Game Over - Insane Mafia Game. Page 94

[Belal-Mafia]

1. Well from a day one lynch you can start to put together voting patterns and see how people react to the voting. A lot of the way I try to figure things out is from the reactions of people being voted for or reasonings for voting. At the moment there are way more than normal posts for day one so we do have a lot to go on, but then alot of people have been quiet. From the posts so far we might actually be able to pick out someone who is acting as though they are in the mafia which is why we have a good chance of lynching one today instead of going just to a night kill.

 

2. as for you odds, like Ishamael said we can't really assume anything about roles since we have no information on them. And we are in a Nuthouse so as far as I can see anything can and most likely will go.

 

1) As I've pointed out repeatedly, we will have the same number of lynching days whether we go to night today or not.  So the number of opportunities to analyze voting patterns will be the same.  Actually, going to night gives us an extra voting pattern to analyze, since the verdict on Semi will tell us something about the votes on her today.

 

2) That makes no sense.  It doesn't matter how many mafioso there are, what we know for a fact is that there are more innocents than evils (if there weren't, the game would already be over).  So there's no question at all that we are more likely to kill an innocent than an evil.  And if we do, we cost ourselves a day of analysis (since the game will end a day sooner).  In this specific game, in this situation, it's not worth it

 

Think outside the box, people.

[Belal-Mafia]

Just going to say this again, in case anyone missed it:

 

[glow=red,2,300]We don't lose a lynch by going to night - we simply shift the lynch from today to the endgame (which benefits the innocents, not the mafia, since even if we end up random voting that day, we'll be picking from a smaller pool and therefore more likely to hit a mafioso)[/glow]

[Ishamael-Mafia]

 

Please explain again what makes this game different than any of the others and why this rule would not apply to every game? 

[Guest Semirhage-Mafia]

heh, and now it's Smei's turn to topple over the blocks^^

 

I say no more reveals. It is day 1 and the only people that benefit by any reveal are the evils.

 

I say that the only information we have is that Semi drew alot of attention to himself by acting really suspiciuosly and now we have a bad situation where he is either a false healer or a useless healer.

 

Semi is not a confirmed innocent.

 

Why does Semi know and trust Be'lal? How would he? And why does Semi reveal as healer, reveal his true identity, and drag Naeanne into the discussion?  Then Be'lal calls out Alys, Far, and Kivam on the Osan'gar role in the same way. It makes me think that they might have a role that demands that they mark their kill, or something like that, and they both seem to be throwing speculation out in a panic.  it is highly irregular to say the least and we don't know anything about this game yet. 

 

Why do Semi and Be'lal always talk to us like we can't see the forest for the trees?

 

I say we need to do our best to try and lynch an evil on day one. I would like to hear about what others have noticed.

 

I agree, no more reveals. They would be entirely necessary and even dangerous. unfortunately only the finder will know that I'm innocent till he/she finds 2 evils or w/e # of evils that you feel comfortable with a reveal. I am ok with you guys not being able to trust me entirely, but you will regret lynching me.

 

Ishy, I *always* act "really suspiciously", don't know whether you've played with me before, but I revealed who I am because I knew a lot of people would understand why I was so weird.

 

No I am not, I am ok with that. *IF* I am evil and *NOT* the healer only then could the finder even consider revealing. and because its day 2 it still might not be the best idea. Since I *AM* the healer, a finder reveal would be terrible because the murderers would have a 50/50 chance of killing the finder or myself. So like I said, I'm ok with your suspicious, if I'm alive by say day 3 and the finder never revealed me as guilty will you be willing to trust me?

 

I know be'lal because of what he said to me, either that or he read what the person I believe him to be said and then wrote that to trick me, i've considered them both and especially since what Be'lal said is different then what the other person said (Be'lal for the record said "see? I told you I was gonna end up lynching you Vemy". But Be'lal has also been playing like this person and I'd *like* to trust him. I admit your point about us losing information and a game of #s is making me consider my vote for a "no kill". My question to you is, who do you propose killing?

 

I revealed my role because you were gonna kill me, I revealed my identity because people were a little confused by me. I suppose some people need fear their reputations (Kivam, alys, etc) and some of us need our reputations (Me, Loki, Dsage) "Vemy is just being vemy" understand? I dragged naeann into this just to explain the oddity of "Hey, didn't semi say she was going to work soon? why is she still posting". At that point I had already decided to reveal my identity if necessary.

 

yeah, I can't answer for Be'lal and I assume he either already has or will

 

well, you know 1 thing about the game now^^

 

I'm the healer :P

 

 

 

2) Everyone else, please consider what happens if we have 6 finders, operating independently.  Also, consider what happens if I am a bomb.  Also, consider what happens if Ishamael is the equivalent of Talya's village idiot, tasked with screwing up the game for the innocents.  Also, consider what happens if aliens land tomorrow, making this game the last mafia game ever played.

 

[glow=red,2,300]You don't make decisions based on "possibilities" unless you have a reason to think the possibility is actual[/glow]

 

I'm sorry but in this your wrong actually Be'lal.

 

In retrospect I shouldn't have quoted barm before (I suppose quoting msn should be the same as quoting a pm. either way its inside information)

 

But basically barm said that when we find out what roles were in this game, we will be happy that we didn't know. then to my question of us having tons of roles he said his game will not be like kivam's Double blind, or at least to much. He will not be using a coin to decide the 75% guilt chance

 

and for the record, thats all of the information I have on this game that someone else wouldn't have. I originally didn't mention it because I'm sure barm wouldn't want me to have. But seeing as my attempt to forget the information failed, I should at least share it with you all. I have every believe that Ishy is correct in saying barm turned this game into a real nuthouse.

 

 

 

So: We don't know if there are going to be roles like the "assassin" who gets 1 chance to kill a mafia. or a "paranoid finder" who sees everyone as guilty (never heard of that one before, sounds lik it makes the game interesting).

 

But especially because of that fact about the assassins being able to do a single night kill I'm going to [glow=red,2,300]unvote[/glow] for now, and I'd like barm to also tell us whether we *can* even vote a no kill since we don't know that we can.

 

Also, guys? As an evil, my take on things is to try and kill the people who make you look the most guilty during the night and then in the morning go "they must have done it to frame me!" (which I need to think up a new way of doing night kills because the mafia trapped me in the werewolves game >.<)

 

another thing is as an evil, I'd think that rather then lead the charge to killing me like mesaana was, we should be looking at those people who quietly bandwagoned onto me. Because I know thats what I would have done. it gets the job done, and someone else does the dirty work and looks suspicious.

[Barmacral]

Yes, no lynch is an option. It always is.

 

Vote Count:

 

Semirhage (1): Demandred

Asmodean (1): Moridin

Rahvin (1): Halima

Be’lal (3): Moghedien, Mesaana, Ishamael

No Lynch (2): Be’lal, Graendal

Mesaana (1): Asmodean

[Belal-Mafia]

 

Please explain again what makes this game different than any of the others and why this rule would not apply to every game? 

 

I've explained it already, but one more time, with feeling:

 

The point of a lynch Day 1 is to gather information about voting patterns, so you can make a start of analyzing on Day 2.  The key piece of information, the one that allows you to draw other conclusions, is the coroner finder verdict on the lynchee; without knowing whether the target is guilty or innocent, you can draw no conclusions at all.  Even after the lynch, you don't have a tremendous amount of information to work with, since most Day 1 voting is random and most Day 1 votes are explainable with "well, we had to lynch someone".  But something is better than nothing (nothing is deadly), so lynching is a must, even though you will kill an innocent.  The other option is directing a finder to look at a particular player, but you don't want to overuse this, since it locks up the healer for the night and, if people think that a Day 1 lynch will stall right before the coup de grace on a regular basis, they will alter their voting patterns accordingly.

 

Now, take a look at this game.  We have a ton of votes piling onto Semi, who then reveals as healer (doubly wrong move if Vemy knew there would be no role reveal on coroner finder, since that would have kept the finder safe for a bit anyway).  Despite the healer reveal, a number of players continue to cheerlead for Semi's death - taking a huge risk for no reason (when the finder can tell us if Semi is innocent - by not revealing - or guilty - by revealing).  And the Finder absolutely has to view Semi tonight based on the claim anyway, since if Semi is innocent then the problem with directing a finder day 1 (requiring the healer to protect a specific target) is already in play: if semi is our innocent healer, she has to protect herself anyway.  And, if Semi is guilty, then our actual healer is free to protect someone else.

 

What does all of this add up to?  It means that we will get the same information by waiting until tomorrow to lynch Semi as we would by lynching her today - a guilty or innocent verdict - without taking the risk of lynching our healer.

 

And it also means that we've already gotten more information than we could typically expect from a Day 1 lynch without actually needing to kill an innocent player.  The added info we would get from doing a different lynch - say, lynching you, or me - just isn't worth the chance that the target is innocent (I know I am, I'm sure you'll say the same).  We've already gotten the benefit of a day 1 lynch without killing anybody; the minimal marginal value of any additional information isn't worth shortening our game by a day (and it should be clear from the numbers I posted that lynching an innocent today would shorten our game by a day, though we'd have the same number of lynches).

 

Look at it this way:

 

Your suggestion (lynch today) = X lynches, with 1 being semi-random (today's lynch, made without the benefit of knowing if any player is guilty or innocent) and X minus 1 being informed (i.e. the rest of the way, where we can draw conclusions based on known alignments). To put concrete numbers on it, if there are 4 evils, that means 4 informed lynches and one semi-random lynch

 

My suggestion (no lynch today) = X lynches, [glow=red,2,300]all of which are informed[/glow] - again, if there are 4 evils, that means 5 informed lynches, and no semi-random lynches.  (I say semi-random because while people are doing suspicious things, without the ability to cross reference their actions to known player alignments the vote is really just "gut feeling")

 

Why would we ever want to trade a lynch made with more information for a lynch made with less?  That's what lynching today would be.

[Ishamael-Mafia]

 

I would like to hear what everybody else thinks about this. Has Be'lal revolutionized mafia play, or is his mocking tone just a cover and his purpose to confuse?

[Belal-Mafia]

 

I would like to hear what everybody else thinks about this. Has Be'lal revolutionized mafia play, or is his mocking tone just a cover and his purpose to confuse?

 

Can't it be both?  ;)

 

Sorry if I'm coming across as mocking, I don't mean to be.

[Guest Semirhage-Mafia]

revolutionized? i doubt it. You could do this again in another game if someone ends up having to role reveal day 1 (other then the finder) in the future but thats hardly revolutionizing. Though I would like to deem this the "Be'lal stall" if you guys are ok with it^^

 

but i think he makes a good point, we can trade this lynch to another day when we will have more information.

 

The only thing is that like I said, we don;t know what roles are in this game, and to be honest I wouldn't put it past barm to give *every* single person in this game a role. Which i just had a scary thought combining the paranoid cop and the docter O.o. the "stupid doctor" who kills whoever he tries to heal O.o

 

I'm keeping my heal on myself if barm did have enough imagination to come up with that because i'd be useless otherwise but dang thats scary O.o

 

so like I said, its a toss up, and the only real thing ot fear is that Be'lal has information that the rest of us don;t about the game which he could plot around.

[Osangar-Mafia]

Yay, I've been gone since around page 6, and what do my wondering eyes see? Nothing but a couple lousy alt reveals, and a possible Healer reveal. Boo.

 

The fact is, Be'lal has the right of it. The liklihood that we are going to nab mafia on the first try is slim to none. What does this mean? For those of you who see Kivam's apt writing skills and automatically shut your eyes from the blinding truth of it--we help the evils by killing yet another innocent (or even worse, our Finder or other roled player). Then we are two down, as opposed to only one. SERIOUSLY. Even if Be'lal is evil (and if he is, then we will easily find out by his remaining alive most of the game, instead of being insta-killed by the scaredy-cat mafia--OR by the Finder's checking him up night 2 after Semi is checked night 1), the notion still holds merit. We aren't going to get mafia this first time around, and because of you people being careless with the random voting, we've already most likely had our Healer revealed. Good going, guys.  ::)

 

STOP trying to figure out who the alts are. It's only screwing you up. Look at the words, not the people behind them. Anyone here can play the identity theft game, and sitting around playing scooby doo about who is who will get us nowhere. We are here to find Mafia. Figuring out that Vemy is Vemy has nothing to do with the game (since the roles were RANDOMLY assigned to the alts, which were RANDOMLY assigned to the players), and how Vemy played previous games has nothing to do with how this game is being played, since there are completely different elements and themes going on here.

 

I vote [glow=red,2,300]NoKill[/glow]

 

All of you who are sitting around voting for Semi, and saying that Be'lal is talking complete garbage are only shooting yourselves in the foot, since the Finder will have the opportunity to check up on this information, and reveal IF AND ONLY IF they get a guilty reading.

[Graendal-Mafia]

hmm, I agree with Osan'gar on the Alt things..  :P

 

still, I dont really get the logic that the Finder should reveal. I dont see why any roled player should reveal unless they have to. we really have lost our healer now (if Semi is the healer that is). sure we still have the vote, but as a Healer, she is useless. let's just hope we have another person that can heal or something like that around here. so, if I can get an explanation on why the Finder should reveal,

[Graendal-Mafia]

haha, I posted before I had finished writing...

 

hmmmmm, I dont really have anything more to say. Just that I want to know why the Finder should reveal who they are..

[Osangar-Mafia]

The Finder reveals when they have successfully found a member of the Mafia. OR I suppose they could just randomly accuse someone, and have seventeen other people ask why they suspected that person for no reason whatsoever??? In the end, they are most likely going to have to reveal anyway, or risk people ganging up on them for a random vote. Or they could keep quiet and hope that someone else starts a vote on the person they viewed as Mafia that night...but then that also brings up a host of risk.

 

Those are the basic reasons why. No offense to anyone, but this is not a newbie mafia game. We should all have a grasp on the basic why's and how's of Mafia.  :-\

[Belal-Mafia]

More, if a finder doesn't reveal after getting a guilty verdict, and then is nightkilled later, the information is lost.

[Osangar-Mafia]

Yes, that too.  ;)

[Graendal-Mafia]

sorry, I didnt make myself clear there. I know that a finder should reveal him/herself i they find an evil player, what I asked is why the Finder should reveal before they have found someone.

 

I dont really look at myself as a newbie to the game. I guess I just didn't word my question properly.

[Osangar-Mafia]

As far as I have read, nobody anywhere at any time has at all once said that the Finder should reveal before they have found a guilty reading.

[Graendal-Mafia]

oh.. you sure? i'm sure I read it somewhere. but if no one said it, I guess I just mistook a sentence  ???

 

 

[Graendal-Mafia]

hm, I cant even come up with the correct words anymore.. I ment misunderstood, not mistook  ???

[Guest Moghedien-Mafia]

All I can hear in my head is Sira saying that you never go to night unless under special circumstances...is this one of them I don't know.

 

Lucky for you. All I keep thinking is Kivam gambit, Kivam gambit. We cannot ever, ever, ever forget that he is playing with us, and he is ever so much more devious than Sirayn. She's good, but he pulled the wool over her eyes so easily. This is why I will not remove my vote until we are certain about where to move from here. I would rather think than willing fall into a ploy that will end with me dying.

Generally, the finder should not reveal until they are about to die or have definate guilt established for at least one, but preferably two players. Yes, they may die with the knowledge, but if there are four and we have lost our healer, they are done for anyway. Once the finder is out, his/her time is limited at best. We'd rather have two guilty parties than a single. A lot of different variables change what to do and how. This is all a decision the finder has to make.

 

Be'lal, are you trying to get killed? I mean, you are quite free with your identity. Don't kill him. I don't want to give out information that is his alone to reveal, but don't kill him. Please.

 

Barm is running a game that promises to follow in Kivam's footsteps. Don't let this be a factor in your logic. Play with what you know.

 

[glow=red,2,300]UNVOTE[/glow] [glow=red,2,300]NO KILL[/glow]

 

If we go straight to night then we won't get any information out of a lynch from today to be able to see if there is any connection to night kill.

 

We will have information from today to match with information that will be revealed from the night actions. Without losing the inevitable innocent.

 

No more walls of text, please? Pretty please? I'll rip my dress again if you will stop.

[Belal-Mafia]

Be'lal, are you trying to get killed? I mean, you are quite free with your identity. Don't kill him. I don't want to give out information that is his alone to reveal, but don't kill him. Please.

 

Yeah, not really trying to get killed (was hoping to last a little bit), but if its the difference between losing a day for us or not, then its worth it.  Like I said, I'm roleless this time around, so my loss isn't all that big of a deal (this game has several good analyst types in it).  In fact, I'd rather go down than our finder, or healer, or vigilante, or whatever else Barm may have cooked up for us.  Also, I'll give my suspect list/analysis when we go to night, so if they kill me, you should be able to tease out some decent information from it, and innocents are always more likely to win when we get info from nightkills than when we don't

[Osangar-Mafia]

And just a little off topic, the email icon under my avvie is not one I have any access to, as I did not create it. Must have been one created for the Double Blind, or for some other reason I do not know about.

 

Graendal--if you can quote it, then I'll buy it...but I read through the threads pretty carefully and I didn't see anyone say anything like that...obviously there is a margin for error...but I'm pretty confident in my thread reading abilities. If you (or anyone else who is sure they saw that written) can provide the quote, then I'll stand corrected.  8)

 

All I keep thinking is Kivam gambit, Kivam gambit. We cannot ever, ever, ever forget that he is playing with us, and he is ever so much more devious than Sirayn. She's good, but he pulled the wool over her eyes so easily. This is why I will not remove my vote until we are certain about where to move from here. I would rather think than willing fall into a ploy that will end with me dying.

 

This is extremely unfair to Kivam. The last game he was in he was a roleless innocent. Are you going to sit there and tell me that he had some ulterior motive beyond trying to win the game? It's ridiculous. You need to stop associating people with past games. Every game is different. Sure, he is a great player of the game, but that doesn't make him evil. 

 

Ultimately, I don't know if Be'lal is evil or not. I'm saying that at this moment, it doesn't matter. It makes sense that we do a no kill this night. We've learned as much as we are going to learn. We need to give the Finder a chance to learn something too. The only thing we are really going to learn by lynching an innocent (because it is almost entirely likely that we will) is that I rock (Be'lal can rock too I guess, since it was his original idea). Why? Because I will be singing the happy "I told you so" song over and over again. The Finder can view Semi. If he turns out guilty, we'll know. If he turns out innocent, we won't hear anything. This is good. This will tell us things.  :P 

 

Oh, and for those with little sense of humor, I was totally joking about the whole I rock part. I mean, I will sing the I told you so song...but not over and over again. ;)  :P  :-*

 

 

[Guest Semirhage-Mafia]

Hmm I think I’ll revote [glow=red,2,300]no kill[/glow]

 

It’s dangerous and I have even more reason to think its dangerous now after moggy’s post (what information does he have to reveal? Not a role or she wouldn’t have said anything and he’s admittedly roleless)

 

We also don’t know that Osan’gar and Be’lal are on the murderers and they are safe from the “retribution” of being made suspicious after I’m confirmed as innocent via no one claiming I’m evil. After all their plan *is* that those who voted me might be evil (and its sound reasoning, just saying there is another layer)

 

But for now it’s the best plan we have and we should remember that night kills bring information to  the table as well

 

 

Vote Count:

 

Semirhage (1): Demandred

Asmodean (1): Moridin

Rahvin (1): Halima

Be’lal (2): Mesaana, Ishamael

No Lynch (5): Be’lal, Graendal, Osan’gar, Moghedien, Semirhage

Mesaana (1): Asmodean

 

its 10 votes to decide yes? the 6 who have yet to vote are:

Aran'gar

Lanfear

Balthemal

Aginor

Cyndane

Sammael

Rahvin

[Graendal-Mafia]

 

Graendal--if you can quote it, then I'll buy it...but I read through the threads pretty carefully and I didn't see anyone say anything like that...obviously there is a margin for error...but I'm pretty confident in my thread reading abilities. If you (or anyone else who is sure they saw that written) can provide the quote, then I'll stand corrected.  8)

 

 

I already said that I misunderstood one of the post written earlier today. I can only blame it on the friggin walls of text!! ><  :P  :-*

 

 

[Guest Halima-Mafia]

Yeah I didn't read that anywhere either Graendal.

 

I've reread again and I have some suspicions on people.  I will try to post a general review of what I think of people's actions soon.  Well that is if I can get enough free time (those things take so long!).

 

I like math and the numbers don't lie.  I agree with Be'lal we should wait to lynch.  Tomorrow we will know if Semi is evil or innocent.  The finder can reveal tomorrow IF Semi is guilty otherwise Semi will be innocent WITH NO FINDER REVEAL.  The night kill will give us some added info as well.

 

[glow=red,2,300]No Kill[/glow]