World's End Mafia - town wins comprehensively

[Cory Caboose]

[v]Pizza[/v]

[Cory Caboose]

Ugh.

 

Conflicted.

[Zander?]

Ugh.

 

Conflicted.

 

[dicetosser1]

cory   cause ive done like 20 pages of reading   can u give me like 4-5 lines why you want to lynch pizza?

[Cory Caboose]

cory   cause ive done like 20 pages of reading   can u give me like 4-5 lines why you want to lynch pizza?

 

Here's one line: I feel like if Pizza was a villager I'd have 4-5 reasons to not lynch him.

[dicetosser1]

so, for you, its a lack of TOWN tells?

[Cory Caboose]

That's really all I ever do dice. Compile mental reasons as to why a player is a villager and the people that don't accrue equity fall into the PoE. I mean, to some extent I'm wagering that against their overall villager play so that's very much an INDIVIDUAL task, but I don't really pursue "wolfiness" as there are plenty of players who are "wolfy villagers" and IDK I never felt that was a reliable way to make reads as much as those people tend to fall into the PoE.

 

Pizza ISN'T a "wolfy villager" though, yet I have no real established villager equity for him, so what can I say about his alignment?

 

But IDK. As people will tell you throughout the years: my best reads are always my strong villager reads. Right now I feel suddenly sort of bad about where I am at this game in terms of who the wolves are and I'm trying to push through it because I'm not sure if it is because I am wrong or a lack of confidence.

[Cory Caboose]

That's really all I ever do dice. Compile mental reasons as to why a player is a villager and the people that don't accrue equity fall into the PoE. I mean, to some extent I'm wagering that against their overall villager play so that's very much an INDIVIDUAL task, but I don't really pursue "wolfiness" as there are plenty of players who are "wolfy villagers" and IDK I never felt that was a reliable way to make reads as much as those people tend to fall into the PoE.

 

Pizza ISN'T a "wolfy villager" though, yet I have no real established villager equity for him, so what can I say about his alignment?

 

But IDK. As people will tell you throughout the years: my best reads are always my strong villager reads. Right now I feel suddenly sort of bad about where I am at this game in terms of who the wolves are and I'm trying to push through it because I'm not sure if it is because I am wrong or a lack of confidence.

[Cory Caboose]

He's the person I think I am most comfortable lynching ATM.

 

Tina very close.

 

Shad close as well, but ugh.

 

They are all sort of molded together but I'm guessing at least one of them is a villager and it's driving me insane.

[Cory Caboose]

I have to make weird excuses in my brain as to why Tina could be a villager when her play screams otherwise to me.

 

She is probably just a wolf and I am probably just wracking my brain for no reason. It's the simplest answer, but I lack the courage to pursue it because I really don't want to be wrong.

 

But when have I ever been afraid to be wrong?

[Cory Caboose]

This is what totally sucks about being the Old Sage of Mafia nowadays. I feel a certain heightened level of responsibility and I want to be right literally all the time and I feel that when I am wrong I am letting literally everyone else down and while that drives me to throw time into the game and work and pick at it, it's also really emotionally draining and makes it difficult to maintain a healthy attitude.

[dicetosser1]

ok. thanks.

 

I know ure a village gatherer     as stated earlier but im starting to want people to give their reasons for voting Pizza. Like i said to Zander it seems to be a  better safe then sorry thing.

 

But if pizza isnt a Wolfy villager but u have no equity for him doesnt that make him null almost by definition?

[Cory Caboose]

Zander

BFG

Lenlo

 

Sooh

 

Nolder

Dice

 

Besie

Nikon

 

Shad

 

 

Tina

Pizza

 

 

 

 

[Cory Caboose]

I think that's the best I can do right now and if I keep pressing I'm just going to go backwards.

 

I want some other people to post and participate more than and not just me and Zander right now.

 

I don't have enough to work with, especially from Tina and Shad and Nikon and you (dice) and Nolder. Lenlo coming back would be nice as his absence has triggered paranoia spots.

[Nikonis]

After reading pages 20-30 Lenlo is looking a little better and I'm stuck feeling one of my leads is wrong... but which one? Leno and Pizza both seem to vie for the other so doubt both are mafia team together but from my reads so far can't tell which one I trust more.

 

Up to page 30 so making some progress but still a long way to go to catch up to the end...

[Cory Caboose]

But if pizza isnt a Wolfy villager but u have no equity for him doesnt that make him null almost by definition?

 

Here is how I see the game.

 

The game starts and I have everyone as null. The percentage that someone is town by rand in this game is probably something like 75%, and since you know you are a villager it goes down to something like 72% or so. So let's pretend everyone starts with "72 town points".

 

Every time somebody does something that I think makes them more likely to be a villager, I allot them some town equity; let's say these are "points". So Zander starts the game with 72 town points and makes a whole bunch of villagery posts showing a thought process that is genuine and trying to solve the game from the getgo. I assign him town points and suddenly he has 85 points so I put him in green. Then he has 92 and I put him in blue. Easy process, right?

 

Except mafia is a zero sum game. If Zander becomes more likely to be a villager, it literally makes every player fractionally more likely to be scum. The percentages still need to essentially add up the same for their too be scum in the game, so we get the "inertia" effect of a mafia game - as a game goes on, players not doing villagery things (accruing "town points") slowly lose points and village equity gap by gap.

 

Pizza has posted but not done many things that have accrued town equity with me, and since the game has a lot of forward inertia (I have 5-6 players I think are at least > rand to be villager and a couple I am considerably more sure of), he falls down the PoE ladder. It's especially concerning considering I've seen him be very villagery as a villager before, so he's capable of it. He's not doing it here, so what do you think my conclusion is going to be?

 

There is also some stuff that has bothered me, but something has bothered me about almost everyone.

[Cory Caboose]

So I guess my question is here, dice:

 

I get that you don't think Pizza has been wolfy. Okay, fair. I can see someone reading the thread and coming to that conclusion.

 

What has he done that is villagery?

[dicetosser1]

I have to make weird excuses in my brain as to why Tina could be a villager when her play screams otherwise to me.

 

She is probably just a wolf and I am probably just wracking my brain for no reason. It's the simplest answer, but I lack the courage to pursue it because I really don't want to be wrong.

 

But when have I ever been afraid to be wrong?

 

Dont be afraid to be wrong. And your responsibilty is to do ure best. Thats it.

 

Can I suggets that, based on what uve said, ure voting against ure heart?  The red suggests this to me

[Cory Caboose]

Let me think about it some more, we have time.

[Zander?]

After reading pages 20-30 Lenlo is looking a little better and I'm stuck feeling one of my leads is wrong... but which one? Leno and Pizza both seem to vie for the other so doubt both are mafia team together but from my reads so far can't tell which one I trust more.

 

Up to page 30 so making some progress but still a long way to go to catch up to the end...

 

 

Hey man thanks for catching up but i dont wanna sound like a jerk but need more then this through 30 pages of game play.  Can you at least post a reds list with some reasoning before you stop for the night.  Even say like through X amount of pages this is where I am at? 

 

Please and thank you!!!!

[Zander?]

reads

 

#thespellingishard

[dicetosser1]

I could follow him on Lenlo. It even made sense to me when he unvoted him. Your Yates point was almsot exactly what i was thinking.  At that point i was leaning. Then today during catchup his points made sense and seem to be towny.

 

Add to that my distrust of Tina this game and i already had some sus thoughts about shad.

 

Now i am aware hes a tricky so and so  and reading him can make my head spin but these things plus the fact that it seems like people are just wanting to lynch him not BECAUSE he has been scummy but because he MIGHT be or because he isnt giving clear town vibes or just because hes hard to read.... thats really locking him in for me. Im not going to say NEVER lynch cause he IS tricky but i just think this is all TOO consensus if that makes sense?

 

and people keep making that argument of "we wont actually lose who ever we lynch"  but we dont actually know exactly how that system is going to work. Cause think about it if its a simple as majority rules at night then the mafia have no hope and i cant see that happening because apparently we will know the flips.

 

 

 

does that make sense? cause it does in my head

[Lenlo]

Heres my thing.

 

I think Pizza is scum. We lynch him and I am right, scum down. We lynch him and I am wrong, he has already said he plans to night lynch Shad or Tina I believe.

 

I think Shad/Tina are scum to. We lynch Shad/Tina, they flip scum, 1 scum down. They flip town we have no idea who they night lynch. Shad would probably do Nolder if I remember right, Tina me. Im not a fan of that.

 

So im going to lynch Pizza, hopefully catch scum, if not he catchs scum on the night lynch for us.

 

By lynching Pizza more people I find scummy are likely to die.

[Cory Caboose]

My problem with his catch-up posts this morning is that they are all appeals and they happened simply because pressure caved on him very hard and he was starting to become a real wagon.

 

They'll buy him some time and consideration but usually I'm just left with very bad feelings when players only put in effort like that when they are a lead wagon and are otherwise not being themselves. Yeah, he picked at Lenlo, who is kind of easy to pick at. He didn't do much else.

[Lenlo]

My problem with his catch-up posts this morning is that they are all appeals and they happened simply because pressure caved on him very hard and he was starting to become a real wagon.

 

They'll buy him some time and consideration but usually I'm just left with very bad feelings when players only put in effort like that when they are a lead wagon and are otherwise not being themselves. Yeah, he picked at Lenlo, who is kind of easy to pick at. He didn't do much else.

Am not!