Game Over - Insane Mafia Game. Page 94

[Belal-Mafia]

Moo. Baa. lalala  ???

 

We are supposed to be crazy, right? :P

 

No no, I say - that isn't right.

 

FYI, from reading to my kid cousins Osan'gar's quote is from a children's book.  That means one of our gars has kids, so they're probably Alys, FDM, or Kivam.  Those are some pretty useful players for us if they're innocent

[Belal-Mafia]

*pounces on [glow=red,2,300]Be'lal[/glow]*

 

Moghedien doesn't pounce.

 

Barm, she's out of character!  >:(

[Belal-Mafia]

messaana, what part of this are you not getting? I can heal myself during the night, they can't kill me during the night unless they can overide my heal some how. so *no* they can't kill your "real healer" (me) tonight because I will be healign myself and in fact have already turned in my night action to barm

 

You are either evil, or healer.

 

If you're healer, you protect yourself, nothing happens

 

If you're evil, and the real healer shows up, you'll know who to kill tonight.

 

I think I know who you are, and don't really believe you don't get this. I'm véry véry tempted to believe the bandwagon got an evil this time. I'm gonna wait for Barm for the info Ishy asked, but if it doesn't satisfy me, you got my vote.

 

Btw: REAL HEALER, IF YOU'RE NOT SEMIRHAGE, DO NOT REVEAL!!!

 

If our "real healer" reveals, they can night protect themselves to

[Belal-Mafia]

btw, I'm getting dressed for work now and gonna eat somethign before I go, I may or may not have time to post again before I leave. if not then let me say this because as ishy said I didn't need to do it

 

I am sorry for calling you all morons and other names, it was my attempt at playign differently (I've said why I'm playing differently messana)

 

in fact it rather seems I've handled everything all wrong now and that it is rather myself who is the moron

 

no hard feelings to you guys if I'm lynched

 

But i know I can be valuable to you guys if you don't kill me

 

bye and <3

 

^^

 

So Semi is clearly Vemynal.  I told you I'd vote you off first to prevent you spamming the thread, didn't I?

 

That said - [glow=red,2,300]Unvote[/glow], and I say we vote [glow=red,2,300]no kill[/glow].  Sounds evil, I know - but here's why:

 

We already have a lot of information right now.  The finder should view Semi tonight; if Semi is guilty, reveal, and we still have an unidentified healer to protect you.  If Semi is innocent, we have a guaranteed innocent member of the final trio, if it gets that far (since Vemy can self protect all the way through), and we don't lose an innocent today.

 

[glow=red,2,300]Equally importantly, we have some real suspicions on who is guilty, based on which people were leading the charge to have Semi lynched after the reveal (which would be huge for the mafia)[/glow]

 

In other words - we've got more information than we have any right to expect out of day 1 already, so there's no need to randomly lynch a probable innocent.  Vote "no kill", people.

[Guest Moghedien-Mafia]

Moghedien doesn't pounce.

 

Barm, she's out of character! 

 

She can pounce when she sees a nice hunk of flesh to tackle. *snugglehugglewuggleloveykissykins the Be'lal man* Oh, and, I see we have a metagamer on our hands.

 

If our "real healer" reveals, they can night protect themselves to

 

Did you read my reasoning on why they should not do so? I believe that not revealing would be the best outcome.

 

That said - Unvote, and I say we vote no kill.  Sounds evil, I know - but here's why:

 

We already have a lot of information right now.  The finder should view Semi tonight; if Semi is guilty, reveal, and we still have an unidentified healer to protect you.  If Semi is innocent, we have a guaranteed innocent member of the final trio, if it gets that far (since Vemy can self protect all the way through), and we don't lose an innocent today.

 

We do not have to lose our kill today though. On occassion, the innocent team have snared an evil on day one, and this might be the case today. I believe we can get through the day and still carry through with the rest of this plan tonight.

[Balthamel-Mafia]

Be'lal you just did two extremely mafia like things.

 

You want the healer to reveal and you want us not to kill anyone.

 

For that reason I am going to [glow=red,2,300]Be'lal[/glow]

 

Thats a lot of evidence.

 

Semy if you are the healer I would suggesting healing yourself, and our finder if we have a finder should investigate semy tonight to determine if she is guilty or not.

 

I reckon we should lynch Be'lal for either being a mafia, symp or a townie who is going to get us killed...

[Arangar-Mafia]

Ok!  Wow, ummm this is certainly different than the randomness we started with.  I'm gonna catch up on reading and see what madness has come into play.

[Guest Moridin-Mafia]

*wakes up groggy from two kilos of poisoned marshmallows*

 

Mmhere. Is it puddin' yet? *slips further down the wall*

 

Where did Be'lal say he wanted the real healer to reveal? I believe he was just pointing out that they were capable of healing themselves, since Mesaana the Hysterical had seemed to forget this a few pages back. What he said was that the healer should stay hidden if it isn't Vemirhage, and that Vem should be investigated tonight. This means that if the healer is Vem well that isn't anything we weren't already told. Here's the relevant quote:

 

 

We already have a lot of information right now.  The finder should view Semi tonight; if Semi is guilty, reveal, and we still have an unidentified healer to protect you.  If Semi is innocent, we have a guaranteed innocent member of the final trio, if it gets that far (since Vemy can self protect all the way through), and we don't lose an innocent today.

 

 

Emphasis mine. However, I'm still a bit suspicious of this go to night idea. Okay, a lot. After all, it doesn't add anything to your strategy. We could just lynch someone else. Like you, for instance.

 

And a clarification on terminology: please don't refer to the mafia as 'lyncging' people. Someone did this a while back. You just confuse the issue. We lynch. The mafia nightkill, or if you're too lazy to type that then 'kill' will be fine. Other variants like 'eviscerate' or 'throttle in their sleep' are also acceptable. Lynch is strictly a term for the daytime, democratic murder (unless Barmy has other plans which we haven't heard of).

[Balthamel-Mafia]

If our "real healer" reveals, they can night protect themselves to

 

 

That said - Unvote, and I say we vote no kill.  Sounds evil, I know

 

They are capable, but they renders them useless.

 

 

[Arangar-Mafia]

Right, Be'lal.  I don't like the "no lynch" thing either.  We loose a try at getting the evil ones.  Why are you in such a hurry to get to the night? (Side note- I know that sound's odd as we are twenty something pages in and only on first day.)

[Guest Moghedien-Mafia]

I said that, I said that! ME! ME! ME!

[Belal-Mafia]

Full explanation of my logic coming - hold up, this is taking a while to type

[Guest Moridin-Mafia]

True, and I'd be worried if I thought he was actually advocating this as a course of action, but I think he's just pointing it out. Mesaana thought they'd die that night from lack of protection. They wouldn't. But it still isn't a good course of action.

 

So Bel'al is innocent of encouraging the healer to reveal (if it is someone other than Semi, otherwise the point is moot) but guilty of wanting us to go to night withought a lynch. I'm hesitant to vote for him because he looks to be one of the more lucid players, apart from that blip. So I'm going to wait to hear more about his reasoning.

[Arangar-Mafia]

Yes Moggie dear.  I am agreeing with you.  I was tellng Be'lal I don't like his idea.

 

*pats Moggie on the head*

 

I also agree with that point Moridin...that's why I didn't vote for him as of yet.

[Belal-Mafia]

People. Stop. Think.

 

This reminds me of a thread on another site I frequent, where the issue was fantasy football.  The general rule for fantasy football is you need to draft 2 running-backs in the first 3 rounds, because if you wait much longer than that there will be almost nothing left (since other teams will take a 3rd and even 4th running-back early, leaving you with bad players and backups to choose from).

 

Anyway, a guy posted a question about the league he was in, which had a rule that you could take no more than 2 running backs in the first 9 rounds.  Given that, he asked, does it make sense to wait on a second RB and pick other positions?  The answer, if you think about it, is very possibly yes, [glow=red,2,300]because the main reason for needing to pick two running backs early - a fear that other teams will take more than 2 before you can get your second one - was no longer applicable.[/glow]

 

The first guy to respond to the thread, however, just said "no, you have to take 2 running backs" - because his immediate reaction was to  just reiterate the general rule without thinking about the specific situation.

 

That's what it seems like people are doing here.

 

Yes, the general rule in Mafia is a no-kill on the first day is a bad idea.  But [glow=red,2,300]why[/glow] is it a bad idea?

 

It's a bad idea because if you vote no-kill day 1, then [glow=red,2,300]you get no information[/glow], give the mafia a free nightkill night 1, and [glow=red,2,300]end up in the exact same place at the start of day 2 that you were at the start of day 1, except down one innocent player[/glow].  That's enough of a reason to make it worthwhile to lynch a probable innocent.  Unless anybody really thinks we'll randomly nail an evil today (I don't)

 

So, the real question is: Does that general rule apply here?  And the answer is "no":

 

1) We've gotten a lot of information.  If there's no finder reveal tomorrow, then we know:

 

Vemy/Semi is a confirmed innocent, and our healer;

There are a few players to be very suspicious of:

 

Mesaana, for doing her best to get us all to take the extremely risky action of lynching our probable healer (a very Mafia thing to do)

 

Sammael, for being moderately more careful in how he spread the lighter fluid, but still spreading it

 

Balthamel, for pushing a lynch today when it's really not in our interest (though he gets back burnered for the fact that my suggestion [glow=red,2,300]is[/glow] radical and suspicious, viewed superficially)

 

Ishamael (lowest on the totem pole, something just hits me the wrong way)

 

If Semi is guilty, then we lynch her tomorrow and still have the healer available to protect the finder.  And Mesaana and Sammael become more likely innocents.

 

So, the first pitfall of not lynching Day 1 in a typical game - a lack of information - [glow=red,2,300]is absolutely not a problem[/glow] in this game.  Neither is the second pitfall (that Day 2 just becomes Day 1 all over again).

 

In other words, given the way this Day 1 has gone, we should depart from traditional Mafia rules and go to night without a kill - because the benefit of random lynching (getting more information) will be relatively small (it will only ad minimally more info to the mix that we already have) when compared to the detriment - likely lynching an innocent (definitely if you lynch me ;D)

 

So let me ask you this:

 

Given that we already have a ton of information to work with, why should we risk a lynch?

 

And if the answer is only that we "lose a try at getting the evil ones", then that's not enough of a reason at all! First of all, the odds that we lynch an evil today are much lower than the odds that we lynch an innocent.  Second, the goal isn't to random lynch people and hope, its to develop information and make informed choices about who to lynch.  Random lynching that doesn't do much in the way of information gathering is a bad thing, not a good thing - and if we random lynch today, every vote will be explainable with "well, it was day one, we had to pick someone", so only minimal info will be gained. (Yes, that's true of every mafia game, but again, if the choice is minimal info and a dead innocent v. no info and a live one, take option A every time.  Where the choice is "a ton of info plus minimal info and a dead innocent" v. "a ton of info and no dead innocent" take option B every time).

 

Third, that answer is false.  Run the numbers and you'll see that we get the same number of lynches if we lynch someone today or if we don't, since we have an even number of players:

 

Day 1 - 18 players, assume 4 mafia = 14I/4E

Day 2 - (lynch an innocent, nightkill innocent - 12I/4E

Day 3 - 10I/4E (I'm ignoring the possibility of guilty lynches just for the numbers' sake)

Day 4:  8I/4E

Day 5 - 6I/4E (endgame - lynch an innocent, nightkill an innocent, and the numbers even out, evils win, no day 6)

 

Without a lynch today that becomes:

Day 1, no lynch

Day 2: 13I/4E

Day 3: 11I/4E

Day 4: 9I/4E

Day 5: 7I/4E

Day 6: 5I/4E (endgame - if we lynch wrong, we lose)

 

In other words, [glow=red,2,300]either way we get at least 5 tries to lynch an evil player[/glow] (more if we actually kill a couple.

 

We "loose" nothing by not lynching today.

[Belal-Mafia]

True, and I'd be worried if I thought he was actually advocating this as a course of action, but I think he's just pointing it out. Mesaana thought they'd die that night from lack of protection. They wouldn't. But it still isn't a good course of action.

 

Correct - Mesaana was either operating on false info about the healer (why would they die that night?) or deliberately spreading it; either way, its worth pointing out that the info was false.

 

Also correct on the non-reveal; the only reason to want a counterclaim is to let us know that one of the two are guilty. Since that has obvious problems for a healer, and the finder would have to investigate anyway, we get the same benefit without the counterclaim by just having the finder investigate Semi. 

[Guest Moghedien-Mafia]

I hate to give up first blood, but it is possible this is worth consideration. I am leaving my vote, nonetheless, because you did not like my pouncing and that makes me sad.

[Guest Moridin-Mafia]

I only have one problem with all of this: there's only one 'o' in 'lose'.

 

Just a thought: don't go speculating over people's true identities out loud unless you think you can save them that way (ie they're about to get lynched) because one reason for these accounts is to avoid lynching people based on reputation, or worse, having them nightkilled because of reputation.

 

Well as soon as I've found my trusty painkillers I'm off to go watch hyperactive kiddies try to eat donuts off strings, along with a variety of other potentially noisy activities.

[Belal-Mafia]

I hate to give up first blood, but it is possible this is worth consideration. I am leaving my vote, nonetheless, because you did not like my pouncing and that makes me sad.

 

;D

 

Seriously, though - [glow=red,2,300]vote No Kill[/glow], lets go to night, I'll get nightkilled (pretty sure my cover is blown and with our healer tied up I'm target 1, but at least I'm roleless, so no big loss for us) and work with what we've got tomorrow.

[Guest Moghedien-Mafia]

Are you who I think you are? Because if you are, I might have more faith. Aside from that, I think this is something we need to discuss as a team.

[Balthamel-Mafia]

TO be honest, there may be some reasoning behind you approach, but look at it from the mafia POV.

 

They get a free kill, and they now know that they have the doctor tied up.

 

Besides even if we don't kill semy and the cop finds her guilty, I still don't think the cop should come out as the mafia will then know who our cop is.

 

BTW Semy is NOT a confirmed innocent, atleast not in my book.

 

Simply put lynching is the townies only weapon, but not using we are essentially waling targets as in a battle between a mafia who will always lynch an innocent, and a cop will rarely find a mafia, then scum will usually win, espically if in the 4/5 days it takes to whittle down the group they take out the doctor.

 

Think about, even if the cop is perfect it will take atleast 3/4 nights to find all the mafia, realistically it will take 7/8, in which case aorund 7 innocents will of died, one of them could will be the doctor and the second that happens its game over for the townies.

 

That is why the cop should not reveal.

 

Just because you have a good analysis doesn't mean your not scum. Look at the last (-mafia) game when the best leaders tuened out to be scum!

 

Look at it from a maifa POV>

 

We know who the doc is, the cop will likely just confirm her innocence, and we kill an innocent!

 

Win win win...

[Guest Semirhage-Mafia]

I know who be'lal is and I trust him guys so i'll be [glow=red,2,300]unvoting[/glow]

 

[glow=red,2,300]No kill[/glow] if barm will allow it.

 

I am confused over how a healer wound up revealing when a simple apology would have shifted attention and votes away from any player. There are many ways to avoid a lynch before revealing your role, and Semi has enough experience to have known that.

 

for the last time, I'm not as smart as you guys think I am >.<

 

and a simple apology would have gotten all 8 votes off of me? I doubt it, my closest person was be'lal and he only had 2.

 

I needed 2 more votes and i was dead, and in 2 hours i had to leave for work for the next 9. I didn't want to risk dying :P

 

Also, guys I thought of something

 

I’m with out a doubt healing myself tonight. As I said, I’ve already turned in the night action for it.

 

So have the finder view me tonight! If he/she doesn’t say anything then I’m obviously good and if they do I’m lying. And we now it can’t be a wasted night kill because I will heal myself if the healer or if evil I can’t murder myself without showing up evil.

 

And while we don’t know if we have a symp this game the only down side would be that a symp could claim finder and kill me, in which case, while I still profess my innocence, the finder should not reveal.

 

I also don’t think we have a symp or he/she would have claimed healer by now

 

 

as to Sammael and Messanna, for now I want to keep them around. Messana has shown herself to be a good questioner and Sammael noticed certain inconsistancies in my posts (genuine mistakes true, but a murderer would make mistakes after all)

 

and seeing as Messana is the one I'm most suspicious of atm and I'm willing to keep her alive and vote a no kill means the rest of you should be willing as well.

 

and sorry if the above post seems slightly broken in places, i formed the 2nd and 3rd part before the first when i finished reading the thread XD

 

If we do as be'lal says then we start our "day 2" with the knowledge of me being good or at the worst I die and then you know who an evil is (I would die because the finder should *NOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES* reveal if a fake finder reveals. We can risk crackign a few eggs to get at the murderers, they can't unless they have symps (and I doubt they do)

[Guest Semirhage-Mafia]

Look at it from a maifa POV>

 

We know who the doc is, the cop will likely just confirm her innocence, and we kill an innocent!

 

Win win win...

 

they do but can't touch me, cop can't reveal but also doesn't have to reveal as i said above, they kill an innocent, we don't lynch an innocent

 

Tie, Tie, lose, win

 

Bal, if you think we should lynch someone then who do you propose lynching? after messaana my list basically goes:

You

Be'lal

Ishy

 

and then I haven't gotten anything from anyone (guys, there is a slight chance our 3 non-voters are our new players who this is their first real game. In Suras I didn't open my mouth really until we only had 10 people left)

[Graendal-Mafia]

the Healer is useless when the only person it can risk healing is himself! now, we can have no one reval their roles. the Finder (I'm assuming there is a Finder) must be very careful if/when they find an evil. because they cannot be Healed. I'm tempted to vote for Semi just for that  :P

 

but I wont. i'll vote for [glow=red,2,300]No Kill[/glow] since that seems to be the most popular option at the moment. I'll be gone all day. see ya's  :-*

[Guest Semirhage-Mafia]

the Finder (I'm assuming there is a Finder) must be very careful if/when they find an evil. because they cannot be Healed. I'm tempted to vote for Semi just for that  :P

 

not my fault, you lot were the ones obsessed with voting lucky #8 :P

 

At least now if the finder ever had to reveal I'll be alive to make that sacrifice if I have to :P

 

vote update:

 

Vote Count:

 

Semirhage (1): Demandred,

Moghedien (1): Rahvin

Asmodean (1): Moridin

Rahvin (1): Halima

Be’lal (2): Moghedien, Balthamel

Mesaana (1): Asmodean

No kill (3): Be’lal, Semirhage, Graendal

 

10 to lynch or "no kill"