Game Over - Insane Mafia Game. Page 94

[Balthamel-Mafia]

OK, fine...

 

[glow=red,2,300]unvote[/glow]

[Lanfear-Mafia]

Wow, so much happens when I'm away.  I can sort of see the logic of a No kill, although I'm not sure I'd like to lose the only chance we have - even if it is a small one - to lynch a mafia.  I'm going to read through what's happened and try to make up my mind.

[Ishamael-Mafia]

There are some things that ping my radar right now:

 

Be'lal was the first to vote for Semi, then does not post for 16 pages. On his next posts, he needlessly speculates on the identity of Osan'gar, jokes about Moggy, then encourages the "real healer" to reveal. Then he begins his case for a no kill vote, and counters the usual logic against it.

 

I say It is considered pointless to miss a chance to lynch an evil, or at least narrow down the field, because mafia games are won and lost by numbers. A no kill vote only gives the evil team an advatage.

 

Up to this point, Be'lal "randomly" voted Semi (could be a setup?), then agreed with and encouraged the healer to reveal, Then tried to push a no kill vote.  Then he drags the finder into the game by asking them to look at Semi, and then reveal only if he is guilty. He tops it off with a suspect list of people who called Semi out for acting very strangely when Semi was actinng very strangely.

 

I say no more reveals. It is day 1 and the only people that benefit by any reveal are the evils.

 

I say that the only information we have is that Semi drew alot of attention to himself by acting really suspiciuosly and now we have a bad situation where he is either a false healer or a useless healer.

 

Semi is not a confirmed innocent.

 

Why does Semi know and trust Be'lal?  How would he? And why does Semi reveal as healer, reveal his true identity, and drag Naeanne into the discussion?  Then Be'lal calls out Alys, Far, and Kivam on the Osan'gar role in the same way. It makes me think that they might have a role that demands that they mark their kill, or something like that, and they both seem to be throwing speculation out in a panic.  it is highly irregular to say the least and we don't know anything about this game yet. 

 

Why do Semi and Be'lal always talk to us like we can't see the forest for the trees?

 

I say we need to do our best to try and lynch an evil on day one. I would like to hear about what others have noticed.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Guest Moridin-Mafia]

Ishy, way to draw attention to something that might otherwise have passed unnoticed. I was almost going to admonish Bel'al when I first saw that but the discussion had moved on so I decided to leave sleeping dogs lie and just slipped a general comment in. Now it's all over the thread again, probably mere hours away from night phase. Nice. That was just soo helpful. Why not add a link while you're at it?

 

Can anyone provide me with a quote of Bel'al encouraging the healer to reveal? That might have been his earlier policy, I don't remember, but the current proposal centres on the real healer staying hidden, which I approve of.

 

However, I'm not going to vote to go to night.

[Ishamael-Mafia]

messaana, what part of this are you not getting? I can heal myself during the night, they can't kill me during the night unless they can overide my heal some how. so *no* they can't kill your "real healer" (me) tonight because I will be healign myself and in fact have already turned in my night action to barm

 

You are either evil, or healer.

 

If you're healer, you protect yourself, nothing happens

 

If you're evil, and the real healer shows up, you'll know who to kill tonight.

 

I think I know who you are, and don't really believe you don't get this. I'm véry véry tempted to believe the bandwagon got an evil this time. I'm gonna wait for Barm for the info Ishy asked, but if it doesn't satisfy me, you got my vote.

 

Btw: REAL HEALER, IF YOU'RE NOT SEMIRHAGE, DO NOT REVEAL!!!

 

If our "real healer" reveals, they can night protect themselves to

 

At the very bottom Moridin, "if our "real healer" reveals, they can night protect themselves to".

 

We don't know if the healer can self protect, but we can be fairly certain that they can't protect two people at once. This means that the finder can't ever reveal and expect any protection. I would say that this is a very bad thing to happen on day one, but I am leaning towards it all being a botched attempt to draw the healer and the finder out. It's just to much for day one, no? 

[Guest Mesaana-Mafia]

Be'lal, do you really believe the real mafia would LEAD the charge against an real-healer Semi?

And no kill? That never works.

 

Ishy: Mesaana the Hysterical. I gave all possibilities as to which roles Semi could have, and came to the conclusion that, in the case of Semi=Vemy (which I knew quite sure the instant he named Naeann), the evil Semi was most likely. And I was online a lot yesterday, so I reacted to everything. Does this make me hysterical?

 

Be'lal:

 

Correct - Mesaana was either operating on false info about the healer (why would they die that night?) or deliberately spreading it; either way, its worth pointing out that the info was false.

 

What are you talking about?

 

And I also don't get why we shouldn't lynch someone today?

 

And seeing you encouraged the real healer to reveal, I'll vote [glow=red,2,300]Be'lal[/glow].

[Guest Rahvin-Mafia]

The biggest problem I have going to night without a lynch is if Be'lal is evil. This would be a very useful thing to do for them, more useful than to us innocents.

 

Ican see how some of his arguments are quite sound, but my gut tells me this is not a good idea. All I can hear in my head is Sira saying that you never go to night unless under special circumstances...is this one of them I don't know.

 

At the moment I [glow=red,2,300]Unvote[/glow], It was only on Moggie because she was being a drama queen about her dress.

 

What worries me is that if we have no role reveal we will have no idea if we get healer/finder/symp and any other role that will come up innocent. This makes it a perfect place for counter claims, this is effect can put the role of finder also in jeapody. We could end up losing time working out who is the real one, rather then trying to catch evils (though we may catch an evil eventually) it may take longer to get there, and time isn't always on out side.

 

I don't have an answer to this, and if this is a nuthouse then there could be other things going on that we don't know about. If that is the case is going to night such a good thing.

 

Hope this makes sense.

 

Oh Be'lal, Football is played with a round shaped ball and the feet are used to kick it (hence the name) ;), So I have no idea what you were trying to say by the example you gave. ;D

[Belal-Mafia]

TO be honest, there may be some reasoning behind you approach, but look at it from the mafia POV.

 

They get a free kill, and they now know that they have the doctor tied up.

 

This point is irrelevant.  If Semi is our healer, then they get a free kill anyway.  The only real question is if we kill another innocent for them.

 

Besides even if we don't kill semy and the cop finds her guilty, I still don't think the cop should come out as the mafia will then know who our cop is.

 

Of course the cop should reveal - the cop's job is to come forward if they get a guilty, especially when: 1) the healer is still a secret (it would be different if the healer was in the open, since then the cop would die immediately, but if Semi is guilty then the healer is still secret) and 2) where the information we get from a guilty vote goes beyond just the name of 1 guilty player - we have a lot of info to draw on, thanks to today.

 

BTW Semy is NOT a confirmed innocent, atleast not in my book.

 

No kidding?

 

Simply put lynching is the townies only weapon, but not using we are essentially waling targets as in a battle between a mafia who will always lynch an innocent, and a cop will rarely find a mafia, then scum will usually win, espically if in the 4/5 days it takes to whittle down the group they take out the doctor.

 

Just because you have a weapon doesn't mean you should always use it.  Lynching Day 1 is like killing termites with a blow torch: it may be necessary when you have no other options, but it's far from ideal.

Think about, even if the cop is perfect it will take atleast 3/4 nights to find all the mafia, realistically it will take 7/8, in which case aorund 7 innocents will of died, one of them could will be the doctor and the second that happens its game over for the townies.

 

Who's sitting around waiting for the cop? Once tomorrow comes, we'll have enough info to lynch intelligently, rather than randomly.

 

That is why the cop should not reveal.

 

Sorry, but that's so ridiculously wrong that you've just jumped way up on my suspect list.

 

Just because you have a good analysis doesn't mean your not scum. Look at the last (-mafia) game when the best leaders tuened out to be scum!

 

sure, having a good analysis doesn't mean I'm a confirmed innocent.  [glow=red,2,300]But unless there's a problem with the analysis, then it makes sense to follow it, whether I'm innocent or guilty.[/glow]

 

 

Look at it from a maifa POV>

 

We know who the doc is, the cop will likely just confirm her innocence, and we kill an innocent!

 

Win win win...

 

No, the win/win for the mafia is if we randomly lynch today and kill an extra innocent for them without getting much benefit from it.  thats doing their work for them

[Belal-Mafia]

There are some things that ping my radar right now:

 

Be'lal was the first to vote for Semi, then does not post for 16 pages. On his next posts, he needlessly speculates on the identity of Osan'gar, jokes about Moggy, then encourages the "real healer" to reveal. Then he begins his case for a no kill vote, and counters the usual logic against it.

 

If you know who I am, you know exactly why I disappeared for 16 pages, and why I threw out a vote very early.  As for the Osan'gar speculation - lets just say I have my reasons.

 

I'm also getting tired of this "I encouraged the healer to reveal" line.  All I did was point out that Mesaana was wrong.  That's it.

 

The healer revealing gets us nothing when we can just Finder Semi instead, especially since we wouldn't know who to trust on a counterclaim anyway.

 

Also, please note that I was the first person to suggest findering Semi and using a non-reveal as confirmation of innocence.

 

I say It is considered pointless to miss a chance to lynch an evil, or at least narrow down the field, because mafia games are won and lost by numbers. A no kill vote only gives the evil team an advatage.

 

And I say that [glow=red,2,300]you obviously aren't thinking[/glow] - or (apparently) reading.  I've already explained how we[glow=red,2,300]do not lose a chance to lynch[/glow]; essentially, what we are doing is trading a chance to lynch on Day 1 for a chance to lynch on Day 6 (or whatever day the endgame will come).  We get the [glow=red,2,300]same number of lynches[/glow] either way.  What we get by going with my plan is the ability to lynch with logic each of those times.  What we get with yours is the ability to lynch without logic once.  Which do you think makes it more likely that we win?

 

[glow=red,2,300]Up to this point, Be'lal "randomly" voted Semi (could be a setup?), then agreed with and encouraged the healer to reveal, Then tried to push a no kill vote.  Then he drags the finder into the game by asking them to look at Semi, and then reveal only if he is guilty. He tops it off with a suspect list of people who called Semi out for acting very strangely when Semi was actinng very strangely. [/glow]

 

If you don't understand why a finder should investigate Semi, you might be a redneck.  ;D

 

Seriously, random lynching our healer would be bad.  Very very bad.  So we're better off [glow=red,2,300]knowing[/glow] the finder is investigating Semi and taking a non reveal as confirmation of innocence.

 

And why shouldn't the finder reveal if Semi is guilty???

 

as for the suspect list - that's only if 3Semi is innocent.  Surely you understand why, if Semi is our healer, the people saying "lynch Semi" become automatic suspects.

 

 

I say no more reveals. It is day 1 and the only people that benefit by any reveal are the evils.

 

I say that the only information we have is that Semi drew alot of attention to himself by acting really suspiciuosly and now we have a bad situation where he is either a false healer or a useless healer.

 

Semi is not a confirmed innocent.

 

Of course Semi is not a confirmed innocent - but if the finder investigates and doesn't reveal, then Semi becomes a confirmed innocent, and the Finder should not reveal on their first guilty (since they'll be killed immediately).

 

[glow=red,2,300]If Semi is guilty, why should the Finder not reveal???[/glow]

 

Why does Semi know and trust Be'lal?  How would he?

 

Because it isn't hard to figure out who I am if you've played with me before, and Vemy has this reaction to me every time  ;D

 

Why do Semi and Be'lal always talk to us like we can't see the forest for the trees?

 

I don't know about Vemy - but this post makes me think you actually can't see the forest for the trees.

 

I say we need to do our best to try and lynch an evil on day one. I would like to hear about what others have noticed.

 

Anyone who lynches Day 1 to try and kill mafia, rather than to gather information, doesn't understand the game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Belal-Mafia]

Be'lal:

 

Correct - Mesaana was either operating on false info about the healer (why would they die that night?) or deliberately spreading it; either way, its worth pointing out that the info was false.

 

What are you talking about?

 

And I also don't get why we shouldn't lynch someone today?

 

And seeing you encouraged the real healer to reveal, I'll vote [glow=red,2,300]Be'lal[/glow].

 

1)  You said "if the real healer reveals, they'll get nightkilled."  That's false - the healer can self protect, even if it isn't Semi.  Unless this is a wacky variation on the healer role, but we have no reason to think it is.

 

2) We shouldn't lynch someone today because it does us no good.  WE HAVE NO INFORMATION TODAY, any lynch would be very nearly random, since the primary factor we are reacting to - Semi's actions - haven't been definitively classified guilty or innocent yet.  TOMORROW, WE WILL HAVE THAT INFORMATION, based on the finder reveal/non-reveal.

 

The biggest problem I have going to night without a lynch is if Be'lal is evil. This would be a very useful thing to do for them, more useful than to us innocents.

 

Really?  Why?  Explain why a no-kill is useful to the Mafia in this game situation, where we already have enough info to lynch intelligently tomorrow.

 

What worries me is that if we have no role reveal we will have no idea if we get healer/finder/symp and any other role that will come up innocent. This makes it a perfect place for counter claims, this is effect can put the role of finder also in jeapody. We could end up losing time working out who is the real one, rather then trying to catch evils (though we may catch an evil eventually) it may take longer to get there, and time isn't always on out side.

 

If a symp false-claims Semi guilty, the finder should be quiet, we lynch Semi and nail the symp the next day (her innocent coroner-finder tells us it was a false claim).  If a symp false-claims Semi innocent, the finder should reveal, we lynch Semi, and her guilty coroner-finder gets the symp lynched the next day.  (the finder can reveal on a false innocent claim, because if Semi is guilty then the innocent healer will still be around to protect the innocent finder; on a false guilty claim, since lynching Semi will be the test the healer will be dead, so the finder CANNOT reveal)

[Ishamael-Mafia]

 

 

Sorry Be'lal, your reasoning and numbers are wrong. There is no such thing as a "free night" where a no kill vote is an option. There is no good circumstance in which the healer, finder, or both reveal in the first day or two. You are pushing to hard for this. Your insults and angry posts this early in the game don't evn make sense.

 

[glow=red,2,300]Be'lal[/glow]

 

Everybody else, please consider what happens if there are multiple teams like in the double blind. Be'lal's response make me suspect that this could possibly be the case. I also suspect that Barm might have a system set up for bonus points now that the score board is up and it would make sense if two teams competed for points based on getting the healer and the finder. These are just thoeries, but there seems to be little chance that Barm is running a straight forward game.

[Ishamael-Mafia]

 

Be'lal, you are falling apart at this point.

 

[glow=red,2,300]1)  You said "if the real healer reveals, they'll get nightkilled."  That's false - the healer can self protect, even if it isn't Semi.  Unless this is a wacky variation on the healer role, but we have no reason to think it is.

 

2) We shouldn't lynch someone today because it does us no good.  WE HAVE NO INFORMATION TODAY, any lynch would be very nearly random, since the primary factor we are reacting to - Semi's actions - haven't been definitively classified guilty or innocent yet.  TOMORROW, WE WILL HAVE THAT INFORMATION, based on the finder reveal/non-reveal.[/glow]

 

1) How can you know what the rules the healer is palying by are unless you are the healer?

 

2) You have gone on and on about how much information we have. So much that we don't need a lynch and should just move to night. Now we don't have any information? Which is it?

 

 

[Ishamael-Mafia]

 

You are also editing and deleting posts. Not good. (the above glowed text is a qoute from Be'lals deleted post.

 

Barm, are we allowed to edit and delete posts?

[Guest Sammael-Mafia]

Vote Count:

 

Semirhage(1): Demandred

Asmodean(1): MorIdin

Rahvin(1): Halima

Mesaana(1): Asmodean

Be'lal(3): Moghedien, Mesaana, Ishamael

No Kill(3): Be'lal, Semirhage, Graendal

 

 

 

[Guest Sammael-Mafia]

A lot happened since I was on yesterday. Not sure how I feel about a no kill. If we go straight to night then we won't get any information out of a lynch from today to be able to see if there is any connection to night kill. And there is always the chance we could get lucky and lynch a Mafia member today.

[Guest Cyndane-Mafia]

I'm with you on this, Sammy.  I don't think I like the no kill idea.

[Belal-Mafia]

 

Be'lal, you are falling apart at this point.

 

[glow=red,2,300]1)  You said "if the real healer reveals, they'll get nightkilled."  That's false - the healer can self protect, even if it isn't Semi.  Unless this is a wacky variation on the healer role, but we have no reason to think it is.

 

2) We shouldn't lynch someone today because it does us no good.  WE HAVE NO INFORMATION TODAY, any lynch would be very nearly random, since the primary factor we are reacting to - Semi's actions - haven't been definitively classified guilty or innocent yet.  TOMORROW, WE WILL HAVE THAT INFORMATION, based on the finder reveal/non-reveal.[/glow]

 

1) How can you know what the rules the healer is palying by are unless you are the healer?

 

I can't.  But its basic logic that you don't assume that the rules are wacky unless there's a reason to.

 

Lets put it this way: How do you know the healer isn't also bulletproof? How do we know there aren't 3 healers?  How do we know we don't have a paranoid finder, who will get a guilty result for everyone they look at, whether they are guilty or not?  How do we know there aren't 7 evils?

 

We don't know any of those things, but we can assume that they are all false, since [glow=red,2,300]there's no reason to assume its true.[/glow] The same thing for a healer's ability to heal themselves; unless there's a reason to believe otherwise, the [glow=red,2,300]only[/glow] sensible thing to do is to assume the healer can heal themselves.

 

2) You have gone on and on about how much information we have. So much that we don't need a lynch and should just move to night. Now we don't have any information? Which is it?

 

You aren't paying attention:

 

1) All of the information we will have tomorrow is tied to Semi's status as innocent or guilty

 

2) We don't know whether she's innocent or guilty today.

 

3) We will know tomorrow.

 

4) Therefore, [glow=red,2,300]today[/glow] we don't have enough information to make an intelligent decision.  [glow=red,2,300]Tomorrow[/glow], we will have enough info.  The logic isn't all that hard to follow.

 

[Belal-Mafia]

 

You are also editing and deleting posts. Not good. (the above glowed text is a qoute from Be'lals deleted post.

 

Barm, are we allowed to edit and delete posts?

 

No, we aren't - and no, I didn't.  Not sure what computer glitch you're having, but I didn't edit the post, and as far as I can see its still on the thread.  Anyone else not see that post anymore?

[Belal-Mafia]

 

Sorry Be'lal, your reasoning and numbers are wrong. There is no such thing as a "free night" where a no kill vote is an option. There is no good circumstance in which the healer, finder, or both reveal in the first day or two. You are pushing to hard for this. Your insults and angry posts this early in the game don't evn make sense.

 

Interesting.  I've posted logic and a numbers analysis to back my point up.  You posted "you are wrong".

 

Well, if I'm wrong, tell me how. Where are the numbers wrong?  If you see a hole in my logic, point it out - shouldn't be too hard, since you apparently have already reached the conclusion.  Do that, and I'll agree with you.  Until then, posting "you're wrong, because I say so" only makes you look evil, not me.

 

Same goes for the finder reveal.  Obviously, both finder and healer shouldn't reveal together.  In fact, the healer should [glow=red,2,300]never[/glow] reveal.  But if the healer hasn't revealed, why shouldn't the finder???  If the finder has a guilty verdict, they need to say so before they get random nightkilled.  Also, if the healer has not revealed, the healer can now protect the finder, instead of randomly choosing a name that might be evil.  (Yes, the mafia doesn't have to worry about the possibility of a random healer block, but the mafia [glow=red,2,300]never[/glow] worries about that - it can't be prevented, and if it happens it happens.  I know I didn't care about it when I was Mafia in the Illuminators game)

 

On the other hand, if Semi is innocent, our finder needs to stay hidden until they have at least two guilty names for us, since they will probably be killed one or two nights after they reveal.

 

 

Everybody else, please consider what happens if there are multiple teams like in the double blind. Be'lal's response make me suspect that this could possibly be the case. I also suspect that Barm might have a system set up for bonus points now that the score board is up and it would make sense if two teams competed for points based on getting the healer and the finder. These are just thoeries, but there seems to be little chance that Barm is running a straight forward game.

 

1) There weren't multiple teams in the Double Blind (unless you want to count Sirayn as her own team)

 

2) Everyone else, please consider what happens if we have 6 finders, operating independently.  Also, consider what happens if I am a bomb.  Also, consider what happens if Ishamael is the equivalent of Talya's village idiot, tasked with screwing up the game for the innocents.  Also, consider what happens if aliens land tomorrow, making this game the last mafia game ever played.

 

[glow=red,2,300]You don't make decisions based on "possibilities" unless you have a reason to think the possibility is actual[/glow]

 

Ishy, right now you are throwing out random guesswork based on nothing more than possibilities, and you are attacking me for acting strangely when I've backed up every point with logic that you (apparently) can't find a flaw with?  ???

 

Seriously, if there's a logical problem with my posts, point it out.  If not, then listen to me.

[Ishamael-Mafia]

The post is back up now. I'm not sure what happened.

 

My vote stays just because Be'lal is the most suspicious to me. Semi is second. I don't have time to go point for point right now but I laughed when I saw this line:

 

"I can't. But it's basic logic that you don't assume that the rules are wacky unless there is a reason to."

 

Like in a game called the nuthouse?

[Belal-Mafia]

A lot happened since I was on yesterday. Not sure how I feel about a no kill. If we go straight to night then we won't get any information out of a lynch from today to be able to see if there is any connection to night kill. And there is always the chance we could get lucky and lynch a Mafia member today.

 

1) What information do we gain from a lynch today?  Think it through - we get a little bit, but not much.  So the question becomes, do we really need that little bit more than we need an extra innocent player?

 

2) There is almost no chance we get lucky and lynch a mafia member.  We have probably 7:2 odds of killing an innocent (assuming the most likely 14-4 split).  You really want to bet on 7:2 odds?  I don't. We are 3.5 times more likely to kill an innocent than a mafia member; if "the chance of getting lucky" weighs at all, it weighs AGAINST lynching.

[Belal-Mafia]

The post is back up now. I'm not sure what happened.

 

My vote stays just because Be'lal is the most suspicious to me. Semi is second. I don't have time to go point for point right now

 

Fair enough - so why doesn't everyone just chill out until Ishy has time to go point for point.  Give him 12 hrs (or more, if he says he needs it).  If he hasn't done it by then, we can safely assume that its because he doesn't HAVE a point by point refutation to make.  Pay particular attention to the numbers - he said I was wrong, it should be pretty easy to point out how if I was.

 

 

but I laughed when I saw this line:

 

"I can't. But it's basic logic that you don't assume that the rules are wacky unless there is a reason to."

 

Like in a game called the nuthouse?

 

Heh - fair point.  But unless you know [glow=red,2,300]how[/glow] the game is wacky, you can't just throw out random variations and act as though those are ACTUALLY in play - you'll tie yourself in knots doing that (the Double Blind folks did that to themselves, btw)

[Ishamael-Mafia]

 

The numbers are wrong because you assume 4 evils. As you pointed out, we don't have any information yet. So we don't know how many evils there might be, and we don't know anything about roles yet (there were two finders in the double blind, one of whom was Barm, so we know that the idea of it exists). To many unknowns to waste a day on a no-kill.

 

So unless you know how many evils there are, your numbers and speculation mean nothing, because "you can't throw out random variations and act as though those are ACTUALLY in play". 

 

Back to square one and trying to decide if anyone is acting like Mafia. I wonder.

[Guest Sammael-Mafia]

A lot happened since I was on yesterday. Not sure how I feel about a no kill. If we go straight to night then we won't get any information out of a lynch from today to be able to see if there is any connection to night kill. And there is always the chance we could get lucky and lynch a Mafia member today.

 

1) What information do we gain from a lynch today?  Think it through - we get a little bit, but not much.  So the question becomes, do we really need that little bit more than we need an extra innocent player?

 

2) There is almost no chance we get lucky and lynch a mafia member.  We have probably 7:2 odds of killing an innocent (assuming the most likely 14-4 split).  You really want to bet on 7:2 odds?  I don't. We are 3.5 times more likely to kill an innocent than a mafia member; if "the chance of getting lucky" weighs at all, it weighs AGAINST lynching.

 

1. Well from a day one lynch you can start to put together voting patterns and see how people react to the voting. A lot of the way I try to figure things out is from the reactions of people being voted for or reasonings for voting. At the moment there are way more than normal posts for day one so we do have a lot to go on, but then alot of people have been quiet. From the posts so far we might actually be able to pick out someone who is acting as though they are in the mafia which is why we have a good chance of lynching one today instead of going just to a night kill.

 

2. as for you odds, like Ishamael said we can't really assume anything about roles since we have no information on them. And we are in a Nuthouse so as far as I can see anything can and most likely will go.

[Belal-Mafia]

 

The numbers are wrong because you assume 4 evils. As you pointed out, we don't have any information yet. So we don't know how many evils there might be, and we don't know anything about roles yet (there were two finders in the double blind, one of whom was Barm, so we know that the idea of it exists). To many unknowns to waste a day on a no-kill.

 

So unless you know how many evils there are, your numbers and speculation mean nothing, because "you can't throw out random variations and act as though those are ACTUALLY in play". 

 

Back to square one and trying to decide if anyone is acting like Mafia. I wonder.

 

The numbers work the same no matter how many Mafia there are:

 

5 Mafia:

(lynch every day)

Day 1 13/5

Day 2 11/5

Day 3 9/5

Day 4 7/5 (endgame)

 

= 4 lynches before game over.

 

(skip day 1 lynch)

 

Day 1 13/5

Day 2 12/5

Day 3 10/5

Day 4 8/5

Day 5 6/5 (endgame)

 

= 4 lynches before game over

 

[glow=red,2,300]We get the same number of lynches if we skip day 1 or not[/glow]

 

with 3 Mafia

 

Day 1 15/3

Day 2 13/3

Day 3 11/3

Day 4 9/3

Day 5 7/3

Day 6 5/3 (endgame)

 

= 6 lynches before game over

 

Day 1 15/3

Day 2 14/3

Day 3 12/3

Day 4 10/3

Day 5 8/3

Day 6 6/3

Day 7 4/3 (endgame)

 

= 6 lynches before game over

 

[glow=red,2,300]We get the same number of lynches if we skip day 1 or not[/glow]

 

The numbers work no matter how many mafia there are, from 1 to 8 (the maximum number, since 9 mafioso would mean they already won).

 

We don't lose a lynch by going to night - we simply shift the lynch from today to the endgame (which benefits the innocents, not the mafia, since even if we end up random voting that day, we'll be picking from a smaller pool and therefore more likely to hit a mafioso)