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A WHEEL OF TIME COMMUNITY
Barid Bel Medar

The Seanchan: Past, Present and Future.

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I don't understand this logic.

 

In Avi's vision the Aiel and Seachan fought a war over several years which landed in a stalemate.Then the Aiel got the other nations to join them in launching an attack on the Seachan who crushed them all.

 

Now how will this change if the Aiel attack along with the other nations from the beginnning.Logically in the first instance the Seachan suffered some loses in their stalemate against the Aiel before they took everyone else on.In the second scenario they will be fighting at full strength from the start. So they should be able to crush everyone more easily.

Let me see if I can boil it down for you:

 

Army X and army Y are in a war. Neither is able to win against the other. Army X is at peace with other nations. Army Y is not precisely a nation, and while nominally allied with other nations, cannot violate their land, or use any of their resources. When they attack the holdings of army X, they need to use Gateways. They themselves have only one major city in a desert waste, and as such, while being brilliant warriors, don't have the logistical depth to defeat the other army. They hold on because of their extraordinary valor.

 

Now, in an altered scenario, army Y has the right to call on the armies of all the nations. They can freely move in all the nations, and are responsible for maintaining peace between them, including the lands of army X. Being able to move through the lands of army X, they can study them, and understand their behaviors. When they attack, they attack with the combined forces of all the nations under them, and get to coordinate the attacks, as they have the mandate to do so. Rather than a few dozen different strategies for a dozen different wars with army X, all the nations are part of one war effort. They don't enter the conflict one at a time, they enter together. 

 

In the first case, army X fights army Y to a standstill. Then Andor-Cairhein joins the war. Then, in indeterminate order, the other nations join in. In the alternate scenario, there is no such time gap. There is no "fighting to a standstill" over several generations. Its a unified war effort from the start. Get it?

In altered scenario there may not even be a war.  Period.

Of course. This argument is purely hypothetical. No one is denying that the chances of an actual war are remote.

 

>>> 

 

I don't understand this logic.

 

In Avi's vision the Aiel and Seachan fought a war over several years which landed in a stalemate.Then the Aiel got the other nations to join them in launching an attack on the Seachan who crushed them all.

 

Now how will this change if the Aiel attack along with the other nations from the beginnning.Logically in the first instance the Seachan suffered some loses in their stalemate against the Aiel before they took everyone else on.In the second scenario they will be fighting at full strength from the start. So they should be able to crush everyone more easily.

Let me see if I can boil it down for you:

 

Army X and army Y are in a war. Neither is able to win against the other. Army X is at peace with other nations. Army Y is not precisely a nation, and while nominally allied with other nations, cannot violate their land, or use any of their resources. When they attack the holdings of army X, they need to use Gateways. They themselves have only one major city in a desert waste, and as such, while being brilliant warriors, don't have the logistical depth to defeat the other army. They hold on because of their extraordinary valor.

 

Now, in an altered scenario, army Y has the right to call on the armies of all the nations. They can freely move in all the nations, and are responsible for maintaining peace between them, including the lands of army X. Being able to move through the lands of army X, they can study them, and understand their behaviors. When they attack, they attack with the combined forces of all the nations under them, and get to coordinate the attacks, as they have the mandate to do so. Rather than a few dozen different strategies for a dozen different wars with army X, all the nations are part of one war effort. They don't enter the conflict one at a time, they enter together. 

 

In the first case, army X fights army Y to a standstill. Then Andor-Cairhein joins the war. Then, in indeterminate order, the other nations join in. In the alternate scenario, there is no such time gap. There is no "fighting to a standstill" over several generations. Its a unified war effort from the start. Get it?

 

The unified war from the very start will result in what happened when Andor joined Aiel in Avi;s vision only faster. Logically that is the only conclusion.

Yes. Very logical. Andor+Cairhein is exactly the same as Andor+Chairhein plus all the other nations, plus the White Tower, plus the Asha'man, plus the Sea Folk.  :rolleyes:

 

 

Yes all of them were smashed by Seachan after a draining war with the Aiel. Imagine what the Seachan would do if they did not have the draining war with the Aiel first. Massacre!!

 

Are you really not seeing the difference between the two situations here?

 

 

There is no difference.The reason Randland lost to Seachan was the ability of the Seachan to farm damane from Randland.That is why the Aiel were not defeated initially because the Seachan could not use Randland to get more Damane as the Aiel did not hold territory from which they could do that..That primary ability(that they will farm damane) remains if all nations attack them together at once. And because of the absence of any loses due to not having to fight a mobile infantary like the Aiel for decades without the chance to make a move on territory they will be able to destroy Randland faster in the second scenario.

 

Any attack by Aiel on Seachan will lead to the WT becoming a big nice tower filled with damane.

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I don't understand this logic.

 

In Avi's vision the Aiel and Seachan fought a war over several years which landed in a stalemate.Then the Aiel got the other nations to join them in launching an attack on the Seachan who crushed them all.

 

Now how will this change if the Aiel attack along with the other nations from the beginnning.Logically in the first instance the Seachan suffered some loses in their stalemate against the Aiel before they took everyone else on.In the second scenario they will be fighting at full strength from the start. So they should be able to crush everyone more easily.

Let me see if I can boil it down for you:

 

Army X and army Y are in a war. Neither is able to win against the other. Army X is at peace with other nations. Army Y is not precisely a nation, and while nominally allied with other nations, cannot violate their land, or use any of their resources. When they attack the holdings of army X, they need to use Gateways. They themselves have only one major city in a desert waste, and as such, while being brilliant warriors, don't have the logistical depth to defeat the other army. They hold on because of their extraordinary valor.

 

Now, in an altered scenario, army Y has the right to call on the armies of all the nations. They can freely move in all the nations, and are responsible for maintaining peace between them, including the lands of army X. Being able to move through the lands of army X, they can study them, and understand their behaviors. When they attack, they attack with the combined forces of all the nations under them, and get to coordinate the attacks, as they have the mandate to do so. Rather than a few dozen different strategies for a dozen different wars with army X, all the nations are part of one war effort. They don't enter the conflict one at a time, they enter together. 

 

In the first case, army X fights army Y to a standstill. Then Andor-Cairhein joins the war. Then, in indeterminate order, the other nations join in. In the alternate scenario, there is no such time gap. There is no "fighting to a standstill" over several generations. Its a unified war effort from the start. Get it?

In altered scenario there may not even be a war.  Period.

Of course. This argument is purely hypothetical. No one is denying that the chances of an actual war are remote.

 

>>> 

 

I don't understand this logic.

 

In Avi's vision the Aiel and Seachan fought a war over several years which landed in a stalemate.Then the Aiel got the other nations to join them in launching an attack on the Seachan who crushed them all.

 

Now how will this change if the Aiel attack along with the other nations from the beginnning.Logically in the first instance the Seachan suffered some loses in their stalemate against the Aiel before they took everyone else on.In the second scenario they will be fighting at full strength from the start. So they should be able to crush everyone more easily.

Let me see if I can boil it down for you:

 

Army X and army Y are in a war. Neither is able to win against the other. Army X is at peace with other nations. Army Y is not precisely a nation, and while nominally allied with other nations, cannot violate their land, or use any of their resources. When they attack the holdings of army X, they need to use Gateways. They themselves have only one major city in a desert waste, and as such, while being brilliant warriors, don't have the logistical depth to defeat the other army. They hold on because of their extraordinary valor.

 

Now, in an altered scenario, army Y has the right to call on the armies of all the nations. They can freely move in all the nations, and are responsible for maintaining peace between them, including the lands of army X. Being able to move through the lands of army X, they can study them, and understand their behaviors. When they attack, they attack with the combined forces of all the nations under them, and get to coordinate the attacks, as they have the mandate to do so. Rather than a few dozen different strategies for a dozen different wars with army X, all the nations are part of one war effort. They don't enter the conflict one at a time, they enter together. 

 

In the first case, army X fights army Y to a standstill. Then Andor-Cairhein joins the war. Then, in indeterminate order, the other nations join in. In the alternate scenario, there is no such time gap. There is no "fighting to a standstill" over several generations. Its a unified war effort from the start. Get it?

 

The unified war from the very start will result in what happened when Andor joined Aiel in Avi;s vision only faster. Logically that is the only concl

usion.

Yes. Very logical. Andor+Cairhein is exactly the same as Andor+Chairhein plus all the other nations, plus the White Tower, plus the Asha'man, plus the Sea Folk.  :rolleyes:

 

Yes all of them were smashed by Seachan after a draining war with the Aiel. Imagine what the Seachan would do if they did not have the draining war with the Aiel first. Massacre!!

 

Are you really not seeing the difference between the two situations here?

 

 

There is no difference.The reason Randland lost to Seachan was the ability of the Seachan to farm damane from Randland.

And this won't change now, with Aviendha at the helm? She saw this being the root cause of the defeat of the Aiel. She's hardly going to let that happen.

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Actually, there's a vast difference between the vision war, and the war that would occur now.  For one thing, the Seanchan will lack the ability to "farm" channelers from the Aiel for a couple of decades before Andorhein and the rest of Randland half-heartedly join the fight.  They'll be pressed with full force immediately.  In the vision, the Seanchan are not weakened greatly by the decades of war with the Aiel, rather, they are strengthened by it, because the force that was pressed against them was never enough to defeat them outright.  Further, they had decades before that war to consolidate and organize.  Now, that force would be overwhelming as all the nations are obligated to rally to the Aiel and fight in concert.  There will be no decades of capturing damane, for while current Seanchan damane probably outnumber Aiel Wise Ones, and would have an easier time capturing just them, they do not outnumber Wise Ones, Windfinders, Kin, Aes Sedai and Ashaman.  They'd lose more damane trying than they'd gain against an organized force of free Randland channelers.  Deprived of net damane from combat, they'd lose the numbers battle over time, for their native damane who are only sparkers could never approach the numbers of sparkers plus learners the rest of Randland could field.

 

But, whether there's a war or not, the Seanchan as an Empire are doomed on the continent of Randland at the very least.  And the Empire in Randland lacks the power to re-consolidate the Seanchan continent in anything like a short time-frame.  The longer they prepare on Randland, the longer the factions in Seandar have to entrench themselves, and it is entirely possible that some of those factions free damane on their own, or discover that sul'dam can learn to channel, or have a powerful male channeler consolidating political power to deal with.  On Randland, at least, the Seanchan will be losing damane over time, not gaining them, and they will be losing sul'dam as well, as sul'dam seek to learn to channel on their own, now that they know they can.  If they hope to retake Seandar, they'll have to ally with some other nation in Randland, and the Aiel are the only ones with the capacity and the authority to do that.  This will require the Seanchan to submit to the Aiel, abolishing the foundations of their Empire which is predicated upon there being no higher authority than the Empress.  They have to recognize, as Fortuona almost does in her meeting with Rand, that the authority of Lews Therin's Empire supercedes the authority of Artur Hawkwing's Empire.  So either they choose war with the Aiel, in which case, the Seanchan as a people are doomed, or they choose peace and alliance with the Aiel, in which case the Seanchan as an Empire are doomed.

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Another incident in the book that will help fracture the Empire is the meeting of the Ogier Deathwatch Guard and the Ogier of Randland. At some point, they fight together. I have a feeling that the ogier of the empire might have a change of heart after lines of communication have been established.

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What's probably going to happen is Perrin will have to use his abilties to send assasins into Ebou Dar and kill all the sul dam/ nobility. Cut off the heads and the body will fall. It has to happen or they're finsihed. Pity Sanderson/ Jordan couldn't put more of an epilogue after 14 books. Another 100 pages wouldn't have hurt to explain what would have happened. The Seanchan hold is very tenuous. THey can't get reinforcements. Between the Asha' Man Aes Sedai the armies of the contient will have to launch the attack a couple of weeks against the seanchan after the last battle. After all the battles the seanchan probably have (according to my estimates 700 damane and 450,000 troops (that includes the countries they conquered and the Wise One's) The damane were bloodied against Shara. (I think that battle was more devastating than people think. With 700 channelers each kill each other in a plain field) It's pretty simple to me. The armies  HAVE to strike soon before they recruit more troops and damane among the countries and while Seanchan is in a civil war. Pity for Matrim Cauthon but the guy's an oaf and they need to get his ter angreal so the seanchan can't copy it. If they do forget it. The whole world will be conquered. IMO if the armies strike soon the Seanchan won't hold. Perrin should use his abilites to sneak the Aes Sedai/ Ashaman/ blademasters into the palace / damane holds... Most of their best fighters (the death watch) were killed.

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What's probably going to happen is Perrin will have to use his abilties to send assasins into Ebou Dar and kill all the sul dam/ nobility. Cut off the heads and the body will fall. It has to happen or they're finsihed. Pity Sanderson/ Jordan couldn't put more of an epilogue after 14 books. Another 100 pages wouldn't have hurt to explain what would have happened.

We know there was going to be planned Outrigger novels telling the Seanchan story before RJ passed away. There is no material on this however except for a few sentences.

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What about the dragon's peace? The Seanchan are part of that too, so I doubt there will be war for at least a few years. The Aiel seem to interpret Avi's vision as a sign that they can't go to war with the Seanchan. However well that works out, if the da'mane problem is not solved then war will break out in a few generations almost exactly like Avi's vision (though it will probably be a war with all of Randland, not just the Aiel).

I'm not so certain of the outcome between the Seanchan and Randland. If I'm wrong and the war happens right away, then yes the Seanchan have a disadvantage, but think about advantages they have. They have more than da'mane. Their culture is super organized, which is extremely good for war. They were barely bloodied in the last battle, whereas a significant portion of Randland forces were thoroughly reduced. I doubt anyone would count the Last battle a victory for the light if it hadn't been a war of annihilation. Finally, Randland just lost all of its great generals. The Seanchan generals (if you remember from the earlier books) are generally better than ordinary Randland generals, though if Mat turns against Seanchan that threat is more than neutralized. I could see it both ways. It depends on whether Mat has more influence on Tuon or vice versa (Mat can't go without Tuon's acceptance. Without his ta'veren he'll have a hard time escaping her).

The biggest advantage of Seanchan though is their warped sense of honor. I could see them sending strike forces like the raid against the White Tower, but far more devastating. Also, remember that though the Seanchan have fewer da'mane than Randland has channelers,  Seanchan can easily gain more during the war while Randlanders loose theirs, so any Randland victory would have to be quick.

If the war happens in a few generations, then it depends on how easily the Seanchan won the war in Avi's vision. If it was very easily, then I don't see it going any differently. If the war was a close one, then the wheel weaves as the wheel will.

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The longer they put the war off, the worse the Seanchan position will be for the simple fact that they've promised to let any damane who want to go free to go, and that they're still going to be losing sul'dam to the rest of Randland.  Even if they reneg on that promise, they're still only collaring their own sparkers, while everyone else will have use of both sparkers and learners, and there's at least 10 learners for every sparker.  So the longer they put off the war, the more they'll be overwhelmed by numbers of opposing channelers.  The Seanchan might be able to capture a bunch of 'em if they can launch a surprise offensive, but everybody's gonna be on the lookout for such an offensive for a little while into the Dragon's Peace, so they'll have to put it off, and the longer they put it off, the less effective that'll be.  And unless they can capture the heads of the channeler organizations in their first attempt, that'll be the last time such an attack would be effective.  Even the surprise attack against the Tower was barely a net success for the Seanchan in terms of captured or destroyed enemy assets.  The only thing that made it an unmitigated success was the acquisition of Gateways.

 

Further, it's not as simple as "Seanchan can easily gain more during the war while Randlanders loose [sic] theirs."  Both sides will be losing channelers in the conflict.  But the rest of Randland will have far more to lose, while the Seanchan will have to try to make sure they don't lose as many or more damane in attempts to capture new channelers than they actually capture.  That's a taller order than, "kill as many of the other guy's channelers as you can." 

 

Don't underestimate the difference a combined front against the Seanchan would make from the beginning of the war.  Avi saw the Aiel hold the Seanchan to a standstill for a generation before they had to manipulate help from the other nations.  If everybody else had joined in from the start, the Aiel would have won.  Also, I don't think Ituralde died in the Last Battle.  In fact, some Aes Sedai were trying to get him to accept the crown of Arad Doman in the epilogue.  So that's at least one Great Captain the LS has.  And I doubt Mat could be manipulated into waging war against Elayne, Aviendha, and the rest of the West.  Even if he couldn't wriggle his way out of commanding the Seanchan forces, he'd just make sure that he lost convincingly.

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Your theory rests on the fact that Seachan won't regain their homeland. I say because of the use of gateways,healings and other advanced weaves they learned from Elaida and will learn from Moggy they will regain their homeland quite easily The damane on the Seachan homeland know nothing about the new or the rediscovered weaves.Gateways by itself is an enormous advantage.

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Gateways are only useful if you've got the resources to put through 'em.  The Seanchan homelands are in complete chaos at the moment, multiple factions vying for power and control.  A messy civil war like that is never an easy situation to resolve, regardless of your advantages.  And the Seanchan simply don't have the forces remaining after the Last Battle to put down that kind of a mess overnight, even if they could bring everything they've got left over there instantly through Gateways, not while holding on to and maintaining stability in the lands they've conquered in the Westlands.  The only hope you've got of something like that happening is if everybody in revolt now just stops revolting when Tuon shows up, and that's not likely to happen.

 

The Seanchan are gonna have to abandon the practice of keeping damane eventually in the Westlands, or reneg on their agreement with Egwene and incur the wrath of the Aiel and everybody else who was a party to the Dragon's Peace.  The Empire might have been able to reorganize and survive that, but the foundational justification for their society rests on the supreme authority of the Empire through inheritance from Hawkwing.  The authority of the Aiel derives from the prior and more supreme authority of the Dragon, a fact which Tuon recognized in her meeting with Rand, and which joining the Dragon's Peace cements.  But the Seanchan Empire cannot survive the recognition of a higher authority than the Empire itself, not in the long run. 

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It will take years and years for Tuon to recapture Seanchan entirely.There were fifty nobles contending for the throne. However, when she does recapture it she'll have hundreds of thousands of veterans with gateways, more damane, ready to capture Randland.

 

Who cares about a piece of paper? They have to find a loophole. The loophole can be already captured Aes Sedai or Wise Ones that will be demanded back. The Wise Ones know that if they continue on they will be annihilated by slavers. The Dragon's Peace is irrelevant because of the captured Wise Ones/ Aes Sedai, that should be a good enough loophole. The Seanchan are nothing more the conquerers who want more land and power. They're really abominable people. They're armies need to be wiped out, their damane killed or captured and the sul dam executed.
 

 

 

he Seanchan are gonna have to abandon the practice of keeping damane eventually in the Westlands,

 

No they need to be kicked out of the continent entirely. That vexes me more than anything. Someone should have wrote something on what happens to them. Rather than ending it.

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Gateways are only useful if you've got the resources to put through 'em.  The Seanchan homelands are in complete chaos at the moment, multiple factions vying for power and control.  A messy civil war like that is never an easy situation to resolve, regardless of your advantages.  And the Seanchan simply don't have the forces remaining after the Last Battle to put down that kind of a mess overnight, even if they could bring everything they've got left over there instantly through Gateways, not while holding on to and maintaining stability in the lands they've conquered in the Westlands.  The only hope you've got of something like that happening is if everybody in revolt now just stops revolting when Tuon shows up, and that's not likely to happen.

 

The Seanchan are gonna have to abandon the practice of keeping damane eventually in the Westlands, or reneg on their agreement with Egwene and incur the wrath of the Aiel and everybody else who was a party to the Dragon's Peace.  The Empire might have been able to reorganize and survive that, but the foundational justification for their society rests on the supreme authority of the Empire through inheritance from Hawkwing.  The authority of the Aiel derives from the prior and more supreme authority of the Dragon, a fact which Tuon recognized in her meeting with Rand, and which joining the Dragon's Peace cements.  But the Seanchan Empire cannot survive the recognition of a higher authority than the Empire itself, not in the long run. 

 

Agreement with Egwene has nothing to do with the Dragon's peace.

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I don't understand this logic.

 

In Avi's vision the Aiel and Seachan fought a war over several years which landed in a stalemate.Then the Aiel got the other nations to join them in launching an attack on the Seachan who crushed them all.

 

Now how will this change if the Aiel attack along with the other nations from the beginnning.Logically in the first instance the Seachan suffered some loses in their stalemate against the Aiel before they took everyone else on.In the second scenario they will be fighting at full strength from the start. So they should be able to crush everyone more easily.

Let me see if I can boil it down for you:

 

Army X and army Y are in a war. Neither is able to win against the other. Army X is at peace with other nations. Army Y is not precisely a nation, and while nominally allied with other nations, cannot violate their land, or use any of their resources. When they attack the holdings of army X, they need to use Gateways. They themselves have only one major city in a desert waste, and as such, while being brilliant warriors, don't have the logistical depth to defeat the other army. They hold on because of their extraordinary valor.

 

Now, in an altered scenario, army Y has the right to call on the armies of all the nations. They can freely move in all the nations, and are responsible for maintaining peace between them, including the lands of army X. Being able to move through the lands of army X, they can study them, and understand their behaviors. When they attack, they attack with the combined forces of all the nations under them, and get to coordinate the attacks, as they have the mandate to do so. Rather than a few dozen different strategies for a dozen different wars with army X, all the nations are part of one war effort. They don't enter the conflict one at a time, they enter together. 

 

In the first case, army X fights army Y to a standstill. Then Andor-Cairhein joins the war. Then, in indeterminate order, the other nations join in. In the alternate scenario, there is no such time gap. There is no "fighting to a standstill" over several generations. Its a unified war effort from the start. Get it?

In altered scenario there may not even be a war.  Period.

Of course. This argument is purely hypothetical. No one is denying that the chances of an actual war are remote.

 

"1360629030">

>>> 

 

I don't understand this logic.

 

In Avi's vision the Aiel and Seachan fought a war over several years which landed in a stalemate.Then the Aiel got the other nations to join them in launching an attack on the Seachan who crushed them all.

 

Now how will this change if the Aiel attack along with the other nations from the beginnning.Logically in the first instance the Seachan suffered some loses in their stalemate against the Aiel before they took everyone else on.In the second scenario they will be fighting at full strength from the start. So they should be able to crush everyone more easily.

Let me see if I can boil it down for you:

 

Army X and army Y are in a war. Neither is able to win against the other. Army X is at peace with other nations. Army Y is not precisely a nation, and while nominally allied with other nations, cannot violate their land, or use any of their resources. When they attack the holdings of army X, they need to use Gateways. They themselves have only one major city in a desert waste, and as such, while being brilliant warriors, don't have the logistical depth to defeat the other army. They hold on because of their extraordinary valor.

 

Now, in an altered scenario, army Y has the right to call on the armies of all the nations. They can freely move in all the nations, and are responsible for maintaining peace between them, including the lands of army X. Being able to move through the lands of army X, they can study them, and understand their behaviors. When they attack, they attack with the combined forces of all the nations under them, and get to coordinate the attacks, as they have the mandate to do so. Rather than a few dozen different strategies for a dozen different wars with army X, all the nations are part of one war effort. They don't enter the conflict one at a time, they enter together. 

 

In the first case, army X fights army Y to a standstill. Then Andor-Cairhein joins the war. Then, in indeterminate order, the other nations join in. In the alternate scenario, there is no such time gap. There is no "fighting to a standstill" over several generations. Its a unified war effort from the start. Get it?

 

The unified war from the very start will result in what happened when Andor joined Aiel in Avi;s vision only faster. Logically that is the only conc

lusion.

Yes. Very logical. Andor+Cairhein is exactly the same as Andor+Chairhein plus all the other nations, plus the White Tower, plus the Asha'man, plus the Sea Folk.  :rolleyes:

 

Yes all of them were smashed by Seachan after a draining war with the Aiel. Imagine what the Seachan would do if they did not have the draining war with the Aiel first. Massacre!!

 

Are you really not seeing the difference between the two situations here?

 

 

There is no difference.The reason Randland lost to Seachan was the ability of the Seachan to farm damane from Randland.That is why the Aiel were not defeated initially because the Seachan could not use Randland to get more Damane as the Aiel did not hold territory from which they could do that..That primary ability(that they will farm damane) remains if all nations attack them together at once. And because of the absence of any loses due to not having to fight a mobile infantary like the Aiel for decades without the chance to make a move on territory they will be able to destroy Randland faster in the second scenario.

 

Any attack by Aiel on Seachan will lead to the WT becoming a big nice tower filled with damane.

 

 

I disagree. I think that the Senchan won because the Aiels and the different nations (institutes) fought independently, without any coordination. It supports that Andor and the Aiel disliked each other, there was no trust between them. I even suspect that some nations (WT because of the Three Oath?) didn't even join to the war initially. Thus, the Seanchan could capture the countries one by one and got more damane as you wrote. But now there is a good chance that they would face with an unified Randland + Aiel. It is a totally different situations, it is always much easier to defeat a loose coalition than an organized power as the military history proved several times.

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Agreement with Egwene has nothing to do with the Dragon's peace.

 

On the contrary, at the time both the White Tower and the Seanchan were parties to the Dragon's Peace.  Any agreement between the White Tower and the Seanchan would be subsumed under the terms of the Dragon's Peace, meaning the Aiel are the ultimate arbiters of whether the terms of this subsequent arrangement have been met.  If the Seanchan reneg on their agreement with the White Tower, and the Tower takes their dispute to the Aiel, the Aiel have the authority to judge the Seanchan faulty and use military force to press for redress, under the terms of the Dragon's Peace.  Once the Dragon's Peace is joined, it hangs over every subsequent agreement between nations that are party to it.  Abandoning their agreement to release the damane is tantamount to abandoning the Dragon's Peace.

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Agreement with Egwene has nothing to do with the Dragon's peace.

 

On the contrary, at the time both the White Tower and the Seanchan were parties to the Dragon's Peace.  Any agreement between the White Tower and the Seanchan would be subsumed under the terms of the Dragon's Peace, meaning the Aiel are the ultimate arbiters of whether the terms of this subsequent arrangement have been met.  If the Seanchan reneg on their agreement with the White Tower, and the Tower takes their dispute to the Aiel, the Aiel have the authority to judge the Seanchan faulty and use military force to press for redress, under the terms of the Dragon's Peace.  Once the Dragon's Peace is joined, it hangs over every subsequent agreement between nations that are party to it.  Abandoning their agreement to release the damane is tantamount to abandoning the Dragon's Peace.

 

:laugh:

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The longer they put the war off, the worse the Seanchan position will be for the simple fact that they've promised to let any damane who want to go free to go

 

But they haven't. I just opened my book and reread that scene (pg 472-476). When Egwene suggests that, Fortuona argues back. She never agrees to it and before the argument gets too far Egwene mentions that sul'dam are marath'damane and then the whole conversation breaks down. In the end, Fortuona agrees to preserve borders, to give the Sea Folk autonomy, to not collar any marath'damane off of Seanchan lands and to aid the forces of light in the last battle. That's all.

 

I still say the Seanchan are a very real threat to Randland. You're right, fighting to kill channelers is a far easier fighting to capture them, but the Seanchan will kill when they have to. The thing about a war though is that there will be battles involving channelers where the Seanchan are outmatched, and when the Randlanders are outmatched. Randlanders will kill the Seanchan channelers. Seanchan will capture Randland channelers. With gateways this will be an excellent opportunity for the Seanchan. I could see raiding parties set up specifically to capture damane. Also consider. At least near the beginning of the war the Randlanders would probably be merciless with the Sul'dam, but very few would understand that the damane truly belong to the Seanchan.

 

Beyond that, as I said before, the Seanchan are a frighteningly efficient empire. Their advantages are not limited to just damane. I'm not saying they'll win for sure in a war against the Randlanders, but if the empire is stable and even if they haven't retaken the homeland, they will not be an easy nut to crack.

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Of course, the Randlanders have a major public relations advantage. If they can politically undermine the Seanchan first, then I could see the Seanchan empire toppling without much of a fight.

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Personally, Tuon is my least favourite Light-side character (in fact, I don't think she meets the definition of Light-side).  If there's war, I think the best way for the Randlanders to win would be to decisively show that sul'dam are just like damane.  To do this, just plonk the a'dam collar around the sul'dam's neck, with a female Randland channeller in control.  Maybe Elayne could manufacture some a'dam for this purpose.  The best person to do this to would be Tuon herself, and I can gleefully imagine her screaming like Moggy when she gets collared, especially if it happens right in front of her court.

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P The best person to do this to would be Tuon herself, and I can gleefully imagine her screaming like Moggy when she gets collared, especially if it happens right in front of her court.

We have no idea if the a'dam would even work on Tuon.

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P The best person to do this to would be Tuon herself, and I can gleefully imagine her screaming like Moggy when she gets collared, especially if it happens right in front of her court.

We have no idea if the a'dam would even work on Tuon.

If she trains damane for a few more years, yes it definitely would.

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P The best person to do this to would be Tuon herself, and I can gleefully imagine her screaming like Moggy when she gets collared, especially if it happens right in front of her court.

We have no idea if the a'dam would even work on Tuon.

Wasn't there a scene in tGH where a sul'dam was collared, and it worked on her like on a damane?  I know it can't work initially, but presumably after some time training damane it will work, and Tuon has trained damane.

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P The best person to do this to would be Tuon herself, and I can gleefully imagine her screaming like Moggy when she gets collared, especially if it happens right in front of her court.

We have no idea if the a'dam would even work on Tuon.

Wasn't there a scene in tGH where a sul'dam was collared, and it worked on her like on a damane?  I know it can't work initially, but presumably after some time training damane it will work, and Tuon has trained damane.

Per RJ:

 

Interview: Sep 2nd, 2005                                                           

DragonCon Report - Isabel (Paraphrased)                                                                                       
Isabel                                                                        
Then I couldn't hear any other questions and I went back in line. I could only ask him one question. It's a discussion we had on Theoryland a while ago. Can the a'dam hold every sul'dam?                                           
 
Robert Jordan                                           
The a'dam can only hold sul'dam who have been sul'dam for a long time and so wearing the bracelet for a long time. Four months for example isn't enough. He said the circle helped them get to the point that's described in the book, as being on the brink of being  able to channel, one foot stepped over or something.

Tuon is young and trains damane as a hobby, she isn't a full time sul'dam who has used the a'dam consistently for years and years. One has to have worked with the a'dam for a "long time" for it to work, hence we don't know if it would on Tuon.

Edited by Suttree

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Suttree, OK, let's say it's 50-50 whether Tuon could be collared.  Most of the sul'dam could be collared, and collaring them would undermine the Seanchan propaganda.

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Suttree, OK, let's say it's 50-50 whether Tuon could be collared.  Most of the sul'dam could be collared, and collaring them would undermine the Seanchan propaganda.

Oh no doubt there are a fair percentage of sul'dam who the collar would work on. Just called out the Tuon piece because it is something that has been hotly debated for years around the fandom.

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OK, I've got an idea of what I'd do if I was the Seanchan.  Since the Dragon's Peace prohibits other countries from taking advantage of Seanchan absence, it seems like a good idea for the Seanchan to mostly abandon Randland, and return to Seanchan to stop the Civil War, and re-install Fortuona on the Crystal Throne.  Being able to Travel will give the Seanchan in Randland a big advantage over the rebellious Seanchan.  Once the rule of the Crystal Throne is re-established in Seanchan, then they can start making preparations for the conquest of Randland.

 

In Randland, women who can be taught to channel are taught, while in Seanchan they become sul'dam.  However, I don't think this gives as much advantage to the Randlanders as one might think, as the Seanchan damane are taught from the start to use the Power as a weapon, and are forced to be able to control more Power than others.  The Oath Rod restrictions would also inhibit the Aes Sedai in combat, and I believe that those who can be taught are generally weaker than those who are born channellers.

 

However, Randland does have one advantage now: men can channel without going mad, and men tend to be stronger in the more destructive powers of Fire and Earth.  So in order to combat this, the Seanchan will need male damane.  The male a'dam has a flaw that means that the man can eventually take control of the women holding the leash.  As a result, I think the Seanchan will try to break boys quickly; if the boys exhibit defiance beyond a certain point, they will be killed.  But what if a man pretends to be broken, but is actually playing doggo?  Then it might get ... interesting for the sul'dam.  (I am assuming that the Seanchan will be able to mass-produce the male a'dam).

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