Sherlock Holmes Role Madness Mafia Town wins

[csarmi]

I think we should lynch Dice (or me if you prefer) and ask Hally to save to prove her townieness. If she doesn't comply (cause she can't), she's scum. If she does, we'd have wasted a half lynch only and we can proceed tomorrow.

 

Tell me what's wrong with that plan?

[Turin Turambar]

@Turin:

 

1) do you believe a scum governor could have 2 shots with 3+1 scum? 

2) do you believe Hally would save a townie (me) if she was scum governor?

3) do you think it's 4 or 5 mafia the more likely?

1. YES. I believe that is well within the realm of possibility but mostly I am not limiting myself to what I think the mafia could have when I have a player that has played in manner that I believe they are likely mafia.

2. YES. Especially a Miller as it still wasted a lynch day and allowed an extra NK attempt. But I am not convinced that you are TOWN.

3. Don't really care TBH. I will keep lynching the ones I think are not town until we either win or lose.

 

+1 - do you believe that if a scum governor had two shots, she wouldn't use the second one on either Despo or Len (especially Despo)?

Not is they are trying to establish her as the "deep wolf" Despo was too obv maf and Len had a viewing against him. She is basically outed immediately if she saves either of them. The numbers don't work yet for her to be that brazen.

 

 

 

 

I don't see any way that you are going to convince me that Hallia should not be lynched today. But you are making a glorious effort to keep her neck from getting damaged.

[Turin Turambar]

I think we should lynch Dice (or me if you prefer) and ask Hally to save to prove her townieness. If she doesn't comply (cause she can't), she's scum. If she does, we'd have wasted a half lynch only and we can proceed tomorrow.

 

Tell me what's wrong with that plan?

You have set the scene for her to save whoever we lynch and are then you are going to LOCKCLEAR her( ans it sounds like the person saved). So if she saves whoever we lynch then we are back where we were today with the exception of another town player killed during the night. 

 

I think she could be a mafia governor with 2x ability especially is there were only 3+1 to start. The extra saves make up for the lack of members and the lack of true PRs on the mafia team.(basically all they have shown is a JOAT) against a fairly stacked town. 

 

 

Again. I am not voting ANYONE other than Hallia today. 

[dicetosser1]

Ninjad by Turin who is currently reading my mind.

 

if i was a mafia gov i would ABOSLUTELY save whoever got lynched after that post Csarmi. No question at all.

[Krakalakachkn]

I'm going to try to get to this tonight but I'm exhausted.  At the very least I'll be on tomorrow.

[Hallia]

It's between Tsuki and Dice, I think.  I've said Tsuki all along, so I don't know why people are saying I haven't spoken of my reads

[Turin Turambar]

And if they are both town? That is why it is better to mention everyone, especially later in the game. Then everyone knows exactly how you stand on everyone.

[Tsukibana]

Bite me. If you really think a scum motivator would use his shot on a town on Night 4-5, you need to stop playing.

 

[v] Hallia [/v]

[Basel Gill]

Vote count:

 

Hally (3): Turin, Dice, Tsuki

 

Not voting (5): Hally, Csarmi, Tina, Krak, Dice, Pral

 

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch. DL is Thurs., July 10th at 9 PM EST.

[csarmi]

Seriously I'm tired of arguing when people dismiss basic logic or basic game math.

 

Someone come please and explain to Turin & all. Or at least understand...

[csarmi]

[V]Dice[/v]

[csarmi]

Hally why aren't you voting?

 

Can you save the same person twice?

[csarmi]

[unvote]

 

Damn I'm gonna unvote until we talk through this.

 

I is paranoid.

[csarmi]

Guys I'm going to work now.

 

There I'll be at a computer and I'll explain myself fully and as clearly as possible. You can refute thet, deny that or just simply say no and I'll stop pushing it, but please for the love of Faile, hear me out!

[csarmi]

Okay gonna do this from phone after all. My new audio book (Evan Curry - Out of the black) just came out but this freaking bus is so loud I can't hear a think.

 

So its gonna be split into posts.

[csarmi]

1) Game facts.

 

We have 8 players alive and 1 or 2 Mafia left. That means at worst case we have 1.5 mislynches left (a mislynch and a no lynch). This is not counting vig shots and doc saves and such.

 

We have the following players surely town:

 

Pray, Despo (they could only be scum together but that doesn't fly cause they'd have had no reason to bus Despo for instance).

 

Chak. I had sure town read on Chae. 99%. Krak and Chae were both spewed town several tomes.

 

Tsuki is almost surely town due to the motivator use.

 

Would risk the game on any of the above.

[csarmi]

2) That means the only way we can still lose is Mafia having two members and us managing to mislynch twice.

[csarmi]

3) Hally claims governor. Yes she could be scum with that. But if she was scum, I think the following holds true:

 

1) she has no more shots. This I'm 99% sure of. Mafia governor with more than one shot is so devastating it borders on bastard modding. Unless they get vigged they can deny town two day phases. This is unheard of. Also, she could have saved Despo and Tgane, both without giving up the team. Not to mention stay hidden and mess with us.

 

2) she is very unlikely to have another team mate. I'm not 100% on this, but 4+1 with a gov shot just sounds too much. Gotta lynch five while doing Max two mislynches, no real vig power to hasten Mafia death AND add a gov shot nullifying a crucial lynch? No way.

[csarmi]

Now if those are true, we have a sure way to win.

 

1) lynch anyone who isn't lock town (Dice or me, not Tina because as I said earlier if Tina is scum, so is Dice. That's because otherwise she'd never have bussed Len there over a Dice mislynch).

 

2) Hally MUST save that person if town to prove HERSELF. Note that this doesn't clear the lynched person!

 

A) she saves. Then she is town. We have practically no lynched but gained info. Next day starts with seven alive (and you have the same amount of mislynches left at seven as at eight! CRUCIAL Mafia maths). Then its surely Dice+Tina (from my POV), but you can even afford to mislynch me if you like.

 

B) she doesn't save. Then she's scum and almost surely the last. We lynch her next day and GG.

[csarmi]

I can't make this any clearer than that. I think its solid but I'm not perfect.

 

If you guys refute this I'll just yolo Hally with you and cross my fingers she's the scum. I'm actually about 50-50 now.

[dicetosser1]

Now if those are true, we have a sure way to win.

 

1) lynch anyone who isn't lock town (Dice or me, not Tina because as I said earlier if Tina is scum, so is Dice. That's because otherwise she'd never have bussed Len there over a Dice mislynch).

 

2) Hally MUST save that person if town to prove HERSELF. Note that this doesn't clear the lynched person!

 

A) she saves. Then she is town. We have practically no lynched but gained info. Next day starts with seven alive (and you have the same amount of mislynches left at seven as at eight! CRUCIAL Mafia maths). Then its surely Dice+Tina (from my POV), but you can even afford to mislynch me if you like.

 

B) she doesn't save. Then she's scum and almost surely the last. We lynch her next day and GG.

 

this is the fly in your ointment. If and yes its an if hally is a two shot mafia Gov you are guaranteeing her to get to endgame. No scum is gonna pass that up. and it IS possible that she is a 2 shot mafia gov. her game has been scummy. Saving des couldnt happen  it would have outed her straight away.

[dicetosser1]

IF we lynch anyone other then hally id say you csarmi. if you lynch me krak can be killed. Turin and pral are pretty much off the table at this point. your point about tina not needing to out lenlo holds true so i dont think her.

[csarmi]

I don't believe a 2-shot mafia governor can exist in a game.

[csarmi]

But assume for a minute that she is.

 

Then she's surely the last mafia member. Which means there is 1 mafia /7 town now.

 

She saves the lynch, let's say the NK goes through: 1m/6t. In that case we STILL have two possible mislynches left.

 

We lynch Dice. If he's scum, Hally can't be scum. If he's town, Tina can't be scum (the bussing last day). Enough time to lynch all the uncleared players in either case (and I count myself as uncleared there).

[dicetosser1]

1/6

 

lynch me 1/5

 

NK 1/4

 

lynch wrong 1/3

 

nk 1/2

 

so in 3 days then its lylo.  this shouldnt take that long.  

 

the problem is hally cant really be proven. if she saves someone that doesnt PROVE she is town. as i said i wouldnt hesitate at this point if i was mafia gov. She saves herself still not proven.  nope she needs to go. only her flip will clear things up i think