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I understand that Rand was spotted at the battles which led to Merillor, as he intended, and Mat's skill as a general, augmented by memories of countless previous lives, made Demandred believe he was facing someone from his age i.e. Lews Therin. This to me seem insufficient. He must have known that a battle was being thought at Shayol Ghul, everyone who was fighting for the light at Merillor knew that the Dragon was at Shayol Ghul, so his spies should have known this, and just before Egwene's death I believe she can feel the channelling of saidar coming from the pit of doom, so naturally Demandred should also feel the saidin being channeled. One theory I had, which I give very little credit, is that perhaps Mordin wove Compulsion on him, in order to keep him away from Shayol Ghul, as he did not want him interfering with his own confrontation with the Dragon. Any thoughts?