My initial thinking was that maybe whoever orchestrated the Aiel assasination attempt may have also been responsible for the slaughter of the tinkers. The Tinker slaughter is what made Mat decide to stop and make camp. Then Aiel were brought in via gateway for an attack on his tent. Maybe it was a way for the orchestrator to try and pick the ground for the assasination attempt?
I do think your faux-Dragonsworn thoery is possible, but wouldn't they need to cross the river, requiring boats? I thought the Band was travelling on the east bank?
There is also talk of lots of refugees travelling up and down the road, not really knowing where to go and I am pretty sure any Dragonsworn sightings would've been passed on to Mat and his army.
Also, aren't Altara and Murandy a long ways from where the slaughter takes place? Wouldn't they have to cross the Hills of Kintara or Plains of Maredo?
The point of Niall's plan is for everyone to know that it is dragonsworn who are laying waste to the countryside. So one would think that the whitecloaks would go about this by making caravans with the dragons fang or something similar. The children of the light are known to be believes in symbols and framing people with made up evidence, not speculation. So if they were attempting to frame the dragonsworn here it would make more sense if they did something to claim the killing "in the name of the dragon" or something similar.
Mat and the Slaughtered Tinkers. 'Tell the Dragon Reborn'
in Wheel of Time Books
Posted
The point of Niall's plan is for everyone to know that it is dragonsworn who are laying waste to the countryside. So one would think that the whitecloaks would go about this by making caravans with the dragons fang or something similar. The children of the light are known to be believes in symbols and framing people with made up evidence, not speculation. So if they were attempting to frame the dragonsworn here it would make more sense if they did something to claim the killing "in the name of the dragon" or something similar.