9 - 5 Mafia - Day 3 - GAME OVER! MAFIA WINS!

[seph]

I do not have Dice in the clear yet. but I have had a lot of interaction with him. The middle-now he has been very active. I honestly want to believe he is town but I am still suspicious. I feel like a few here could convince me town even if the were mafia, so I dont' want to write anything off.

Leyrann, on 19 Apr 2015 - 02:22 AM, said:

Dice is town by the way.

 

I am not sure how much credit is here as Ley wasn't very active, but Ley was town. not sure in the past how his reads were. This was pretty early in the game.

 

My early suspicions is his lack of posting, and him jumping to me on a 60-70% Gut feeling. 

 

Dice's quote from my long post 

"WHY is the most powerful question you can ask. an answer opens doors and not always doors you realize you opened when you answered."

buuut when I asked him the most powerful question this is the response I get.

 

 Posted by dicetosser1 on Yesterday, 08:48 PM in The Black Tower (Social Group)

its just the feeling you are giving me. I cant really tell you what it is.

I really want to believe dice is town, but I can't just of yet.

 

Others I am suspicious of is Darthe, though maybe not as much as I was earlier, zander, and cory of course.

 

Going to go back through a few things here

[Tim Dickens]

Dice I think you're town

 

It's thin but I think you're actually seeing what I see when I read seph's posts too.

 

Not sure if it makes seph more likely mafia but I think it makes you more likely town

[Tim Dickens]

Weremafia, that one game in which people can't decide what to call the game

[seph]

As regarding a post a bit back I do believe their was scum on the vote for Ley. Would they put both there votes on him?

 

 

Darthe (4/7) - Turin, Ley, Tina

 

Ley (7/7) - Cory, Sooh, Seph, Dice, Clov, Darthe, Zander

\

I re-read a lot of darthe's posts I am going to move him to null actually I have like quite a few things he has pointed out.

 

votes on ley- mafia suspects in order- Cory, zander

 

 

I re-read a lot of darthe's posts I am going to move him to null actually I have like quite a few things he has pointed out recently.

 

So town involves

sooh (though interested in looking into)

yates 

bfg

manbat

 

 

null

Dice( though I watching)

Turin ( honestly I have no idea)

clov - I had him as more of a townie read but I have as null for now.

Tina-(I don't remember to much I will have to re read)

mafia suspects

zander

cory

 

also manbat I guess I am blind. I don't see What you see that dice can see><

 

Thought for now 

[Tim Dickens]

Well I'd be lying if I said I didn't think you're mafia but I can't really get a handle on the game right now so for whatever it's worth im kind of not going to pressure it hard unail the earliest daybreak.

 

Maybe you can talk me out of it before hand.

 

I'm not sure that I like how cory is immediately suspected after one townie lynch from more than a few people.

 

I think if darthe is mafia it makes cory more likely mafia

 

I don't think darthe is mafia, but I'm partially biased after him pointing out that my one post was really villagery.

 

I mean I know I am really good at getting myself cleared in the eyes of the consensus regardless of my role or alignment it just caught me off guard when you did it I guess, darthe.

 

I wasn't expecting it so early I suppose.

 

Regardless I'm off work and I'll do a reread over the next rest of the day and then make a nice little list of every player in the game with a reason why they are in a category explaining what I think their alignment is

 

Then it will all be wrong and when a wolf dies I'll read their spew and probably be more accurate.

[Tim Dickens]

I am a harmless little villager caterpillar and you should leave me alone until endgame when I'm ready to hatch into a beautiful butterfly of radiant villageryness

[Tim Dickens]

Oh also the reason I think darthe/cory could be a w/w pairing is because ldo cory was leading tina lynch over darthe

 

I realize this is level one and should not be pursued too hard but I guess i just wanted to say it

[Niniel]

 

As regarding a post a bit back I do believe their was scum on the vote for Ley. Would they put both there votes on him?

 

Darthe (4/7) - Turin, Ley, Tina

Ley (7/7) - Cory, Sooh, Seph, Dice, Clov, Darthe, Zander

\

 

I re-read a lot of darthe's posts I am going to move him to null actually I have like quite a few things he has pointed out.

 

votes on ley- mafia suspects in order- Cory, zander

 

 

I re-read a lot of darthe's posts I am going to move him to null actually I have like quite a few things he has pointed out recently.

 

So town involves

sooh (though interested in looking into)

yates

bfg

manbat

 

 

null

Dice( though I watching)

Turin ( honestly I have no idea)

clov - I had him as more of a townie read but I have as null for now.

Tina-(I don't remember to much I will have to re read)

mafia suspects

zander

cory

 

also manbat I guess I am blind. I don't see What you see that dice can see><

 

Thought for now

 

Both?

[Tim Dickens]

Turin/tina seems like it has a wolf ~often

 

Probably has a wolf a ton if darthe is a wolf

[Tim Dickens]

For reference:

 

Darthe (4/7) - Turin, Ley, Tina [Ithi - voting Darthe when she was capped]

 

Ley (7/7) - Cory, Sooh, Seph, Dice, Clov, Darthe, Zander

Based off this vote count I mean

[Tim Dickens]

Turin/tina/seph/clov/Zander

 

Prolly gonna pay most attention to this group when rereading

[Yates]

Based off this vote count I mean

Assuming a scum bus on Day 1? Is there a reason for assuming this?

 

One thing to come out of your post is I think we all missed something.

 

@Mod - is the vote count on Darthe accurate in this post or is it a math fail?

Official Vote Count

 

Darthe (4/7) - Turin, Ley, Tina

 

Ley (7/7) - Cory, Sooh, Seph, Dice, Clov, Darthe, Zander

 

Seph (1/7) - Manbat

 

Not Voting: Yates, BFG

 

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. 

 

That's a lynch! Scene incoming!

[Tim Dickens]

That scum like to bus.

 

It also depends on when/where they voted darthe, how, and why they didn't switch to tina

 

If a wwolf is bussing their partner and a villager wagon appears does the wolf want to vote the villager to risk looking bad by hopping off the bus?

 

Likely not

[Tim Dickens]

Sorry I said tina and I meant ley

[Niniel]

Seph - what do you mean with "both"?

[Yates]

That scum like to bus.

 

It also depends on when/where they voted darthe, how, and why they didn't switch to [Leyrann]

 

If a wwolf is bussing their partner and a villager wagon appears does the wolf want to vote the villager to risk looking bad by hopping off the bus?

 

Likely not

How accurate has this been for you in the past? I've never heard of this approach but it seems sound, actually.

[seph]

would the mafia both put there vote on ley? I was wondering if it happens often?

[Tim Dickens]

 

That scum like to bus.It also depends on when/where they voted darthe, how, and why they didn't switch to [Leyrann]If a wwolf is bussing their partner and a villager wagon appears does the wolf want to vote the villager to risk looking bad by hopping off the bus?Likely not

How accurate has this been for you in the past? I've never heard of this approach but it seems sound, actually.

Usually if I can nail one mafiat I'm pretty accurate in finding out how their partners interacted with them

[Tim Dickens]

would the mafia both put there vote on ley? I was wondering if it happens often?

Very rare.

 

Mafia tend to do a myriad of vote patterns, but the most common is one voting on wagon one voting off wagon and one existing - either as a wagon or independent of the other two.

 

Sometimes wolves try to go all in on a townie but if the wagons are one townie and one mafia it is very unlikely both mafia voted the townie. if the wagons are both townie it's in fact increasingly likely that one mafia voted off both wagons, often on to a bus.

 

This is why resolving d1 wagons is important

[Tim Dickens]

Sometimes both wolves will vote their wolf bro to get the wagon so large that people view it as "a runaway" and will be less likely to follow through on the hammer since "everyone wants this person dead.

 

It's been coined "wolf stacking."

 

Also very rare.

[Yates]

I don't understand why you guys keep saying "both" mafia. Do you think there are only two scum in a 14 player game?

[Tim Dickens]

I dont know how many there are but I assumed three

 

It COULD be two, yates

[Cory Caboose]

Good to see I have exactly one day to solve games still

 

Brutal work day, so I'll be taking out my frustration on all of you glgl

[Tim Dickens]

Hey cory I defended you using that exact same thing!

[Tim Dickens]

Also you're monstrman