Sherlock Holmes Role Madness Mafia Town wins

[csarmi]

Turin, assume I'm town and work from there. Where does it get you?

[Turin Turambar]

That sounds like a good way to lose.

 

I'm town. If Hally is in fact a two shot governor (I still find that more likely) then you'd be fixing up two mislynches in a row which is enough to lose if it's Tina+Dice.

 

More, if Hally is town she can prove it by saving on any lynch now (you will agree scum can't have 2x gov right?).

No. If it was 3+1 to start then a 2 shot would be viable. Especially with all the town PRs seen to date. 

 

Say we follow your plan and lynch you, let Hallia save you, if she can and will. Then what tomorrow? 

 

I think Dice particularly and Tina are more likely town than Hallia so I wanna lynch the mafia in front of me.

 

Why you protecting her so hard? Willing to be lynched in her stead? What if she doesn't save you and turns around and says it was all an attempt to draw a NK? Are we supposed to believe that? Hallia is the most likely mafia candidate and that is who I want to lynch. If she is really town then she should be giving her opinons and backing them up with valid reasoning. THAT would be the town thing to do right now.  

[Turin Turambar]

It's post like that which make me tinfoil on you Turin. Might even be that you guys sacrifices Despo, then try to ride it home with a masons claim.

And there is no Doc and No Watson in the game? So likely when the dog had to be the oracle.( I did LOL that Dice is Toby twice)

 

Like I said, it is good you are playing right to the end.

[csarmi]

Nah if she doesn't save me she's scum period.

 

I wouldn't believe 2x gov on Mafia ever. Towns only weapon is the lynch. To be able to nullify that twice is so freaking overpowered ... Think about it.Games aare usually decided in 4-6 days. Mafia be able to force 2x no lynch with possible wifom? No way. Remember we only had a single vig shot total.

 

I'm "protecting" her cause I'm town and her saving me just don't align with her being Mafia. But more cause it is 8 players alive now and passing up an opportunity to test a players claim with only HALF a mislynch if true is powerful and might be decisive.

 

Numbers, you know.

 

FYI I'm only like 70% on her now.

[csarmi]

And no the game don't have to have Watson or doc.

[Turin Turambar]

Turin, assume I'm town and work from there. Where does it get you?

On the odd chance you really are town, then it looks like Hallia saved you for cred. And let Des die for the same reason. Or she is flat out lying about the second save.

 

Look, I know I'm town. I know Pral is town. I am now very confident Krak is town. That makes Dice's claim more valid and likely. Tina could have been bussing Len but I think that is only possible, not likely. Tsuki could have motivated me for cred also. The thing is hallia is the best choice to lynch because she is linked with Len on D1, Despo worked to keep her around, You are working to keep her around, even willing to take the noose in her place when you are now only 70% on her being town. 

[csarmi]

I think you're town tho Turin.

 

1) I had the initial impression you can't be scum with Des. I don't remember why but I'm gonna trust June!Csarmi on this

 

2) you wouldn't have bussed Des cause it was pointless. You could have lynched me there making it 4-5 instead of 3-7

 

3) you would simply push and succeed a Dice lynch now... Then anything you like.

 

4) you worked hard all game even if scummy here and there cause of the wild theories and Pray was solid. Both of you been consistent too

 

5) I can see where you're coming from with your day three to day five

 

So no I'm not clearing you on claim but play.

 

So please, take a deep breath and start considering all scenarios and numbers. Talk it through with Pral. You'll be getting there.

[csarmi]

@Turin - again don't ignore the fact that Hally can be tested with only HALF the mislynch if wrong.

 

Do you refute my logic of not being a 2x scum gov? Think about it.

 

Do you refute the logic that testing with 1/2 mislynch is very useful if even numbers? If Hally is town and saves today we'll probably wake with seven alive tomorrow so we'd have lost practically nothing.

[csarmi]

Yea and add the fact that Hally did not save either Despo or Len. Would be more than foolish as scum gov with 2 shots.

 

If she is scum gov she's out of shots.

[Turin Turambar]

And no the game don't have to have Watson or doc.

so you wanna lynch me or hallia? Who do you think is more likely town?

 

 

That sounds like a good way to lose.

 

I'm town. If Hally is in fact a two shot governor (I still find that more likely) then you'd be fixing up two mislynches in a row which is enough to lose if it's Tina+Dice.

 

More, if Hally is town she can prove it by saving on any lynch now (you will agree scum can't have 2x gov right?).

No. If it was 3+1 to start then a 2 shot would be viable. Especially with all the town PRs seen to date. 

 

Say we follow your plan and lynch you, let Hallia save you, if she can and will. Then what tomorrow? 

 

I think Dice particularly and Tina are more likely town than Hallia so I wanna lynch the mafia in front of me.

 

Why you protecting her so hard? Willing to be lynched in her stead? What if she doesn't save you and turns around and says it was all an attempt to draw a NK? Are we supposed to believe that? Hallia is the most likely mafia candidate and that is who I want to lynch. If she is really town then she should be giving her opinons and backing them up with valid reasoning. THAT would be the town thing to do right now.  

 

We are right back where we were today but with one more dead villager most likely. Who do you want to lynch tomorrow in your scenario? Provided that you do get pardoned.

[csarmi]

All I'd like to achieve is not risking the game when there's no need to. Cause your plan ends in disaster if its Dice+Tina. Are you 100% convinced that's not possible?

[Turin Turambar]

More than 70%. I have Dice as >rand town and Tina at least rand town. Hallia >>rand maf

 

And I need to sleep now. so good night and make your case on whoever you think is the real mafia in your POV. then vote your conscience.

[csarmi]

BTW Turin. Check back to the Despo lynch will you? BFG flipped town and asked you to.

 

Check the train progress carefully especially my vote.

[csarmi]

Night.

 

I told you. Its either Tina+Dice or Hakly. I see no other scenario. With careful actions we can make this a 100% win.

[dicetosser1]

 

It's post like that which make me tinfoil on you Turin. Might even be that you guys sacrifices Despo, then try to ride it home with a masons claim.

And there is no Doc and No Watson in the game? So likely when the dog had to be the oracle.( I did LOL that Dice is Toby twice)

 

Like I said, it is good you are playing right to the end.

 

 

lmao  i didnt even put that together!  think im heading off to give you points turin

 

 

Night.

 

I told you. Its either Tina+Dice or Hakly. I see no other scenario. With careful actions we can make this a 100% win.

 

Hang on. You list Hally as a possibility, yet are doing all this arguing to save her?

 

 

careful actions. how is lynching me a careful action? Right now mafia cant kill krak cause they will get me instead. lynch me and krak is a open target. You KNOW there is a BG in the game. How often have you seen a Mafia BG? Cause i dont think i have. Not that there cant be one i spose but it aint in THIS game!

 

 

 

the thing that has me thinking Tina is town is that a gambit most likely wouldnt sacrifice the GF.

[csarmi]

@Dice: The careful action is to lynch a candidate (me, Dice, Tina) and have Hally save them.

 

If she is unwilling to do the save (at this point she would want to prove her towniness by confirming she has a second shot), then she's mafia period.

If she does the save, she is town and we may proceed tomorrow with seven players alive.

 

You do have a point tho Dice. Now mafia can NOT kill Krak at all cause that confirms you (either as town or as mafia).

 

So yea on that score testing with Tina (or even with me) is more sensible.

 

... and i do NOT know there's a bodyguard in the game.

[csarmi]

So on that score, I'm willing to lynch me or Tina.

[dicetosser1]

the mod posted a list of roles remember?

[csarmi]

He posted what?

[Hallia]

I don't think so dice.

[Basel Gill]

Vote count:

 

Hally (2): Turin, Dice

 

Not voting (6): Hally, Tsuki, Csarmi, Tina, Krak, Dice, Pral

 

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch. DL is Thurs., July 10th at 9 PM EST.

[Turin Turambar]

This is after I joined Pral in voting Despo, but before anyone else did. But I do think that he could feel the noose coming.

W/e. I'm done with it. Most of my frustration isn't coming from this game, I'm just letting it spill out here. Sorry for that.

 

Regardless, I'm feeling very strongly about Pray, Tina, and Tsuki being scum together. If I'm wrong about any of those, then Lenlo gets shoved in the slot.

 

Bye.

Based on Len's flip I think this somewhat spews Tina and Tsuki as town. I doubt Despo puts 2 actual teammates on his  list. Between the two Tina is the more suspect as Despo parked his vote on heronce he started getting serious heat. Also remember that Len was the one to hammer him. So it must have been already decided to bus.  

[csarmi]

 

 

 

I lowered my susp on Despo and now he isn't voting me.

 

Too bad I'm torn on Turin.

So why don't YOU list your scum reads, plain as day.

Pure scum read on:

Tina.

Lenlo.

 

Torn on Despo now. Gun to my head scum.

I keep second guessing myself on Turin. Gun to my head he's town.

I'd think Pral to be town if not for Rags signal.

 

Sure town:

 

Hally, Chak, BFG

[csarmi]

These notes may be somewhat incoherent, I've made them when I've had a few minutes free throughout the day, they don't include Day 4 posts, as I wrote most of it during lunch at work without access to DM. I'll read through what's been posted since nd update (this took to long to write for me to redo now)

 

First, numbers: 16 players initially. Standard mafia tends to be 20-30% (25% is usual but will often add third party as well). I suspect that this time there are 4 mafia and a symp. A symp, having flipped with no extra role, and lacking standard mafia communication is (in a RM game particularly) weaker than a normal mafia member (with slight possibility of being stronger in endgame if they view as Town (which is something we don't know)). Given that Town is roled up, I think it highly unlikely that Mafia only had 3 full members and a symp. So I think it highly likely that there are still 4 mafia members left.

 

 

Csarmi

 

 

- slight town lean. Given that we've had a cop and detective flip (and either definition of the role would be pretty strong) as well as an oracle I think it highly likely that town have negative roles as well. His acting like he's confirmed is also well within Csarmi's town play. Against this I don't remember playing Csarmi when he's mafia, so it's possible/probable that this is something he can pull off as mafia as well. Scummy things in his play include the flip-flopping betwen Ithi/Turin as town/mafia, the day 1 vote on Lenlo (which is scummy enough to fall through the bottom of too scummy to be scum and land somewhere in the realm of triple and quadruple bluffs), honestly the defence of Chae I'm putting as somewhere between bond influenced and scummy. The early hammer and his reaction to Tina hammering early stand out as well. I don't like his assumption that he's confirmed, but have spent time in various dead threads with him, to know that Csarmi can think that way.

 

Town: Csarmi :Mafia

 

 

 

Hallia

 

 

- leaning Town. All minor things. But first a side note entitled 'The problem with a Governor'. Governors job is to stop a lynch. Most of the time the person getting lynched is not going to be a consensus town read, so using the ability is going to piss some people off, as it negates their viewpoint. I am leaning town on Csarmi, so her 'save' doesn't influence me overly in that regard. Turin's theory that Hallia could only prevent a majority lynch is also speculation, unless there's more about the role somewhere. Rules say that failure to achieve a lynch will lead in a random lynch. If the key word there is lynch instead of modkill then there's no reason to suspect that Hallia couldn't prevent one. Dunno, haven't played with Governor role before. Additionally numbers wise, if we started off with 4(+1) vs. 11 then Hallia's save could potentially give us 3 allowable mislynches instead of 2, think null effect overall if she saved mafia. There was also a response sometime when she said something like 'I've been open and vocal this game' I've only seen her get defensive over her 'new and improved' Town game as Town (and not every town game). (Obviously I will no longer consider this a town tell of Hallias). There are very few posts that are fluffy... Overall a town read.

 

Town: Hallia > Csarmi :Mafia

 

 

 

Roleclaims:

 

 

 

If there are 4 mafia (+symp), Hallia is almost certainly Town Governor. If there are 3 mafia(+ symp) then Csarmi is almost certainly miller. Note that this doesn't mean that I think 4 mafia means Csarmi can't be miller or vice versa with Hallia, since I have them both as Town, but it would be inconceivable for me for neither of these roles to be in. (If 4+1 - then town have 2 mislynches, Hallia gives +1 if guessed correctly and null if guesses wrong - I think I'll check later) (If 3+1 then mafia are weak (symp worth less than goon, unless symp views Town and can win when the 3 are dead, so Town MUST have -ve roles in this case) should say I'm not great at agreeing with mods when games are balanced, so not relying on this

 

 

 

 

Des

 

 

- The ONLY time I can remember Des focusing on character claims AT ALL is in the Waking Dead game when he was mafia. I've followed a game where he was almost lynched as town because he refused to character claim, as being against the spirit of the game. I know I've hardly been present but there seem to have been a lot of 'catch up later posts' when he's been fairly active in other games. Disagreeing with his reads isn't helping, but not unusual. If he flipped mafia then Csarmi would be pushed higher on my town list due to Des's push against him (despite Des's propensity for bussing, I find it unlikely he'd push for two mafia mates lynches in consecutive days?). In his favor he's been consistent in fairly minor details (that I think mafia would forget about - e.g. response to Thane/Dawn reactions to Csarmi's claim). I also don't like where he's saying there's no evidence that Thane pointed to the actual mafia team while saying look at this post where he mentioned roles that could be in the mafia team means that he knows what roles there are overall (when he also mentioned the roles that Town might have, and survivors...) Tee hee, just found where I made notes on the first 8 pages of the thread Des notes that Thane is trying to keep WIFOM around on the miller, yet later jumps on X (I think, I have to check this as he's not one of the ones I remember in this debate) for saying confirmed. Here the phrase 'wifom on the miller' to me the omittance of the word 'claimed' miller means the same thing. But I can't remember if Des actually joined thyis debate (although I did when I started making notes) and I know he'll just come back with hypocritical bleh.

 

Town: Hallia > Csarmi > Des :Mafia

 

 

 

X/Dice

 

 

- Early town read on X because of his response to Turins case and his enthusiasm in pushing Tsuki (whose response I thought was scummy). Essentially X questioned Tsuki about him jumping on Chae for her 'could tell' 'could be telling' the truth statements. Followed up on it when Tsuki wasn't answering. Turin said that he said Csarmi was 'confirmed' miller, when he actually said 'all but confirmed'. His response to Turin explained why he thought Csarmi was 'all but confirmed' which Turin/Ithi didn't like because it didn't explain why he said 'confirmed' except he didn't say 'confirmed'... I haven't had the same read on Dice. He hasn't followed much through with conviction, but I struggle following Dice at all.

 

Town: Hallia > Csarmi > X/Dice > Des :Mafia

 

 

 

Lenlo

 

 

- the only thing I can recall strongly is that he nudged the train on Thane because of his 'scummy' reaction to the miller claim, but ignored Dawn's which was essentially identical, but came after the furore over Thanes initial reaction. (Incidentally this gave me a town lean on Dawn, as I think mafia would be more aware and avoid the same sort of reaction). Initial problem is that Thane flipped symp, however this was well before his 'sympathise' comment, and it's unlikely that mafia knew who the symp was that early in the game, if they knew at all, thus since Thane didn't flip mafia, his actions could be pushing a townies train, before knowing the townie was symp. His reads seem to be 'follow the crowd' rather than anything else, although I need to reread here. Just remembered, I'm pretty sure that Lenlo was pushing Ithi to claim Day 1 when she had no votes on her during the gladiator match, since I think he was reading her as town that made no sense to me.

 

Town: Hallia > Csarmi > X/Dice > Des > Lenlo :Mafia

 

 

 

Tina

 

 

- I remember some early posts when I thought she was Town, I think initially because she had the same reaction to X/Tsuki as I did. I don't recall much since then and Csarmi was right that her appearance/disappearance as one of the leading trains heading into deadline was bad (not being around at deadline because it's 3 in the morning is fine, but to disappear without any sort of claim is scummy).

 

Town: Hallia > Csarmi > X/Dice > Des > Tina > Lenlo :Mafia

 

 

 

Pral

 

 

- I think I had an early town read on Pral, but I can't remember why. I don't recall much recent play and I'm always wary of any read on Pral

 

Town: Hallia > Csarmi > X/Dice > Des > Tina > Lenlo :Mafia

 

???: Pral

 

 

 

Chae/Krak

 

 

- Early town read on Chae was because she seemed pretty relaxed on thread. I wasn't a fan of her reads list (hair? A read because of hair??) as I gave it an equal chance of being 'relaxed and unconcerned town' or 'giving no reads and hiding as mafia'. Was pushed into Town because of an early mafia read on Tsuki and I thought she responded well. I'm not as certain on my read of Krak, Scummiest thing from Chae/Krak is a combo Chae not shooting her mafia read and Krak revealing the target on thread (I've been shot once as Town doc by Des, who still thought me mafia with a BPV and was open about it, and once as a BG with a BPV by Hallia where she kept quiet about the shot, presumably realising the doc potential there). There are a bunch of reactions around this that seemed strange to me (key was Turin I think). There was something about someone saying that Chae was trying to breadcrumb Oracle as a role, then 'knew' that Dice would flip that way. I don't really understand the argument there. If you ignore that part though, I agree it's off that she's suggesting that Thane could have setup knowledge as a VT, but that makes no sense for either alignment, and in addition is before Thane's actually claimed VT (initially he said powerless, Miller could also be considered powerless) and well befor ethe symp comment, so Krak's point that Chae started defending Thane before she could have known he was symp is extremely valid. Something else that bothers me, Chae claimed JOAT on Day 2, so why would she have been blocked Night 1? This is making me extremely uneasy.

 

Town: Hallia > Csarmi > X/Dice > Chae/Krak > Des > Tina > Lenlo :Mafia

 

???: Pral

 

 

 

Tsuki

 

 

- This is split by interactions:

 

Tsuki/Chae - I still don't understand the difference between 'could be telling the truth' and 'could tell the truth' other than one's better English. You later go on to say that they mean the same, but could be read differently. Your way of handling it was 'off' as well, imo. You start off with a FoS and then seem to backtrack on the FoS, later referring to it as a clarification and not a FoS. At one stage you also say that her 'defending' of people made you shoot her in another game, when she was Town. It seems very strange that you bring up her town behaviour in another game and compare it to this one and call her mafia because of it (some people have the same meta either way, but to not even acknowledge that she may be town is what seems off).

 

Tsuki/X -

a - I don't like your turnaround on X asking you to explain here. X asks you a question, you ignore it a few times, he asks again, you answer and in the same post ask why he's so focused on a question that you weren't answering.

b - I find it extremely off that you were so caught up on Chaes wording earlier and then jump on X for saying that Csarmi was 'confirmed' when X actually said 'ALL BUT confirmed'.

c - I sympathise completely with the 'I didn't mean that statement, I meant the statement before' that became very hard to follow.

 

Tsuki/Thane -

Extremely early on I was very sure that Thane was mafia, and so the timing of your push on Chae seemed suspect. Given that Thane flipped symp, not QT mafia makes me rescind this completely. However your handling of Thane also seems 'off'. First you say he's 'off' his meta (no jokes), then vote him for being scummy, question Chae about defending him when he's off meta then turn around and question Ithi for accusing Thane based on behaviour that he does as town (or some such).

Thane has an absolutely awful reaction to Tsuki early on. Something like Tsuki says that 'Thane isn't joking around like normal' and Thanes response was 'to the person that said I was joking around, here's a joke'.

 

Tsuki/roles -

Has made at least 2 questionable assumptions about roles. I still don't get the point of saying mafia have a BG. This really does seem close to a bastard role, why not say a mafia doc or BPV? Then about Hallia's name... I don't understand the point you're trying to make (again :() We have proof that there is/was a governor role. You seem to be trying to use the fact that the pardon came from Queen Vic as a reason that Hallia s lying about her role. So either you're suggesting that Queen Vic would be a bad guy, or that someone else is Governor and Queen Vic, hasn't cC'd Hallia (although a 1-1 exchange for a none-investigative role is amazing), or??? I really don't understand what you were trying to say here.

 

Tsuki/Thane trains -

I initially thought that Tsuki was a counter train to Thane on Day 2, which 70% of the time would make me assume he was Town. However he was actually the counter to Hallia, towards end of day Des then started the train on Thane who was a counter to BOTH. I need to go through that again soon, but Day 2 in particular it's wifom as to how much mafia knew about Thane *sighs*

 

Tsuki/Hallia -

Answered for Hallia when Dice asked her about the shot/shots stuff

a - answering for somebody else always seems like a bad idea, and he got very defensive about it (comparatively Dice 1 had a great reaction to this, compared to Tsuki trying to brush X off in a similar situation earlier)

b - again, noticing the difference in words, so paying attention - but this makes me wonder about how easily he went along with the 'confirmed' thing.

 

Against this I have: Displayed 'WIM' with his collection of reads list (although until we find out if Tsuki prefers Town or Mafia I'm not sure that means much. Has displayed no fear about interacting with pretty much anyone, second is probably more important to me.

 

Town: Hallia > Csarmi > X/Dice > Chae/Krak > Des > Tina > Lenlo > Tsuki :Mafia

 

???: Pral

 

 

 

Turin

 

 

- Generally seems open about his reads, but something is making me uneasy Was the person that started the X 'confirmed' debate, but this could be due to reading quickly due to travel. Few very minor points, called Des/Lenlo out for use of word gimmicky, after they responded to a quote that Csarmi made in which he used it - so not sure what the point of it was. Think his read on me is the fairest out of everyone that's said they have a town read on me - when I thought Dice was going to CC Vanilla I thought the same thing. Slight Town, but if Des/Lenlo flipped mafia would look again, due to possible early distancing. There was also something strange from Des about Ithi/Turin early on, but I can't recall what, so was probably very minor.

 

Town: Hallia > Csarmi > X/Dice > Turin > Chae/Krak > Des > Tina > Lenlo > Tsuki :Mafia

 

???: Pral

 

 

 

Hallia

Csarmi

X/Dice

Turin

Chae/Krak

Pral

Des

Tina

Lenlo

Tsuki

 

I'm not happy with myself that I still don't have any strong reads, but only have myself to blame :(

 

Stuff that will affect this as I read through. NotBob and Ithi/Rags opinion from Day 2 onwards, the fact that they all seem to have the opposite interpretation to me has me thinking it's possible that my list is exactly the wrong way round Thane flipping as symp, although I've tried taking this into account, tbh without knowing how much h eknew about mafia, or how much mafia knew about him makes it difficult! Did mafia think he was Town (possibly try to White Knight him) or know he was mafia...

 

There are some specific things I'm looking out for, but more that I think I've forgotten. I plan on spending most of my time on Day 1, I tend to find that most important interactions are in Day 1 if you look with later flips.

 

I have some free time left tonight, but more tomorrow. I'll probably start posting as I go tho. The good news is that I've finally figured out how to split the screen on my tablet, so making notes as I go is suddenly a lot easier

 

For now [v]Tsuki[/v]

 

I've decided to help y'all out and spoiler it, since in word it's now verging on 7 pages

[csarmi]

Heh, when I started reading Des going back to NotBob's posts, I knew the whole plan is to eventually end up voting me. It was that obvious.

 

You can read my replies to Csarmi on the same vote by Rags. It doesn't even make sense if you look at how Rags tries to "put on record" a scum view at the final few hours of the day. Clearly, he was giving his read there.

 

Des is all over the place and is lock scum here. Trying to piggyback on Csarmi's analysis and using the same to vote me after realising that nobody is going to vote Turin.