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About ineedfourberfs

  • Rank
    Berf Shadow
  • Birthday 02/03/1985

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  • Interests
    Writing, Football (With the foot), Music, My Little Clairebear, Tents, Not line dancing, wool sweaters.
  1. I'm replacing out. This game has close to 250 god damn pages and it's N2. Catch ups take literally hours. The sheer volume of shitty, empty posts, mental and emotional breakdowns and general fluff make it impossible for me to ever play catch up. I play by re-reading and with this game that is just not going to happen. Sorry to disappoint.
  2. @Desp - This is exactly why I hate your gambit and these sort of plays. Everyone who see's any fault at all with it is suddenly 'caught' by it. It's just ridiculous and exasperating. I'm already drained just thinking about the inevitable confrontation that is to come.But basically you cast out a false fact and then 'catch' people who might disagree with your personal perception of the game state. After that, going back and iso'ing someone just feeds confirmation bias. I'm not saying don't iso people, not at all, but you build your cases the wrong way around. What are the reasons I'm scum? And what is wrong with my read on Halli?
  3. Caught up. @Sili - man, you gotta shut up and the play the game. The problem is, when you play the game you call out all your plays and otherwise distract town from other shit. The problem I have is that I don't think you are scum at this stage despite so, so much evidence to the contrary. Derptown over Derpscum. Overnight and today you've just flailed in every direction, and for the second time I'm gonna say it, it clogs up the thread for no reason. There are so many NO CONTENT posts, and it makes it ridiculous to try to come to grips with the game. It's not just you who is guilty of the last, though. Also, STOP SAYING HOW BAD YOU'D BE AS WOLF AS A DEFENSE. It is a null statement at the very best, which is still pretty shit. Just stop. @everyone - Sili is town. Look the posts. It's ridiculous yes, but that's derptown as derptown can get. And for added weight, look at your Despo v Tommy read and compare it with sili's. @Arsis - Fully backed hardclaim watcher, with zero result on Tommy, and nothing countered. Three options - 1) Scum lying about being watcher or 2) is watcher 3) town gambit. 1- Scum option - can't see scum poking thier head out with the game like it is with a claim that could easily countered. Overnight, too, so it would have been done blind. The only counter-point is that it's risky as shit play FOR A TOWN PR TO PULL. But the scum motivation is lower than town, which then leaves; 2,3 - equally viable. 'trying to draw the NK' as a watcher is strange to say the least. Either way, Arsis is leaning pretty strongly town, but I can't quite shake my suspicion yet. With our hypothetical doc already overworked, I think scum will eventually confirm this for me. @Desp - Seems to be ignoring me for the most part. I don't know how to read that. The Vig 'gambit' jesus. Lead the town on a merry waste of time so you can pull out a scumread? At what cost? We didn't have a Vig shot last night for whatever reason, and you might have contributed to that. Any potential real vig out there has to look at your play and think wtf. Let's just say I don't think it's the most risk free and result driven play Desp seems to think it is. I'm still 50/50 on the slot. I can see Desp scum doing this, I can see desp town doing this. Either way I hated it. Also the @sili baiting. Desp has been around long enough to know what reaction he's going to get from a player such as @sili. What is the town motivation for the provocation? I hate that that rhymes. Anyway, Would lynch, not first choice. @manbat, @rags coming off as town all through here. @Manbat what was your SK comment all about? Was it you who mentioned 'knowing' there was an SK? Because with @AJ in the game, I can't really see two 3rd parties. Unless AJ is telling fibs? @Alanna suspicion is kinda interesting because I've never been able to read her. I can never discern any motivation from the positions taken on wagons and such, which itself is a minor ping because cloudy reads are not to be taken lightly. I'd likely go with the crowd on this but for now I'm still getting town vibes regardless. The RB thing could be a slip though, so I'm trying to decide wether my resistance to it is moreso due to the fact that Desp is claiming it as proof of methodology. Would lynch, not first choice. @Halli pinged a bit which I do not like. I keep reading the vote onto @Sili and it doesn't come off genuine, and it might be a case of cory's absence highlighting the slot without a tonne of crap to hide it. @Yates - You make a very valid point about the Beloved Princess kill not being a major deal, but that only stands true for the moment. My worry is more toward endgame, when the scum could potentially and likely use it to take out up to 4 villagers with any potential vig shot double misfiring. But you're town so carry on. @BFG - Verb remembers me. That's independant of thinking the fundamentals of mafia don't change much, even after a few years. But sam as @yates - You are town, carry on. For that matter, I really don't understand the @Verbal votes. I'm not seeing anything that changes my opinion of that. @Prala anonymous, @Tommy still town, if I've forgetten anyone they've not done anything of note since my last post. SO where does that leave us No kills overnight. No Vig/Vig Holstered/Vig RB'd/JK'd/Target Protected. Same mostly with the NK - Though I highly doubt they'd holster N1 - what is the point? My maths from earlier is all wrong now, but not by much. I still think it's optimal to lynch @Tommy asap. This is an issue than needs addressing. If he makes it to late game when the percentage chance of him dying increases, the more damage a double night phase could do for scum. With a makeup of 2-5 scum v town, two night phases in a row could drop that to endgame, and that's a scenario that could take place on day 4. If it's not the @Tommy lynch today, it should be tomorrow. There's also the issue of survivor AJ. Let's face it he becomes a liabililty late game also. I'm being loud about these two lynches because they both hurt late game, and we're on day 2 with 2 people needing to die quickly and nobody really seemingly thinking it through to conclusion. If it's not @Tommy, then the wagons so far are @Alanna, @Sili and @Verb, none of which I really like except maybe Alanna. I don't have the strongest scum reads because this game is off the rails with fluff and emotion, but I'd be happy to see a lynch on @Despo, @Praya for lurk mode policy, or @Halli slot. So ##VOTE: HALLIA - The tone change could be new meta or scum meta. The ping above. The fact that you had cory with you is also damning.
  4. And now my maths is wrong. Great. I mean yay nobody died etc. Anyway I'm off to a bbq.
  5. Furthmore: Survior Hardclaim. AJ cannot make it to end game, fact. That is just built into the claim. Ergo I'd conclude it's legit, otherwise the SK has just bought a whole tonne of attention onto himself for no real reason. Scum motivation for the claim? Hard to see. Brings too much attention and ultimately will get him killed one way or another, which makes it hard to survive to end game, yes? So I'm inclined to believe this, and we'll kill this slot if we happen to mislynch a few times and get closer to endgame. Survivor can't hurt us for the first 3 days at least, running the numbers assuming Vig+NK are in play and aren't prevented in any way. (worst case = 16 players - 6 town = 10. 1 Survivor and max of 4 scum still can't outvote 5 town) So unless we get a few more kills than we should do overnight, AJ is probs survivor, and therefore we can ignore him for a few days. Hardclaim Beloved Princess; Tommy - Again cannot make it to end game. Provided we assume the claim is real we have to take into account a few factors; 1. Potential Doc Protect - Relies on a few things. 1. That there is a doc and 2. The doc believes the claim and 3. the Doc sees Tommy as their biggest protection target. Same for any commuter/JKer etc. 2. Potential NK - 1. Will the scum believe it 2. Do they try for mislynch over NK. IF Tommy is telling the truth, the question for me ultimately is can he survive to endgame? For that to happen, the mafia have to not NK the slot assuming we don't lynch. Is it possible to ensure protection? I would wager no. I believe that at some point, the mafia will come for Tommy, either when numbers are down as a hail mary, or later on in the game when a double dose of NK and night actions could really screw things up for town. So then the question becomes when to remove the slot, because it's a time bomb, really. I would think that removing the slot earlier rather than later would hurt scum more than any other option. Having two night phases early on can also have some benefit to town ie cop/vig etc can fire off two shots without having to dodge a mislynch, and the lack of claims in thread (@Arsis >.>) reduce the informed pool of mafia NK choices. Warning: Maths + Pessimism. All assuming 4 scum+Survivor+NK. Potential Vig makes this more extreme. Day 2 start 16 -2 town= 14 - 9 town 1 Sv 4 scum Day 3 start 14 -2 town= 12 - 7 town 1 Sv 4 scum Day 4 start 12 -2 town = 10 - 5 town 1 Sv 4 scum - From here town has to lynch correctly, but will eventually get down to 1v1 and gamewin for the scum. If we Lynch @Tommy Day 2 we go to Day 4 with potentially (14 @D2 Start - 2Nk -2Vig -@Tommy) 9 players. Potential makeup swings between (4 town 1 survivor 4 scum) and (7 town 2 scum) If we Lynch @Tommy Day 3 we go into Day 5 with potentially (10,11 or 12 players Vig dependant, - 2Nk, -2 Vig - @tommy) 5 or 7 players, which could swing between (0-4 scum)(0-7 town) ie anything. So if I'm reading that correctly a Day 2 @Tommy lynch, combined with a misfiring Vig and NK's could hand the win to scum. That is in a 4-scum scenario situation, however, which makes me lean toward a 3 player scum team, which also gives veracity to the Survivor claim on balance. Let's see then; 3 scum+Survivor+NK+Vig Day 2 Start with 13 players (16 - D1 Lynch N1 Vig +NK) Day 3 Start with 10 players (13 - D2 Lynch N2 Vig+NK) Day 4 Start with 7 players (10 - D3 Lynch N3 Vig+NK) If no scum caught by this stage, Day 4 lynch becomes endgame. If @Tommy is lynched day 2 (Coming back to look at this before I posted and I noticed that a Day 4 start is BETTER for town with a Day 2 Tommy lynch than without it. Day starts with 8 players over 7 thanks to a skipped D3 lynch) Day 4 Start with 8 Players, Makeup swing between 3 scum +Sv + 4 town or townwin with scum lynches/vig shots) 16-8=8 (D1 - Lynch + nk+vig = 3) (D2 - @tommy +nk+vig = 3) (D3 - nk+Vig = 2) If @Tommy is lynched day 3 Day 5 start with 5 players, with makeup swing from townwin to scumwin. 5 dead town given @Tommy and 4 NK's. So 11 players - X, where X is equal to 2 lynches and 4 vig shots. 16-11=5 (D1 - Lynch + nk+vig = 3) (D2 - Lynch +nk+vig = 3) (D3 - @tommy +nk+Vig = 3) (D4 - nk+Vig = 2) Hrmm. If there is a Vig in this game, the shots will make or break town. Also this points me toward being very wary of a Tommy lynch anytime other than immediately. Or scum could take the shot overnight and render all this useless. @Tommy, thoughts? The only way you can't really screw town is to ride potential scumtrap wifom to avoid NK's and/or ride potential protection until win. Are you confident you'll live to see the death of at least 3 scum? Because if you are not, we need to kill you and limit damage, and it seems like Day 2 is the time to do it. @Sili - Please don't cop claim for me. If I was going to cop claim, I'd handle it. Also you are as guilty as Desp and Tommy for spamming up the thread, so don't think you don't get a wag of the finger for that. @Desp - Vig shot on @Tommy is weird. Either A) You are lying about being the Vig and thus clouding any potential real Vig shot or B) Are the actual Vig and are banking on protections and taking a very cavalier approach to @Tommy. You don't seem to have any consideration for the play - ie scum plan, or laying a scum trap, or town being real = You've leapt to scumtell without giving it proper thought. What benefit is there to scum claiming this? It invites death. @Arsis - So you aren't the watcher? Wanting to draw the NK would imply you are VT trying to take one for the team. But you abandoned the gambit pretty quickly? Wouldn't it make more sense to keep up the claim until morning, at least? Strange.
  6. This is almost intolerable. @Desp you are cluttering up the thread here just as bad as @Tommy. You can't call it scummy then egg him on by engaging, and not engaging over anything meaningful. You are trying to change his read of@Sili, but you are calling @Tommy scum anyway so no, he won't get behind you. You are calling him scummy for bogging down the thread but that's exactly what you are doing here too. And why is this even happening right now? Surely this can wait until day after some actions have gone through? And @Desp I thought you shot @Tommy anyway so why are you engaging in the first place??? Make your cases during the day and vote each other or make out or do whatever it is you both need to do to release this tension, because pages and pages of both of you throwing nothing but emotionally charged shit at each other only helps scum hide in the background. @Arsis did you actually genuinely hardclaim watcher, there? Because if so, you are a friggin' idiot.
  7. @Rags - Juju is all well and good, but I like it backed up with evidence of plays or positions which I can test for motivation. But anyway. Verb being able to fake all that I've said is the exact reason I'd still be ok with his lynch, as it stands. In saying that I expect him to become more um... evident in his town play, as the game proceeds, so I'm kinda ignoring the slot for the moment until I can get a firmer idea of alignment. For now I'm happy to assume town for the most part and look elsewhere.
  8. It's based of what I'd perceive as really pro-town motive when he's posted. He took good positions vs Thane and Sili later on, acted in town's interest with the Thane wagon (despite the flip), and for me personally I don't recall him voting me to blind lynch a slot on day 1 when I was absent.I had him in my maybe lynch pile and that won't change yet, but there are way higher priority targets for me. scumVerb could have caused problems in this game when he's had the opportunity, but hasn't. That's not to say he isn't sticking his next out, but he is doing in such a way that is pro town. Ie not just ruffling feathers for the sake of being a dick. And with Leelou somewhat clearing him, and a lot of town vibes on that slot apparently, that's gotta be taken into consideration also. What don't you like about Verb?
  9. But I kinda like Verb this game. Which is rare because I hardly trusted him in the few games I played with him.
  10. 160 Pages. Man. I think it was @Yates that questioned my earlier reads, saying something about them being outdated and thinking from old perspectives. I'll cordially invite you to tell me what I missed if this is the case. I had just caught up on 140 pages and was typing as I went. I haven't had all much time to digest it all beyond what was presented, but early reads and whatnot were apparent. I'm not sure what more you'd want from me? I pulled out as much info from a whole tonne of pretty shitty posting as I could. Also a lot of defense of me from some people claiming I'm following old meta, or using outdated scumtells, which I find strange. I don't really see how me doing what I'm doing (which so far, hasn't really been much) is too much different from anyone else's rulebook. I'm searching for people who I'm finding to act scummy, or find enough clues to hint at a scum motivation. I'll gladly admit to thinking the phrase 'lock clear' is bizarre though, and I have no idea what a Full Darthe entails. But having said that, DM mafia hasn't changed that much. People are still having meltdowns. There's a whole load of needless wifom by careless players. There's scum out there who are looking down on this freaking monster of a spamfest and just laughing, if not actively participating in it. But anyway. I'm not sure when it became ok to fully cloud any potential vig shot by openly discussing targets and moreso trying to lead it. This only invites interference from scum. And since when was night so chatty? It's still in my understanding that game related stuff overnight only really aids the scum in preparing for day 2, or presenting new targets to NK. The less wifom the better, the whole game is built around reducing it to reveal the scum. The more wifom they have to hide in, the more likely they are to slip through. Just my 2 cents, which might be subscribing to outdated meta. And regarding the overnight chatter, all I'll really say is out of @Desp, @Matty and @Sili, one is likely scum but that seems obvious. @Rag town.
  11. You are always a pleasant addition Attaboy We'll be spazzing the hell out at EOD and CFDing onto villagers to let wolves slip away before you know it I laughed, and was then sad. Comments towards me regarding my entry Wall - Arsis had a +1 for not believing in the PoE player list, and agreeing with my Verbal read. Those aren't really strong tells either way despite being parallel to my own beliefs. Arsis' scumpicks don't gel with my own either, which doesn't favour him, so I'm largely null on this slot. Player notes: *If you aren't listed, you aren't having an impact Thane - Early disagreements with Verb followed by buddying. Setup spec was strange. Verbal - Early anti-thane stance for the setup spec. Liked his interactions with my town reads. Hate the interaction with leelou though I can never read it, but comments regarding me being a fossil with regards to DM meta are spot on. AJ - anti-female-assigned thing from Thane. Survivor claim? Well then. Thoughts on that later. Pretty deflective but brash positions in this game. Sili - nothing early bar suspicions of Tommy. Later on oh god the self vote. Pro-Town self votes are a rare thing and this is not one of them. SO is this poor town play or poor scum play? "Gave up for a sec"... How emo is everyone around these parts? And then chainsaw defense of me. Interesting. Followed by wagon inspired meltdown hrmm. Tommy - Generally being regular Tommy as far as I can see from interactions. THis reads of excitable town. Though the suspicion of yates' play being weird due to the last game I pressume is kind of a strange motivation. -#565 - Picking from a list of Pral/Alanna/Rags/Arsis/Yates/Key/Dice/Berf. So sure of your town reads though? I'll play along though. See my scumpicks at the bottom. -#1234 Got to the hardclaim. Interesting play. Having a townread here helps. Desp - Comes in and get's sad about being killed for sure for... what exactly in his entrance? Saying "I am town?" Needless wifom about the NK. Not sure if emo Desp or scum desp. Halli/Cory - Cory I have trouble getting a read on, but Halli seems to come through as genuine. It's been a few years since I've played with her but this reads like the bubbly halli I know trying to be slightly less like the bubbly halli I know in order to improve her town play and impact in game. Of course any time someone mentions or references a meta change, I hate it. It's always a big dose of wifom and clouds reads for the current games. But anyway. - Interestingly, when info was called for regarding my meta, Halli didn't come forward. Looking for the other players involved who were around and ignored that... Manbat - I like the approach, generally for the motivation behind it moreso than for any major effectiveness. Getting involved in the play which is always a good sign. Arsis - First thing I've noticed is the Cory scumcall. Looking for Halli opinions...Can't find any. Also sus of manbat and cory. Hrmm. And now Halli, later on. WHich I find strange. The counterclaim reads like a poor reaction test. #415 - Just never a fan of play like this. Basically saying you are a psychopath invites suspicion onto yourself regarding 3rd party stuff, which, if you are town, is distracting. However if it's just poor SK play then by all means go ahead. Yates/Leelou - Cheering for Halli. Strange. Also sus of Manbat and Tommy which I find left field. Sus. So leelou is Hyrda here, yeah? Slight scumlean early on of this slot. This is Yates dragging Leelou down as opossed to Halli dragging Cory up, somewhat. Also, having any player on ignore is a massive hinderance to town play, so there's that. Unless he isn't worried about the slot because he plans on NK'ing it overnight. 1926 - Wanting to make a deal with the 3rd party is also curious. Alanna - Like the entrance to the game. Commented on me and my absence as town Alanna would. BFG - Like the entrance too, despite being on nearly opposite sides of every opinion. Liked the fact that he didn't advocate myself for a dumblynch to deflect from his own wagon. Dice - I'm having trouble getting much of a read here. Nothing has jumped out as uber scummy though so the slot can live for now. Gets town points for thinking about the Beloved Princess situation. Key - liked for the most part, but suspicion of me is off putting of course. I had access issues so I'd hope that doesn't get painted as avoidance. Finding my post scummy is of course allowed, however. Town on: Manbat, Tommy, Alanna, BFG, Halli Scumlean on Yates, probs Arsis, maybe verb, maybe sili. Pretty much null on everything else after reading up. Wagon Snapshot Berf (6): Key, Alanna, AJ, Thane, Tommy, Sili BFKEY(2): Dice, Pral Sili (5): Des, Rags, Lates, Cuddles, Arsis Arsis (2): Verbal, Monstr Not Voting (1): Berf Small Fos here on Key. Basically OMGUS. No, but pushing for a no-lynch info on someone who hasn't had the opportunity to contribute is pretty bad. That goes for all on the wagon, really. Final Wagon Berf (2): AJ, Thane BFKEY(1): Pral Sili (4): Des, Lates, Cuddles, Dice Thane (9): Tommy, Alanna, Sili, Berf, Monstr, Flea Bag, Arsis, BFKEY, Rags So given that you can generally find scum on any wagon, my leading candidates here would be Arsis to start with. Sili, Verbal and Rags next. Town or null on the rest. Survivor Claim (AJ) Interesting. I wouldn't feel great about bringing this to end game, and AJ has to know that's a common opinion. Has basically signed his own death warrant which makes me believe the claim over not. SK using survivor as defense? The kill pattern will assist with narrowing that down which we'll have to wait for. In the meantime it doesn't hurt to let this slot live, though sooner or later it will need to be dealt with. Beloved Princess Claim (Tommy) More interesting. Three options; 1) Scum fakeclaim. Motivation is there - an early claim of this nature could result in less attention being given over the course of the game. But, like the 3rd party claim above, this will ultimately mean death before lylo if it gets close. Add in the chance of a visit increasing over than not claiming anything if played wrong, and it's tough to see this as a scum play. 2) Town Fakeclaim. Possible town bomb to trade 1v1 with a scum - a noble pursuit. One would hope that whatever reason for the fakeclaim is strong, so I'm not concerned if this is the case here, depending of course on the ultimate outcome. 3) Town realclaim: Not super pro town by outing, but better early than late, because a blind NK could get lucky, hit the Beloved, and skip a night straight to scum victory. So that's basically my catch up. I don't particularly feel involved in the game yet so day 2 will be good to get some more pressing going, build up some more fruitful interactions and whatnot. A few have stood out as above. I'll be more on the money tomorrow and make Thane's lynch not be in vain. And that was exhausting so I'm going to go get some food and have a lay down. Jesus.
  12. @Tommy - You claimed Beloved Princess? Does it activate only when shot or can you be lynched safely? Because despite my townread on you, if it gets close to lylo you become scary. Up to page 50. I'll keep my wall of text to a minimum. @Dice - What's your case on Sili? Just the emotion she displayed close to her own lynch? Because that in itself isn't a scumtell. I'll be rereading the wagon closely, mind.
  13. I literally just got home from breakfast and opened the laptop and had a heart attack. Thane I think has a better than 50/50 chance of flipping scum given his early game stance. It was a good lynch in the situation. I'm just happy I'm alive. I'm trying to think of who I had scumreads on on the Thane wagon which will be good for a shortlist heading into tomorrow, and keeping in mind during my backread. p-edit - Better than 50/50 :| Sorry thane.
  14. Given though, you'd be hard pressed to find any day 1 lynch without scum on it.
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