 

Finally the Seanchan must know that the Asha'man are with the two armies in Arad Domon and Illian. Rand placed them there specifically as a bargaining chip against the Seanchan, and we know the Seanchan have people in both lands (Illian and Tear, at least, though probably Arad Domon as well) as scouts.

 

To Luckers: Edit: I misread a section of your post above, and I made a counter-argument that wasn't necessary. Sorry.

 

Was this ^ referring to this...

 

And that is just the issues of getting troops on the ground, and getting the To'Raken back into the sky to get reinforcements and re-supply. The only other possibility that I see is to land outside the city, and fight their way through the Rebel army (which would put Egwene in a bad situation), fight across the river and into the city and finally take the Tower. Ouch!

 

Because i concede thats immensely unlikely.

[Phiotr AlManera]

Doesn't the seanchan airborn assault on Amador and the Fortress of the Light (ACoS) prove that it's possible to undertake these kind of attacks on cities and fortified places using raken?

[BrainFireBob]

Personally, I thought that was foreshadowing of the Tower attack, myself.

 

First thought when I read the BWB was that the Seanchan were going to attack through the Tower roof- and I read it when it was new. I was starting to think I was crazy until CoT, though.

[Phiotr AlManera]

Carmen Electra Giving A Head And Taking A Load!

 

I hope nobody's so dumm to click this link as I'm quite sure Carmen Elektra will be giving you a little virus then.

Does somebody now how to git rid of mooky-the-wanker?

[Guest Barmacral]

The other day I wasn't paying attention and actually did click on one.

 

Clicking the link did not give me a virus, however, it brought up a browser window where it wanted to show you the video in windows media player. The catch? Windows Media Player needed a special codec to play the video, and the codec I know from past experience of trying to watch other things on the internet is the virus.

 

That said, still don't click the link, because even just clicking the thing can be dangerous to your computer and security.

[Guest Anonymous!]

Look the point of my argument is that it's going to be difficult. There are many issues associated with taking the White Tower by air, and it's not as simple as the Seanchan showing up and just collaring the Aes Sedai and making mince meat of the Tar Valon Army. They are going to take casualties, lots of casualties. And then they have to hold a massive city filled with a hostile populace, surrounded by an enemy army, with very few troops ... that usually ends ugly.

 

DemandredFO: I don't doubt the Damane can clear landing ways by knocking over buildings and then turning the soil to make a nice flat surface to land and take-off on. The reason I didn't mention it was a result of trying to maintain surprise. Leveling dozens of buildings is going to be really loud, notifying everyone that something destructive is going on.

 

As to the Shadowspawn thing and Aes Sedai attacking them, I don't think that will be a problem. Jordan made a point in KoD to demonstrate that the "weapon" oath can be very restrictive to some sisters (Mat's scenes at the end). A weapon is something that can be used to attack or cause harm to another. Whether its a book, a fork, a gun, or economics, if it is used to harm or attack another, than it can be considered a weapon. Jordan also made a point in KoD (Cadsuane's air switch) and LoC (Rand's beating into submission) that the "weapon" oath is very subjective to other sisters. Added to the fact that the Seanchan represent imprisonment, which to some sisters may represent a threat to their lives, I'm willing to bet a good portion of the 200+ Aes Sedai in the White Tower and 300+ on the Rebel side will attack. Also the only thing approaching the size of a To'Raken that can fly is a Draghkar, some of them might honestly believe these beasts are shadowspawn. So I don't see too many sisters having trouble rationalizing the need to attack the Seanchan landings, takeoffs, and re-supply operations.

 

Luckers, BrainFireBob:

 

First off, the last time I checked Elaida lives on the top floor of the White Tower. That happened in ACoS, so there is a good chance the Aes Sedai the Seanchan have captured wouldn't know that anyone is living on the top level. And it takes just one person to raise the alarm that they are under attack. Not a guarantee, just a potential problem.

 

Second, I hadn't thought of the roof. That might work during the day. Unfortunately with night landings, I always think of 10-50. In WWII, during Operation Overlord (ie D-Day) less than 10% of the airdrops and gliders landed in the designated landing zones. Approximately 50% of the Airdrop pilots began dropping their para-troopers up to 2 miles from the designated point, which means they had no idea where they were. I think it is hard enough to conduct night-time air operations with magnetic headings, virtual horizons, airspeed indicators, flashlights, accurate maps, and accurate timing devices. The Seanchan have none of those things. When landing in staggered formations, how are they supposed to see the other To'Raken without lighting or night vision of any kind?

 

Lastly, call me a traditionalist. I don't feel comfortable having an airborne, or seaborne assault deep into enemy territory, unless in conjunction with a ground assault. I think of Market Garden when people mention doing airborne assaults, and not having timely relief by a ground attack. And Market Garden was supposed to be 3 days, and you are talking about weeks before the next Airdrop. It seems far-fetched and fantastical. Granted this is fantasy, and the author can be as unrealistic as he needs to write his story.

[Phiotr AlManera]

I don't feel comfortable having an airborne, or seaborne assault deep into enemy territory, unless in conjunction with a ground assault.

I agree with you on this anonymous. Although I do believe there will be an airborn assault on the WT, I am yet to read a plausible tactic.

Granted this is fantasy, and the author can be as unrealistic as he needs to write his story.

I wouldn't apply this on RJ though.

[Luckers]

Look the point of my argument is that it's going to be difficult. There are many issues associated with taking the White Tower by air, and it's not as simple as the Seanchan showing up and just collaring the Aes Sedai and making mince meat of the Tar Valon Army. They are going to take casualties, lots of casualties. And then they have to hold a massive city filled with a hostile populace, surrounded by an enemy army, with very few troops ... that usually ends ugly.

 

I disagree. At first, it will be as simple as them arriving and collaring the Aes Sedai. Coming from the roof down, its unlikely they'll even face any military forces aside from individual warders--the majority of which, remember, live in the baracks, not in the Tower itself.

 

Even assuming that somehow a warning is raised prior to the Seanchan attacking directly into the sleeping quarters of the Ajah's there is still only limited forces housed within the baracks on Tower Grounds. Certainly not enough to put up any form of strategic resistance against an army with damane in a closed space. There will be very little loss to the Seanchan forces.

 

By the time any reasonable counter-attack could be gathered--which will come from the rebels, who through travelling and organisation will have a much smaller response time then the Tar Valon forces housed in the city, the Tower will be held by Seanchan forces.

 

Here you will see some loss, yes, but not enough to drive the Seanchan out. And, frankly, i see the Aes Sedai being more worried about collateral damage then the Seanchan.

 

It will deadlock. The Aes Sedai, even with travelling and forces do not have the strength to stir an entrenched, channeling army, out of a position like the Tower with any sort of expediency, and the potential losses to Aes sedai life WILL make them hesitate. Nor will it be the only thing for them to concider.

 

I see it as being an intelligent, strategic attack against an unsuspecting and weak enemy. One the seanchan felt morally obliged to undertake.

 

Jordan also made a point in KoD (Cadsuane's air switch) and LoC (Rand's beating into submission) that the "weapon" oath is very subjective to other sisters. Added to the fact that the Seanchan represent imprisonment, which to some sisters may represent a threat to their lives, I'm willing to bet a good portion of the 200+ Aes Sedai in the White Tower and 300+ on the Rebel side will attack.

 

And he made even more clear in CoT with the ships and Tar Valon bay that no matter how interprative the sisters understanding of the oath is, an action that would result in the deaths of human is regarded as a weapon. The Aes Sedai will not be able to attack to'raken without a specific, present threat.

 

There is wiggle room, and then there is this.

 

Also the only thing approaching the size of a To'Raken that can fly is a Draghkar, some of them might honestly believe these beasts are shadowspawn.

 

This i concider a non-issue. Yes, i think Aes Sedai could mistake to'raken for shadowspawn, though not for long. The Aes Sedai know of Seanchan animals, and they know of Egwene's fears. Whatever knee-jerk assumptions they make would not hold up for long, and in the mean-time there are three thousand damane more then trained in the protecting of Seanchan forces from attacks from the one power.

 

I don't see it really even being raised, to be honest. By the time the Tower sisters are aware... well, they'll already be leashed, or engaged in battle with Seanchan. If they even have time to glance at the to'raken you can be sure they'll know their Seanchan. And the Rebels likely wont even be aware of the attack until Egwene reaches them.

 

I mean, how exactly are they going to notice dark skinned gliders at night? Even if they had sentries looking for it, they would likely miss it. And even if they do know, by the time any sort of reasoned response is mounted, then you have logic coming into play and they'll remember about the Seanchan. Any unreasoned responses will be weak, unfocused and easily blocked by the damane... at best, you have maybe ten singed to'raken, no more.

 

First off, the last time I checked Elaida lives on the top floor of the White Tower. That happened in ACoS, so there is a good chance the Aes Sedai the Seanchan have captured wouldn't know that anyone is living on the top level. And it takes just one person to raise the alarm that they are under attack. Not a guarantee, just a potential problem.

 

Elaida doesn't actually live on the top floor, just quite high up. Additionally she is frequently drunk, and certainly assured in her safety. As long as she is not wakened by the landings, which to be honest i dont see her being, she'll be captured before she knows whats happening.

 

Alternatively ive concidered the possibility that the attack is mounted during the dinner with Egwene, and that this might be the source of Egwene stepping up... watching Elaida falter, then leading Tarna and possibly Meidani out of harms why by sneaking past the Seanchan. Even so, no great effect. There are at best 200 sisters spread throughout the tower. Egwene would have little to no time to raise the warning before the Seanchan reach the living quarters. The response certainly would not be organised, and at best all you have is that the Seanchan have more resistance then nothing at all. There would still be little loss of human life.

 

Second, I hadn't thought of the roof. That might work during the day. Unfortunately with night landings, I always think of 10-50. In WWII, during Operation Overlord (ie D-Day) less than 10% of the airdrops and gliders landed in the designated landing zones. Approximately 50% of the Airdrop pilots began dropping their para-troopers up to 2 miles from the designated point, which means they had no idea where they were. I think it is hard enough to conduct night-time air operations with magnetic headings, virtual horizons, airspeed indicators, flashlights, accurate maps, and accurate timing devices. The Seanchan have none of those things. When landing in staggered formations, how are they supposed to see the other To'Raken without lighting or night vision of any kind?

 

Simple answer. Place damane on normal raken led by experts. Get them on the roof, have them mark out the boundaries of the roof with lights--it could be done easily enough in a way that can only be seen from above--its the eay helecopters work in the city.

 

Unless you think the to'raken will be missing the tower entirely, which seems impossible given its size and the fact that it is lit by itself. All they need is a guide for the final landing, which would be up close, and easily managed.

 

Lastly, call me a traditionalist. I don't feel comfortable having an airborne, or seaborne assault deep into enemy territory, unless in conjunction with a ground assault. I think of Market Garden when people mention doing airborne assaults, and not having timely relief by a ground attack. And Market Garden was supposed to be 3 days, and you are talking about weeks before the next Airdrop. It seems far-fetched and fantastical. Granted this is fantasy, and the author can be as unrealistic as he needs to write his story.

 

I just don't see whats so farfetched. I mean, ignoring for the moment that this attack will happen--we've seen enough in the books to know that as a certainty--what we are discussing is placing an attack force with the unequalled levels of surprise in an unsuspecting and weak enemy location.

 

Logistics--its a limited force, and it can trust that the Tower is well stocked.

 

Strength--the tower keeps only a tiny armed forced within its grounds, and almost nothing in the Tower itself. There are 200 Aes Sedai only, easily leashed and quite possibly, if the element of surprise is maintained, without any sort of organised opposition.

 

Drive--they have a cultural perogative to leash Aes Sedai, something unequalled in our world, even by things like terrorism.

 

From there they control a position of power, with a force that far exceeds that of any potential counter-attack--if not in numbers, then in practicality. The Seanchan force, through its channelers, is effectivelly three times that of the enemy, most of which are untrained novices.

 

To me the attack is reasonable, intelligent and close to brilliant. Without Rand it would have been the deathblow for the Aes Sedai... at best they would have retaken the tower, and destroyed the Seanchan... but how many losses on their part would have been needed to push out a force with so many channelers... some your own sisters?

[Myyrth]

Do we even know that their is easy entrance from the roof of Tar Valon? Or even the Tower Grounds?

 

It's not as simple as fly in and land, the Seanchan have very little tactical and strategic knowledge of Tar Valon, it's inner workings or even the layout of the city.

 

We can assume that the Seanchan haven't been scouting Tar Valon, because they surely would have been noticed and mentioned.

 

Not to say I wouldn't enjoy the Seanchan taking over the White Tower. It's just not that simple, and no the Seanchan can't be positive that Tar Valon itself is well stocked, the city has been under seige for a indeterminate about of time. For all the Seanchan know the WT could be close to collapse. And if they did attack, their is a good possibility that many many Aes Sedai would hide in the labrythin corridors and hideways of the WT.

 

Also, preventing a hostile uprising of the people would be difficult considering they are already under strain from a seiging army.

 

If the seanchan take over, i'm pretty sure that the populace would throw their favor to the Rebel Aes Sedai.

 

Also, To'raken can only carry so many soldiers and damane. The Seanchan are pressed on all sides by Dragonsworn, Rebels, Whitecloaks, they need to police their knew lands. Considering all factors how much could they really spare for an all out airborne invasion.

 

It's just impractical if not backed up by a commited ground force.

 

If they did succed in a airborne assault, it would be only temporary. Now if we are accepting this airborne idea as a possiblity I would consider it a possibility that the Tower Guard would swear loyalty to the Rebel Aes Sedai, open the gates and allow 300+ angry Aes Sedai and the army of Gareth Bryne into the city.

 

Blood yes... but the Seanchan would lose.

[Luckers]

Do we even know that their is easy entrance from the roof of Tar Valon? Or even the Tower Grounds?

 

We do. There used to be a garden on the roof, by now it is just empty space. There is an access passage, and the roof is built to allow people to move easily about on it, presumably with railings and the like.

 

It's not as simple as fly in and land, the Seanchan have very little tactical and strategic knowledge of Tar Valon, it's inner workings or even the layout of the city.

 

Concidering their attack will most likely be limited to the Tower, i think it is as simple as that. But in any case, in KoD we see a Seanchan general studying a map of Tar Valon. Clearly they do have access to information about the city and its environs.

 

We can assume that the Seanchan haven't been scouting Tar Valon, because they surely would have been noticed and mentioned.

 

I suspect you are right, i doubt they have all that much recent intel. In fact, i suspect their lack of knowledge about the disposition of the Rebels will be the reason the attack isn't completely successful. They expected to leash all the Aes Sedai in the initial assault, then only have to deal with non-channeling forces in the city. Something easily done until reinforcements arrive. Instead they have to deal with a whole nother force... one that can travel.

 

It wont be enough to dislodge the Seanchan, but it will be enough to hold them.

 

Not to say I wouldn't enjoy the Seanchan taking over the White Tower. It's just not that simple, and no the Seanchan can't be positive that Tar Valon itself is well stocked, the city has been under seige for a indeterminate about of time. For all the Seanchan know the WT could be close to collapse. And if they did attack, their is a good possibility that many many Aes Sedai would hide in the labrythin corridors and hideways of the WT.

 

Well, i think the seanchan would expect the city to be stocked, certainly enough to support an attack force of such limited number (but incredibly power, remember that).

 

As for Aes Sedai hiding, i dont see it. Aside from the fact that the initial attack would catch the Aes Sedai by surprise, and before they could flee, the Seanchan have many thousands of soldiers to do a systematic search as they descend. Yes, the fact that the Tower is large will present Aes Sedai who become aware of the attack to evade their persuers for a time... indeed i see that as being how Egwene will survive, and lead the novices to find those Aes Sedai that escaped the initial attack--additionally i see Pevara and the like evading capture in a similar method, likely being in the bowels of the tower with the ter'angreal.

 

But the point is foreseeability. For the seanchan, of course the Aes Sedai are going to attempt to evade capture. Just emans they have to be good at their jobs... and where would they run to? Yes, in the long run several would have escaped. But the majority would have been captured... at least from the position of Seanchan planning.

 

Also, preventing a hostile uprising of the people would be difficult considering they are already under strain from a seiging army.

 

If the seanchan take over, i'm pretty sure that the populace would throw their favor to the Rebel Aes Sedai.

 

Thats not really an issue as i dont see the Seanchan having ever planned to try and hold the city. Their forces are too small. My guess is that they always planned to only hold the Tower at first, and discourage any sort of action against tower grounds with damane, which against a civillian population, or indeed the army of tar valon, would have been easily done.

 

As i said, the Rebels changed things. But remember when this attack was planned the Rebels sat in Murandy.

 

Also, To'raken can only carry so many soldiers and damane. The Seanchan are pressed on all sides by Dragonsworn, Rebels, Whitecloaks, they need to police their knew lands. Considering all factors how much could they really spare for an all out airborne invasion.

 

They have, as far as i can tell, armed forces roughly numbering around 800,000 with an additional 6 to 8 thousand damane.

 

Can the afford to spare 6,000 soldiers, 3,000 damane and 3,000 sul'dam to strike at public enemy number one, the architects of the Armies of Night... the greatest threat civilisation has ever known?

 

I think that to the Seanchan it would be a no-brainer. And additionally remember that striking and defeating the Aes Sedai now would have decided many things for the common people (ignoring Tarmon Gai'don). You can be sure the Seanchan know of the awe/fear people hold Aes Sedai in... striking down the Tower makes sense. Alot of it.

 

If they did succed in a airborne assault, it would be only temporary. Now if we are accepting this airborne idea as a possiblity I would consider it a possibility that the Tower Guard would swear loyalty to the Rebel Aes Sedai, open the gates and allow 300+ angry Aes Sedai and the army of Gareth Bryne into the city.

 

Blood yes... but the Seanchan would lose.

 

I agree that the Tower Guard will side with the Rebels, as will those Aes sedai that evade capture. Indeed with travelling the Rebels don't need the Tower Guard at all.

 

But even with traveling its not as easy as you make out. Those 300 Aes sedai are bound by the oaths, which would hamper any initiated attack--it would stop them, i agree. But it would bind them, its possible some aes Sedai wouldn't even be able to make gateways into the Tower, because it is making a weapon for one man to harm another.

 

Meanwhile there are 3,000 damane. No more then fifty channelers destroyed a hundred thousand Trollocs in minutes in KoD. Even with the presense of the Aes Sedai, even if they use all the novices, there are still three times as many enemy channelers. I'm not even sure the Aes Sedai would win in the end, and if they did, how many would be left alive?

 

And what of collateral damage? How are the sisters, who realistically a pampared brats for all that they think their training made them ready for anything, going to be able to face attacking the White Tower against an enemy that actually is tried and tested, not to mention holding hundreds of your sisters captive?

 

The seanchan plan was solid. Because of the rebels it became much less so. I think in the long run they would have lost, but even that isn't certain.

 

Which is all besides the point because the attack will happen, irrespective of wether its a good move on behalf of the Seanchan, and it will never be allowed to play out to its finish between Rand's pending alliance with Tuon and Tarmon Gai'don.

[reyler]

Concidering their attack will most likely be limited to the Tower' date=' i think it is as simple as that. But in any case, in KoD we see a Seanchan general studying a map of Tar Valon. Clearly they do have access to information about the city and its environs.[/quote']

 

Not to mention they have at least two damane in their possession who should know their way around the Tower, if not the entire city.

[Myyrth]

Aes Sedai can channel to kill in defense of the soldieres. All they have to do is attack, and once the soldiers are in danger. Also nothing stops them from nullifying the killing weaves of the damane.

[Luckers]

.

Aes Sedai can channel to kill in defense of the soldieres. All they have to do is attack, and once the soldiers are in danger. Also nothing stops them from nullifying the killing weaves of the damane.

 

Actually they can't. Only Warders and other sisters.

 

As for them nullifying weaves... again, there are three times as many damane, and thats if we count the novices. And the damane are far better trained at confrontational usage of the power.

[BrainFireBob]

Second' date=' I hadn't thought of the roof. That might work during the day. Unfortunately with night landings, I always think of 10-50. In WWII, during Operation Overlord (ie D-Day) less than 10% of the airdrops and gliders landed in the designated landing zones. Approximately 50% of the Airdrop pilots began dropping their para-troopers up to 2 miles from the designated point, which means they had no idea where they were. I think it is hard enough to conduct night-time air operations with magnetic headings, virtual horizons, airspeed indicators, flashlights, accurate maps, and accurate timing devices. The Seanchan have none of those things. When landing in staggered formations, how are they supposed to see the other To'Raken without lighting or night vision of any kind?

[/quote']

 

Different situation from D-Day.

 

One, pre-industrial societies means virtually non-existant light pollution. This means night vision is NOT highly impaired- and that a night with a full moon provides a massive degree of visibility.

 

Two, Tar Valon is a very "pale/white" city. Impossible to mistake.

 

Three- There's no "air drop"- the to'raken are LANDING, not dropping and hoping they landed.

 

Four- The Tower is the tallest building by far in the known world. Tallest. By far. And is bone/ivory white. Meaning they don't need to light it. "Land on the giant white circle that's luminescing."

 

Five- Who looks up?

 

Six- Tower Guard is on the walls, facing the besiegers. Warders are generally on the walls or in their barracks, at the base of the Tower. The Seanchan could work their way down long before either group is notified. And considering that the city is being neglected, don't expect a popular uprising in support of the Aes Sedai.

 

Bryne et al won't be able to assist, who would let them in? "Trust me, opposing under-lieutenant, we're on your side now! Just step aside and let us through, and we promise we won't continue with our trying to conquer the wall you're defending."

 

Seven- All, or rather close to all, to'raken with the Return and the Forerunners are commited to this operation. This isn't a series of drops, this is a massive deployment of Fists of Heaven- used to "assault lightly defended positions to the enemy rear", as the BWB tells us, and what's more lightly defended or to the rear of the Aes Sedai than the Tower roof?

 

Eight- If they seize the Tower, they hold the city- much like Bryne can't stop fooding entering the harbors, if the Seanchan seize the Tower gates from the inside, they can drop food Tokyo-express style on the roof and mock attempts to dislodge them.

 

Nine- The Seanchan are under the misapprehension the Tower is coordinating resistance to them, and is on the side of the Shadow, and they know Tarmon Gai'don is coming. Divine mandate, to their mind, requires taking out the Tower- have you not noticed they launched the Return intending to prepare the world for TG, since they believe the Prophecies are about them? The "forgotten sign" prophecy from LoC, the Seanchan think is about Hawkwing's banner. It's as important as Rand kneeling to the DotNM! Quick strike to cut off the head of the serpent.

 

Those are just the counterpoints off the top of my head.

[Phiotr AlManera]

Well, I have no problems with the tower-landings themself. They are experienced with these kind of situations. The roof would be light defended, hell, the roof won't be defended. They already did a simular thing in Amador. The To'raken can carry enough soldiers and damane to pack a serious punch,...

 

But suppose now they have landed, been fighting for lets say 24 hours, taken a defendable portion of the tower and killed or collared 2/3 of the present Aes Sedai and novices.

What follows next?

The damane that have been fighting for 24 hours won't really have much fighting strength left. I even doubt they can last 24 hours. So the exhausted seanchan are sitting there, surrounded by 50.000 experienced soldiers and at least some 50 AS.

What's the seanchan plan now?

An airborn evacuation? A second airborn attack wave?

The guards won't get surprised a second time.

Don't overrate the strength of the raken either.

[Myyrth]

I don't think we are argueing that the Seanchan would actually succed in holding Tar Valon, just collaring a bunch of Elaida's Aes Sedai and giving the city to the Rebels.

 

Overall I welcome an airborne invasion of the WT, It would only end up giving the Rebels the WT with less bloodshed than they would have previously expected.

 

Also, the Warders through their bond would almost instnatly know that their Sisters where under attack.

[Phiotr AlManera]

I don't think we are argueing that the Seanchan would actually succed in holding Tar Valon, just collaring a bunch of Elaida's Aes Sedai and giving the city to the Rebels.

The point I was trying to make is that the WT assault lacks a tactical plan.

If the strategic goal is to decapitate the serpent, then how will they pull this off and come out ahead?