Pokemon Mafia IV: The Mystery of Heart Island--GAME OVER--TEAM ROCKET WIN

[BFG]

Up to where I replaced in, (and reads are based mostly from this point to).

 

 

 

 

Darthe

+ OP reads; eldrick town, maybe Seph, Zander mafia

+ Eldrick, JS as town, drop Seph to null (open with reads)

Votes JS

+ Accuses JS of wolf reacting to vote, ALSO questions Dice on 'too early'

- misstates VC on him (includes non existent vote by RTE)

+ open with reads, explanations for them.

+ read development

 

Zander

+ relaxed in thread early on

+/- votes JS early on for grammar, joke vote?

+ early game comments (asks Seph about Turin read)

+ decent explanation of Darthe read, good follow up

- doesn't address Seph vote

+ answers Sephs question (was joke, cos Batman)

+/- voting JS but he's reading better; so was it a serious vote, if so for what?

 

Seph

+ relaxed early on

+ early game comments - Turin post (later elaborates slightly under null)

(post 38 has difficulty reading Zander early on)

+ paying attention (Laya)

- random comment about people being absent

- vote Zander, follows Turin's vote (not sure what to make of the fact that he flagged Turin's vote himself). Doesn't like Sanders response to the Darthe Batman - read as a joke to me. Votes early despite earlier saying he can't read Zander early game.

+ easily given town reads

+ follow up on Zander vote

 

Snow

+/- Says Darthe trying to lead town

+ follow through by voting Darthe

- cases Darthe, but still doesn't reply say 'why' leading town is scummy or that it is, although implied by vote

+ good reaction to cases/pressure/votes

 

Ley

+/- votes Ithi for laughing at him

+! Votes Hallia for not responding to case

+ paying attention (RTE corrected himself over Eld/EP thing already)

(- speculation on mafia kill - don't think this is alignment indicative)

? Clarify #499 - mafia unwilling to claim, but town likely to have the same roles

+! Follow up Hallia

 

Dice

+ votes JS for 'early jumps on Darthe' (- Dice doesn't nornlly have a problem with 'gut' reads)

+/- later says he meant early game.

- Dice starts in in character discussion, extended argument with EP which essentially becomes semantics

+ votes EP (follow up to discussion)

- doesn't like that JS wagon stalled, but voting off the wagon.

- continues claim discussion

 

TMD

+ relaxed opening

- Vote Darthe (points out things that could be motivated by either alignment, says that and then jumps at one conclusion.

 

Thane

- yolo vote Darthe (early jump on Darthe following Snow and Ley sounding suspicious of Darthe)

+? Unpressured read list,

- but no explanation given other than gut (gut reads usual for Thane Day 1, but he's normally able to point to a couple of things that explain them).

- asks who Firebird is, but apparently didn't notice EP posting even though he had on that page

 

 

RTE

(- never corrects Darthe about vote, but seemingly no one else noticed either)

- Eld gone off rails(?) making Dice look town??? (mean EP???) (corrected next post made null)

+ easily given reads list

+ good reaction to Ithi/Hallia discussion

 

EP

+ retracts early mistake about Darthe posting 2 images

+ vote Hallia, 'gut vote'

+/- Cyndaquil discussín, not a fan of characters clearing people, but looks like he's right (- clearing Eld solely on character claim)

- semantics discussion with Dice

(+ recognises distraction)

+ mafia vibe of Dice

 

Mashi

+/- logical post on claims, but doesn't offer any thoughts on town/mafia

+ RTE/Dice argument escalation

 

 

 

I'd skimmed most of this before joining and Seph's vote still stands out. He stated that he had difficulty reading Sander early, yet the vote comes early and immediately after Turin's vote (timing sort of null, Darthe had already voted Zander before JS). I do like the follow through here though. But other than that I like Sephs general involvement at this point.

 

Dice had weighed in on a lot of the game setup discussion, but unlike Ley/Eld/EP didn't use it to draw alignments. Only reads given on JS and EP. Comes in off JS wagon, but says he doesn't like that it stalled when he was one of the reasons it slowed. I liked the early vote as a game starter.

 

Ley is my strongest town read left alive, he had the best argument on Hallia and followed through in a convincing way.

 

I also like JS for town, I liked his reaction to pressure and his early game pushes that seemed motivated to start the game and the way he moved on from the cases.

 

Zander has been jokey and relaxed, but extremely quiet. I liked the development of his Darthe read, but had assumed that his early vote on JS was a joke, but apparently not?

 

Mashi is town side of null, but hasn't said enough to have a confident read.

 

RTE is also town side of null.

 

TMD/Thane are both null.

[ReleaseTheEvil]

I could move to Thane but I'm not sure if this is just rusty gameplay. When was your last game Thane? 

[seph]

Tell me, RTE, why is Seph such a strong mafia read for you?

 

  

 

so, i'll just assume there's 3 mafia. There was a third party, after all. 7vs3 is still possible, but that means we can't afford too many mislynches right now. If there's 4 wolves around, it's already 6vs4, and odds would be bad. SO bad that, in case of mislynch, it's game over.

 

my main role thus game, highest percentage of going through, is protect (DOC).

 

Either Darthe or EP tried to vig me last night, because my second hightest percentage power (MIRROR) was succesful. I did hope that i'd be targeted by mafia last night, which didn't happen unfortunately. I'll need to see which one of the two tried to kill me.

  

 

This looks like a attempt to game solve, but with you under pressure it looks like a caught wolf trying to find a way out.

I don't get how you would be able to see which one true to kill you. Since they did try, I think that is saying something in itself.

 

Goodbye Thane. You just gave a number of mafia that means you're trying to make us feel like we got time while it is an impossibly low number - in a 15 player game, you should expect 4 mafia, maybe even 5 (though that's very unlikely with a survivor role in there). You also dodged my question like it never existed. On top of that, you just claimed a mafia role with your mirror.

 

[unvote]

 

[v] Thane [/v]

 

(I guess I shouldn't be so harsh... You did answer my question with that mirror claim...)

  

 

so, you're totally willing to kill the claimed doc...? fine.

 

let me know if i need to selfvote to get you on the way, ok?

 

I gave my opinion, and you're willing to lynch me over that. Good luck in the rest of the game.

 

How does self voting prove anything?

 

 

[v]Leyrann[/v]

 

you're going for an easy mislynch, that much is obvious to me. They can be wrong about me too, but you're too stubborn to see. Hope you'll be next when the majority votes me.

 

"Hope you'll be next when the majority votes me"

Have you already lost the will to fight this? If you were town why would you ever post this. It seems to me you are lolcating, and you have given up.

[v] Thane [/v]

[seph]

Ebwodp. My phone messed up the quotes... green is ley, let me know if you have anything is confusing.

[seph]

I actually noticed something. Thane does the mafia guessing in every game I have played with him...I don' think that is a valid point with him.
So I would really like to hear back from you thane

[John Snow]

So AH just poked me.....I kinda forgot about the game >.>

 

 

I'll catch up in a few hours, I'm about to be on the road to head back up to my apt. 

 

....thanks for not MK'ing me AH. 

[TheMasterDude]

RTW I would also like to know why you have such a strong read of Seph. I also am leaning somewhat towards Thane, but he is mostly neutral for me so far.

 

Also I would like to note that John Snow used "bite" last night. Not sure what that does, but he used it.

[TheMasterDude]

Sounds like a "take someone out" move. Could be a vig attack though.

[John Snow]

Sounds like a "take someone out" move. Could be a vig attack though.

 

Right on both counts. 

[BFG]

Who did you target?

[John Snow]

Someone I thought was scum, obviously. I have no intention of giving mafia free information. 

[dicetosser1]

 

basically, i don't know who did it. Both claimed vig powers. Seeing i don't know if it's multi use or not, it's impossible to tell for me.

 

and FoS on you for asking... *narrows eyes*

 

well then how would you have figured out if it was Darth or Ep then....your starting to howl in my ears Thane....

 

 

Cause they dies Zander.

 

@ THANE  did you USE your mirror or was it ACTIVATED by someone attacking you?

 

Summary:

 

-Thane claimed mirror, a mafia only role.

-Thane tries to give town a fake safe feel by acting as if a 3 wolf team is likely in a 15 player game with 5 or 6 20% vig shots flying around.

 

-------------------------- +

 

My vote's not moving off Thane until he's dead or someone outright admits to being mafia.

 

Ley can you prove the larger bit? i went looking on mafia wiki and couldnt find Mirror. I seem to remember seeing it as a Town role previously

 

Blue  Why is it unlikely?

[BFG]

Dice what are your reads?

[dicetosser1]

2. RTE
4. Mashiara
5. dice
6. seph
7. TMD
9. Ithi/cory BFG
10. Zander
12. Ley
13. Thane
14. John Snow
 

 

I think either RTE or TMD are mafia. Im leaning more RTE. Tinfoil has them both. TMD got a point for his JS view

Im seriously spinning JS in my head. He got outed useing a aggressive move but just came out saying yep i did. But wont say who he attacked. That bit is whats making me spin.

Im believing thane.

Ley i had as town but this latest stuff with Thane has me questioning it.

BFG  there are hints of TownBFG here   like focussing on me :D  but your catch up felt different. lean town

Cant remember what i made of Zander.

Seph leaning mafia but very unsure

Mash   no idea  think town

[dicetosser1]

pretty useless set of reads tbh

[Aiel Heart]

Day 3 Vote Count

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch

 

Seph (1) -- RTE,

Thane (3) -- Ley, Mashiara, seph

Ley (1) -- Thane

 

 

Not voting: dice, TMD, BFG, Zander, John Snow

 

 

Countdown

 

 

Going to go poke Zander too...

[John Snow]

-snip-

 

Ley can you prove the larger bit? i went looking on mafia wiki and couldnt find Mirror. I seem to remember seeing it as a Town role previously

 

Blue  Why is it unlikely?

 

 

 

Mirror is like RB. They're usually mafia, but upon rare occasion they can be town.

[John Snow]

I agree with Ley.

 

[v]Thane[/v]

 

 

Anyone remember how reluctant Mash was to follow Darthe?

 

But she sheeps Ley without a second thought. I don't like this at all. 

[Mashiara Sedai]

 

 

I agree with Ley.

 

[v]Thane[/v]

 

Anyone remember how reluctant Mash was to follow Darthe?

 

But she sheeps Ley without a second thought. I don't like this at all.

I'm not "sheeping" anyone. If you read anything from the past few days, you've seen that Ley's on my list of scum. I'm not following him, only stating that he's making sense with this information.

 

I would have voted Thane regardless of what Ley said.

[John Snow]

Call it what you like, I don't like it. 

 

Still, the rest of your posts have felt pretty townie. 

[Zander?]

 

so, i'll just assume there's 3 mafia. There was a third party, after all. 7vs3 is still possible, but that means we can't afford too many mislynches right now. If there's 4 wolves around, it's already 6vs4, and odds would be bad. SO bad that, in case of mislynch, it's game over.

 

my main role this game, highest percentage of going through, is protect (DOC).

 

Either Darthe or EP tried to vig me last night, because my second hightest percentage power (MIRROR) was succesful. I did hope that i'd be targeted by mafia last night, which didn't happen unfortunately. I'll need to see which one of the two tried to kill me.

 

please let us know which?

 

 

 

This is why Im asking....yes IF what he says IS TRUE that it had to Be Darthe of EP in his eyes cause they died.  What I WANT to know his how he intends to find out which one, thier dead....the only way this is possible is a) to have SOMEONE else claim to KILL a CONFIRMED Town, then only 1 left. b) He knows ALREADY which even if his ability allowed him to not ONLY use his power but see who attacked him in which case this SHOULDN'T be a question but a STATEMENT as to who it was if he's town, no reason not too.  If I'm missing one please let me know but My concern is with the word which....pehaps I know something revelant if this is answerd.

[dicetosser1]

zander thats gobbldegook to me atm. When I get home Im gonna break it down and check my understanding with you.

[Leyrann]

 

 

basically, i don't know who did it. Both claimed vig powers. Seeing i don't know if it's multi use or not, it's impossible to tell for me.

 

and FoS on you for asking... *narrows eyes*

 

well then how would you have figured out if it was Darth or Ep then....your starting to howl in my ears Thane....

 

 

Cause they dies Zander.

 

@ THANE  did you USE your mirror or was it ACTIVATED by someone attacking you?

 

Summary:

 

-Thane claimed mirror, a mafia only role.

-Thane tries to give town a fake safe feel by acting as if a 3 wolf team is likely in a 15 player game with 5 or 6 20% vig shots flying around.

 

-------------------------- +

 

My vote's not moving off Thane until he's dead or someone outright admits to being mafia.

 

Ley can you prove the larger bit? i went looking on mafia wiki and couldnt find Mirror. I seem to remember seeing it as a Town role previously

 

Blue  Why is it unlikely?

 

 

Large: Mirror (this has been incorrectly explained by someone else by the way) reflects an ability on the user. A cop viewing someone with mirror gets a result of himself, a kill on a mirror kills himself, etc. It is, at the very least, a much more common role for mafia, and the reason for that is very simple. If a town has a mirror role, then a mafia night kill targeting him would kill a mafia instead, which basically means, that this town player can only die through a mislynch. Which won't happen if said player plays well. So basically, giving a town mirror is giving him bulletproof + kills shooter. Considering this game has no x-shot moves but % moves, it could probably happen more than once, on top of that (though I think mafia won't try again after losing one member). The role would be grossly overpowered on town. Also remember it was his second highest percentage, which means that it was higher than two of his other abilities, which, I think, gives it a low threshold of 60% (going to assume everything is 20, 40, 60, 80 or 100 and that standard is 40 while vig is 20 and some may be higher). I would say that a mirror on town, if it existed, would be 20%, maybe 40%.

 

 

I agree with Ley.

 

[v]Thane[/v]

 

 

Anyone remember how reluctant Mash was to follow Darthe?

 

But she sheeps Ley without a second thought. I don't like this at all. 

 

 

That's a good point. I didn't really like the post already but after clicking the "quote" button twice I decided not to reply to it because I couldn't figure out for myself what exactly I didn't like.

[Leyrann]

Oh, forgot to reply to the blue:

 

A 3 wolf team in a 15 player game is unlikely because we'd have 20% wolves, while, as has actually been mentioned earlier this game, 25-33% is normal. Basically, in a 16 player game you need to have 4 wolves and can have 5, in a 15 player game that would normally be an option, but considering there was a survivor that would make the town a bit too small, but 3 wolves only really becomes an option with at most 13 or (maybe) 14 players, and that's not even counting the 5 (I'm gonna assume) 20% chance vig shots flying around. Also because a vig shot has, at least for me, a lower threshold to use than, say, a "increase chance this person's action works" or something like that.

[dicetosser1]

for the record. I know what a mirror DOES. I was looking for a role link to something like mafiwiki that tells you if a role is more commonly seen as this or as that or what