Sailor Moon Mafia [Advanced] Game Thread

[Eldrick4221]

Several posts about the same point. I already said I get it. That marsh doesn't seem to be solving. He is probably scum.

 

But even if he is, he isn't the only one left. Do you have anything to say about what I said regarding FC's interactions? You know, the one we actually know is scum.

[Eldrick4221]

Cloudflare nom

[Fredwood]

 

Here's some unnecessary analogy to try and explain how I view mafia in general, but also specifically my feelings on Iron:

 

Imagine the game of Mafia as a literal mice maze with a reward (say, a block of cheese) at the end.

 

Now imagine two different mice - the first, brand new to the lab, gets unleashed in the maze. it scurries hastily toward the exit, turning at dead ends, backtracking, but continually moving closer toward the reward.

 

The second mouse is a veteran who's done it for years. He gets to the exit on auto-pilot, knowing the path he needs to take.

 

That's how subjective information changes progress. How are wolves different from villagers? Wolves don't need to figure out the game, they just have to act like they're trying to. There is nothing for them to actually figure out. There's no inner workings of curiosity, no new lab rat running into walls.

 

Ironeyes is acting like he's trying to - but he isn't.

 

What does that say to you?

But it's like, all his moves are so obviously wolfy. I looked through and it has zero substance. Would a wolf really act like this? I just can't imagine thinking you could get away with posting like this.

Is Iron new to the game?

I feel bad because if he isn't a wolf I'm really confused by his approach. 

Maybe I'm a tryhard or something, but in either alignment he's not doing his job at all. 

He's not solving and not even seemingly covering his tracks.

I'm not trying to call him bad, in fact he sat in my neutral pile for a while and I even defended him because his early posts didn't seem to have enough there to read him either way. But looking at them all together, he hasn't done anything but push a scruff vote.

 

 

It's hard to duplicate genuine effort.  Being able to sets apart the ok mafia player from a good one.  If you can fake that as a wolf, you're almost always in a favorable position.  Roll wolf sub out.  The downside to being a good wolf is that you're not as good a townie because fewer people trust you, so there is a trade off.

[Spadeszee]

Several posts about the same point. I already said I get it. That marsh doesn't seem to be solving. He is probably scum.

 

But even if he is, he isn't the only one left. Do you have anything to say about what I said regarding FC's interactions? You know, the one we actually know is scum.

I really don't like your tone right now for some reason.

 

 

It might be because I just took 2 hours to do all that work and I'm cranky.

 

 

Can you quote the post because I can't remember which you're referring to and I'm not backtracking right now.

[Fredwood]

So to further answer your question, it's not a matter of him not trying to act less wolfy, it's that he can't act more townie.  

 

I'm not sure where I'm at on it personally, I mean I'm not the one doing the homework,  I'm pretty sure I don't need to ISO to know that in one day he hasn't made a ton of impact, because nothing he did while catching up stood out to me one way or the other.  Defending yourself based on intent instead of actions is just nearly impossible to fight against so he's in a tough position either way, it will be interesting to see his reaction. 

[Fredwood]

I would warn against doing ISOs with the idea that someone is Scum though, confirmation bias can be dangerous.  

 

Not to say this the right way to do it, because I'm often wrong, but I like talking about myself and game theory so here it goes. If something stands out to me as townie or scummy while doing an ISO I try to weigh it against the chances that it can be true if that person was the opposite alignment of what I felt it gave them credit for.   It's why you often will see me post multiple sides of the same argument or multiple scenarios. 

[Spadeszee]

So to further answer your question, it's not a matter of him not trying to act less wolfy, it's that he can't act more townie.  

 

I'm not sure where I'm at on it personally, I mean I'm not the one doing the homework,  I'm pretty sure I don't need to ISO to know that in one day he hasn't made a ton of impact, because nothing he did while catching up stood out to me one way or the other.  Defending yourself based on intent instead of actions is just nearly impossible to fight against so he's in a tough position either way, it will be interesting to see his reaction. 

I needed to ISO him because I remember some of his posts coming off as scummy but my first impression was null. I needed to look at how he progressed.

 

I see what you're both saying though.

 

I think maybe I'm trying to figure out how he could not be scum after reading that ISO. Unless we have ridiculously smart scum who are good at framing (ie the Darthe kill makes him look terrible), I just can't see it any other way right now. I posted my thoughts and perspective so I can get more insight from all of you. I really want to see what Linz thinks because I can trust her.

 

The issue is that he was so chummy with everyone, especially those who voted him. Figuring out the last wolf will be difficult imo. But like Eldrick says, looking at Coward might give answers. Bussing is always a thing, though. This is where I start to get really overwhelmed with this game.

 

Also I'm stuck on this atm, this doesn't mean after I get rest I can't come in with a fresh head and take other perspectives.

[Eldrick4221]

Ok. Looked over FC's posts (there aren't many)

 

The things that stick out to me are:

1. His unexplained town read on bop. I can't find him talking about them anywhere. Just listed as a town read in his little reads list

2. His wolf read on Fred without ever giving a push at it. Was feeling good about Fred, but this could maybe be distancing.

3. His interactions with cuth. There is no effort to solve the slot, even though they are clearly familiar with each other. Drops a meta town read on cuth and moves on.

 

His treatment of cuth bugs me the most

[V]Cuth[/v]

[Eldrick4221]

 

Several posts about the same point. I already said I get it. That marsh doesn't seem to be solving. He is probably scum.

 

But even if he is, he isn't the only one left. Do you have anything to say about what I said regarding FC's interactions? You know, the one we actually know is scum.

I really don't like your tone right now for some reason.

 

 

It might be because I just took 2 hours to do all that work and I'm cranky.

 

 

Can you quote the post because I can't remember which you're referring to and I'm not backtracking right now.

Yeah I know my tone wasn't great. I was getting annoyed. I felt like he was talking to me directly (we were the only 2 ITT after all) and he was trying to convince me of a point I was already on board for. That marsh is probably scum.

 

But after a scum flip, I like to look at how the information they provided could help. My focus is there.

[Eldrick4221]

I also really want to town read cory/clov because of the sheer amount of effort they have put into solving this game.

 

I'm hesitant to do so only because I know that they are excellent players. They remind me of people like shad and AJ. Those 2 can be very convincing townies as scum.

 

I'm gonna move them up to town, but with a paranoid deep wolf tinfoil. And deep wolves aren't something to worry about yet.

[Spadeszee]

 

Ok. Looked over FC's posts (there aren't many)

 

The things that stick out to me are:

1. His unexplained town read on bop. I can't find him talking about them anywhere. Just listed as a town read in his little reads list

2. His wolf read on Fred without ever giving a push at it. Was feeling good about Fred, but this could maybe be distancing.

3. His interactions with cuth. There is no effort to solve the slot, even though they are clearly familiar with each other. Drops a meta town read on cuth and moves on.

 

His treatment of cuth bugs me the most

[V]Cuth[/v]

 

Cuth is next on my list to ISO, and I will probably do the same for FC, and likely you as well.

 

1. I think they joked about liking eachothers icons (hamster bros). The other thing is Bop was certain about his read on Aquallia and then FC just iced the cake for us. Maybe it was to try to get us off him (not even close bby).

2. I've felt weary about Fred, but I can't find logic flaws in his posts. He doesn't seem to be faking, but Fred also seems to have a lot of control of himself so maybe he's really good at wold but not really likely in my brain atm.

3. Cuth is very scummy on my list atm and I reallllllly didn't like how they spoke to eachother at the time. However, I don't feel like his posts today have felt gross like they did yesterday. He seems a bit more involved, so feeling much better.

 

 

 

Several posts about the same point. I already said I get it. That marsh doesn't seem to be solving. He is probably scum.

 

But even if he is, he isn't the only one left. Do you have anything to say about what I said regarding FC's interactions? You know, the one we actually know is scum.

I really don't like your tone right now for some reason.

 

 

It might be because I just took 2 hours to do all that work and I'm cranky.

 

 

Can you quote the post because I can't remember which you're referring to and I'm not backtracking right now.

Yeah I know my tone wasn't great. I was getting annoyed. I felt like he was talking to me directly (we were the only 2 ITT after all) and he was trying to convince me of a point I was already on board for. That marsh is probably scum.

 

But after a scum flip, I like to look at how the information they provided could help. My focus is there.

 

 

I'm pretty sure Corys post was directed at me and trying to help me wrap my brain around how to figure out why people do what they do as wolfs, in his opinion. I could be wrong, but 90% sure it was directed at me. 

 

And I don't feel like FC provided much of anything, but my brain is dead and I want to look him over before I say anything detailed.

 

My issue is more that you seem to not want to talk about Iron, you want to talk about Cuth. You seem annoyed at the focus being put on Iron. You arent the only person who's going to read these, so it's just weird to me you'd get annoyed at people trying to make a case and figure this out.

[Spadeszee]

Also Eldrick, you say "probably scum" for Iron. What is holding you back from thinking they are scum?

[Spadeszee]

Also Eldrick, you say "probably scum" for Iron. What is holding you back from thinking they are scum?

This isn't me pressuring you to vote him or anything, I just really want a different perspective.

[Eldrick4221]

Also Eldrick, you say "probably scum" for Iron. What is holding you back from thinking they are scum?

Basically the feeling that I've seen him act similarly as town in the past. It was a while back.

 

He definitely doesn't look good. If he flipped scum I would not be surprised in the slightest.

 

I know he said it himself, and self meta isn't trustworthy, but he said something about the way he approached the game comes off as scummy. Not only do I think that's probably accurate, but it struck a chord. I have had that issue a lot myself, and I think he's the kind of person that that could be a problem for.

 

So I'm not trying to sway away from his lynch. I'm just trying to also look elsewhere. Like I said when I voted cuth, counter train. They both have scum equity.

[Eldrick4221]

So I read back over the stuff that Cory said. No clue why I got annoyed.

[Eldrick4221]

He does seem to be talking directly to me tho, spades. Yes it's out there for the whole thread to comment on, but it started with me asking him about what he found in past ISOs.

 

Cory, I'm sorry for the attitude.

[Eldrick4221]

 

Also Eldrick, you say "probably scum" for Iron. What is holding you back from thinking they are scum?

 

This isn't me pressuring you to vote him or anything, I just really want a different perspective.

Actually. That's prolly what the issue was.

 

I'm not as confident in the read as Cory is. So his multi post approach at explaining why he's scum felt like pressuring me to vote.

[bopolis]

if i had a dayvig right now i would lay into eldrick so fast based solely on principal

 

thats my initial reaction to catching up

[bopolis]

Cory;

 

i've had the same thoguhts abotu there being 1 between cuth/marsh rather than two based on the way cuth pushed marsh yesterday and the reasoning. I didn't think it was w/w but i've been marinating back and forth whether or not to lock that in or not

[Eldrick4221]

if i had a dayvig right now i would lay into eldrick so fast based solely on principal

 

thats my initial reaction to catching up

Well <3 you too.

 

Mind if I ask why?

[bopolis]

 

if i had a dayvig right now i would lay into eldrick so fast based solely on principal

 

thats my initial reaction to catching up

Well <3 you too.

 

Mind if I ask why?

 

i do

[Eldrick4221]

/shrug

 

Whatevs. Dayvig me if you want. I'll die happy knowing I took a scum down with me.

[MrsClov]

I also really want to town read cory/clov because of the sheer amount of effort they have put into solving this game.

 

I'm hesitant to do so only because I know that they are excellent players. They remind me of people like shad and AJ. Those 2 can be very convincing townies as scum.

 

I'm gonna move them up to town, but with a paranoid deep wolf tinfoil. And deep wolves aren't something to worry about yet.

Considering that Cory was jumping up and down for FC to be lynched and Clov asked me to move over to FC, I'd be SHOCKED if they were deep wolfing. It just doesn't make sense when there was a viable mislynch on the table. I know Chris isn't a fan bussing without a reason, and there just doesn't seem to be a reason for them to bus there. 

[bopolis]

/shrug

 

Whatevs. Dayvig me if you want. I'll die happy knowing I took a scum down with me.

 

o rly

[Eldrick4221]

Yeah. Not lynching them for quite some time.

 

If it somehow gets town to mmmspades, cordyx, and me...ill have a decision to make.