Jump to content

DRAGONMOUNT

A WHEEL OF TIME COMMUNITY

a philosophical question: the dark one betrays..


Recommended Posts

It is a complicated meta-physical matter that we, as human beings, are simply no good at comprehending. Fortunately, Elan really wasn't any better at comprehending it then us since his conclusion that the Shadow MUST win is false.

 

As for what Verin said: We all seem to have simply discounted the possibility that she lied or was wrong. Or that what she said simply doesn't mean what we think it does, which would be typical considering "Aes Sedai answers".

 

I think the chance of the DO winning at each turning is something like 1 (the actual number is irrelevant, any constant works) divided by infinity. That means that the odds of him succeeding are infinitely small. It also means that if you spin the wheel an infinite number of time you get infinity divided by infinity. Which, as anyone who has taken calc knows, is a mathematical nightmare that cannot be computed on its own. As such, there is no way to know if he is going to succeed or fail. (yes, it seems like it would be 1, thus certain, but that is not true).

 

I am unsure how you can decided he is incorrect? You use the assumption first that the probability of him escaping effectivly zero when there is nothing to back that up. Anybody could pull a random figure from the air to back up a theory, (I realise you said you think but you also said he must be false which is a definate not an opinion) any other denominator would make your theory incorrect as eventually the shadow will win.

 

I don't mean to sound rude or anything sorry.

 

Anyway hello everyone, long time reader first time poster

 

 

Yes, I'm aware of that. But as has been stated earlier the Shadow has NOT won yet. The cycle has already played itself through an infinite number of times. The only way in which the DO still has a chance of winning is if it is infinitely small since otherwise he would have already won by now, an infinite number of times, actually. Otherwise they are right and the DO has no chance at all, but i don't like the idea that the Shadow wouldn't win even if the light just sat there and let them come.

 

As for me dismissing Elan as wrong, it is simply because mathematically, and logically, the DO either has a 0% chance of winning or an infinitely finite one, and neither are the "certain victory" Elan believes in.

 

Infinitely finite is a contridiction in terms but that is beside the point, either there is a 0% chance which is just crazy or there is a chance however small which just makes it an inevitability, and the fact it hasnt happened yet cannot be used to deduce that it will not happen as inductive reasoning cannot be used in a situation where there are probabilities

 

 

It is an oxymoron typically, but this in case I'm using it to describe the mathematical concept of 1/infinity, which is smaller than can be imagined, yet not exactly 0.

 

Wrong. If there was a small chance greater than any number divided by infinity then it would have already happened. The wheel has ALREADY turned an INFINITE number of times. As such, it is only possible for their to be the two cases I have mentioned, because any other possibilities would have already resulted in a victory. It can be used when an infinite number of trials has taken place.

 

Whilst I understand what you are saying I still have to disagree, yes if an infinte amount of trials has not resulted in an event then it will not happen but this is not an infinite backtracking of time, while "there are neither beginnings nor endings" sounds great, we are told that the wheel was created, for it to be created there must have been time when it wasn't created, therefore no more infinite turnings therefore finite probabilities.

Edited by Colonel Sanders
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 50
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

You are arguing in circles.

 

And you are both missing the actual point;

Any event which has a probability less than 1 of occuring will never absolutely occur. While the number of chances for the event to occur approaches infinity there is no point at which the event definately will happen as long as the chance for every event is less than 1 even though the chance of the event not occuring becomes less and less likely.

 

IOW, Moridin/Ishy/Elan is wrong, there is no inevitability of the DO's success at any point from the beginning to infinity unless the chance increases cumulatively, which would require the age lace to be changed slightly more for each turning - and we know the wheel spins out a countermeasure preciesly to counteract such influences - ta'veren.

Link to post
Share on other sites
He isn't wasting time being depressed--he just joined what he believed to be the winning side in the hopes of getting some temporary good out of the situation.

 

Elan isn't looking for any good. Goodness doesn't exist in Elan's mind. Nor does evil for that matter.. morality is not a factor for Elan because it isn't really a factor in the Wheel of Time. There is simply Order and Chaos and what humans wish to prescribe to them.

 

Elan is with Shai'tan because he's concluded that Shai'tan is going to win eventually. Maybe not in this age or the next, but some time down the line. Why fight it? Why try and keep the barbarian at the gate?

 

People don't go and shelter in the palm of the Creator after the die in Randland, they go to a little lake and sit there until the Pattern decides to yank them out again, rinse and repeat, rinse and repeat. There's no point in trying to enjoy every minute you can.. when the Dark One breaks out you're going to cease anyway. Elan recognises this. He just wants to cease now because it's going to happen anyway.

 

That is why Elan is so bad-ass. He just wants it over with.

 

But there is a paradox that he hasn't taken into account. The creator exists outside of time. The creation of all of Randland and I mean all of Randland every infinite second, every infinite variable were created at once. Time plays out in a cyclical nature meaning what happens has happened before infinite times and infinite variables. There is no beginning and there is no end. The Future is the Past. Each age is slightly different until infinity where it repeats exactly the same. Each moment branches off infinite variables of what could happpen. Yeah, doesn't make sense on a human level lol.

This means that if the DO was freed he would have already been freed in the past or the future. This says to me that he can't be freed. The only catch is that if the DO breaks free maybe it's not included in the pattern but even the DO admitted that he does not operate outside of time.

 

 

DO is not bound by wheel. That's WOT-101. He and Creator exist outside the pattern. If he gets free, he will simply break the wheel and pattern will cease to exist. Ofcourse there is this possibility that he has won his freedom many times, destroyed the wheel and all and creator has put him in his box again and again.

Link to post
Share on other sites

You are arguing in circles.

 

And you are both missing the actual point;

Any event which has a probability less than 1 of occuring will never absolutely occur. While the number of chances for the event to occur approaches infinity there is no point at which the event definately will happen as long as the chance for every event is less than 1 even though the chance of the event not occuring becomes less and less likely.

 

IOW, Moridin/Ishy/Elan is wrong, there is no inevitability of the DO's success at any point from the beginning to infinity unless the chance increases cumulatively, which would require the age lace to be changed slightly more for each turning - and we know the wheel spins out a countermeasure preciesly to counteract such influences - ta'veren.

 

 

A what? Something with less than 0.01 probability will never happen?

 

Ishy isn't wrong because of the sample size. As long as probability isn't zero, the said event can happen. Otherwise probability will be zero. Ishy didn't say when for a reason. He just knew DO can wait forever and he has to win just once. So infinity is long long time and yes, even with 0.00000001 probability you can be certain of a event actually taking place if number of chances are infinite.

Link to post
Share on other sites

You are arguing in circles.

 

And you are both missing the actual point;

Any event which has a probability less than 1 of occuring will never absolutely occur. While the number of chances for the event to occur approaches infinity there is no point at which the event definately will happen as long as the chance for every event is less than 1 even though the chance of the event not occuring becomes less and less likely.

 

IOW, Moridin/Ishy/Elan is wrong, there is no inevitability of the DO's success at any point from the beginning to infinity unless the chance increases cumulatively, which would require the age lace to be changed slightly more for each turning - and we know the wheel spins out a countermeasure preciesly to counteract such influences - ta'veren.

 

 

A what? Something with less than 0.01 probability will never happen?

 

Ishy isn't wrong because of the sample size. As long as probability isn't zero, the said event can happen. Otherwise probability will be zero. Ishy didn't say when for a reason. He just knew DO can wait forever and he has to win just once. So infinity is long long time and yes, even with 0.00000001 probability you can be certain of a event actually taking place if number of chances are infinite.

 

As long as the chance of an event is not cumulative or 1, there is no guarantee that it will ever happen even though the probability of it happening (at least) once approaches 1 for a sample size approaching infinity. A Sample size of infinity will never make the probability of an event happening = 1 as long as it is not 1 to begin with.

Thus Elan is wrong, there is no guarantee that the DO will ever win, regardles of how many attempts are made / turnings are gone through.

 

I did not say that an event will not happen if it has a probability of less than 1, I said the exact opposite, that an even with a probability of less than 1 might never happen regardless of the amount of attempts.

 

To put it in easily understandable turns. You could take a coin and flip it from now untill the end of time, and there is no guarantee that you will ever have it land heads up - ever. The probability of it NOT landing heads up at least once in an infinte sample size approaches 0, but there is no guarantees (unless we go to religion, or philosophical discussions of destiny and predestination).

Link to post
Share on other sites

^^Your "infinity" has end, it's bound, Elan's has none. Every time you fail, there will ALWAYS be a next chance. There is never ever an end. Never.There is no end of time. So I understand mathematically what you are saying but mathematics doesn't deal with actual infinity since it doesn't exist. Here it does.

 

 

Even two parallel lines touch other each when they approach infinity even though probability of that happening is basically zero.

Edited by jdbond
Link to post
Share on other sites

Firstly you can't make sense out of something illogical. Both the multiverse theory (one of the current scientific theorys for our world) and one Dark One cannot exist at once. If so the pattern would have been destroyed as the Dark One needs only win once in an infinite amount of possibilities, which mathematically speaking the Dark One wins an infinite amount of times. But even so there is an infinite amount of the pattern to destroy and you can't destroy infinity, thus the pattern can never fail. Even if the Dark One wins in another reality it will never get to each other world as there will be an infinite amount of worlds to be destroyed first. It's not explained fully and it's hard to just think of mathimatical euqations involving infinity. This is exactly why scientists hate infinity as the notion is stupid.

 

So either 1 there is not an infinite amount of possibilities. 2 Verin and others were wrong when they said that the Dark One would destroy all worlds or there is a Dark one for each world bound by the creator. Simply philosophically-wise there are not an infinite amount of worlds.

Link to post
Share on other sites
But by that same token should there not be a world in which the attempt to seal the Bore failed? It seemed that the light was on the verge of total defeat prior to the strike on Shayol Ghul so shouldn't the Dark One have escaped there?

No. if the DO wins in one world he wins them all. if he breaks free in one is free in all worlds.

perhaps in another world the sealing of the bore took place differently, or there wasn't a bore in the first place, but there is no world in which the DO is free.

 

 

And about the forsaken failed logic... The concept of 'breaking of the wheel/end of creation' is not something you can actually comprehend, unless you're a mad philosopher. Personal life and death is clear enough, but total absence of... anything? no creation? it defies common sense.

I think the forsaken simply cannot grasp the final meaning of their actions.

Link to post
Share on other sites

^^Your "infinity" has end, it's bound, Elan's has none. Every time you fail, there will ALWAYS be a next chance. There is never ever an end. Never.There is no end of time. So I understand mathematically what you are saying but mathematics doesn't deal with actual infinity since it doesn't exist. Here it does.

 

 

Even two parallel lines touch other each when they approach infinity even though probability of that happening is basically zero.

 

By definition, 2 parallel lines will never touch eachother, it is simple impossibility - regardless of how long they are. (Thank you for math being a science of definition)

 

What I'm saying isn't that the DO cannot win, but that any thought of him being guaranteed to win at some point becuase of infinite attempts is false, thus Moridin is wrong, it is not inevitable that the DO wins if the probability of winning does not become 100% at any specific point of any specific turning (regardless of amount of turnings).

 

Someone did reference a quote in another thread that the DO gets more knowledge every turning, thus increasing his chances each turning, however, even though this means that the probability of the event occuring increases more per turning, there is still no guarantee of a win, ever.

Link to post
Share on other sites

one of the few things I have come across, though definitely not explicitly indicated in the story, is that the only forsaken to truely understand the mind of the dark one is Ishamel. While the rest of the forsakens battle for power in terms of the idea that when the dark one is freed, they will divide and conquer the lands and govern them--all under the dark one. However, it is my assumption that Ishamel conveys a certain thought long betrayed by the dark one to his Nabelis: that he is the antithesis of the creator, which implies that he wants to undo everything the creator did, whether as a final insolent attack against the creator or simply a dangerous grudge, the very thought relies on shakespeare's "motiveless, maligancy" or evil for the sake of evil. I believe that the dark one plans on undoing the pattern, thereby creating a plane of 'nothingness'--a final sop to the creator. what mystifies me the most is how effortlessly ishamel embraces this frightening idea...does the other forsaken know this? did Semihrage find out too late? and if they did, which one will most likely turn against the dark one to save a world where if destroyed, there would be nothing left to rule? or are they all self driven and blinded for what was promised to them? it seems to me that they fail to realize that the father of lies is capable of lying even to his most trusted servants. any thoughts? i greatly appreciated it!! :)

If this is the case, why not simply kill Rand in the early books? We all know, there were plenty of opportunities for the forsaken to take Rand out in the beginning. Hell, the DO had Semi save Rand's life in the Stone of Tear. It seems that the DO wants Rand to serve him/her/it, after the DO takes over. I do agree, you are either a stone cold fool to serve the DO, or a sick, sadistic person.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Or perhaps the DO NEEDS Rand to help him escape?

Sounds reasonable. Rand HAS to be at the last battle for the shadow as well as the light. We'll probably never REALLY know. As long as the home team win, huh?

Link to post
Share on other sites

So just finished a re-read of the first 4 books. An something I noticed in book 2(tgh).

 

When Rand uses the portal stone to travel, an he gets to see himself in different realities. Every single one ended with the I win again lTT.

 

Now Verin stated that if the DO wins in one reality, he wins in them all.

 

 

So if what Rand saw was the true possible, an Verin is not just making stuff up. Then either Rand isn't vital to winning the final battle. Or they are destined to lose.

Edited by nogoodatnames
Link to post
Share on other sites

So just finished a re-read of the first 4 books. An something I noticed in book 2(tgh).

 

When Rand uses the portal stone to travel, an he gets to see himself in different realities. Every single one ended with the I win again lTT.

 

Now Verin stated that if the DO wins in one reality, he wins in them all.

 

 

So if what Rand saw was the true possible, an Verin is not just making stuff up. Then either Rand isn't vital to winning the final battle. Or they are destined to lose.

 

From an online chat RJ did:

Rothaar: When Rand takes Verin and the others through a portal stone in The Great Hunt, at the end of each life he hears "I have won again Lews Therin". I thought that if the Dark One won even once the Wheel would be broken and therefore the Dragon would not be reborn again. How could the Dark One have won before to be able to say "again"?

 

RJ: There are degrees of victory. The Dark One can achieve victory by breaking free, but can also achieve lesser victories. Such as by stopping the Dragon Reborn from doing other things he was born to do. It isn't as simple as him being born to fight the Dark One. It's never simple.

 

 

If you think about it, that's exactly what the AoL was as far as the Shadow is concerned: a lesser victory. DO sealed or no, the Light did not win that war. Not in any meaningful sense. Sure, the strike itself was a victory, but the, uh, collateral damage was what you might call..."excessive". Or "completely @#$%ing disastrous".

Edited by didymos
Link to post
Share on other sites

While thats what RJ said, its hard to see how the Light could achieve a draw at all. Say Rand did end up dying in book one then, which would have been bound to happen previously. What then? No Aiel, No asha`man, etc etc. Do Mat and Perrin grow in ta`vereness? Does the Pattern spin out other ta`veren to counter it? But you still don't have a Dragon Reborn. And what if all three died?

 

Gathering Storm spoilers!

 

In ToG when Rand is about to blast the heck out of everything, if a previous incarnation did that, how would the good guys survive? If the Dragon turned to the Shadow, then what?

Link to post
Share on other sites

first no one can trust verin, she could lie. second the dark one isnt evil he is the bodhavista trying to bring all men out of the cycle of rebirth and into nirvana.

Link to post
Share on other sites

first no one can trust verin, she could lie.

 

Or she might not lie. You know: just like pretty much everybody else. Guess we can't trust any of them either.

 

second the dark one isnt evil he is the bodhavista trying to bring all men out of the cycle of rebirth and into nirvana.

 

Oh yeah, sure. Just, you know, in a really evil way, using the services of really evil people, and with the end result of everyone and everything being cast into oblivion.

Edited by didymos
Link to post
Share on other sites
Oh yeah, sure. Just, you know, in a really evil way, using the services of really evil people, and with the end result of everyone and everything being cast into oblivion.

 

Well, Nirvana is a state of nothingness isn't it? So yea, the Dark One is basically Buddha :D!

Link to post
Share on other sites

Do we know the relationship between the DO and the Creator? They both exist out of the pattern and I tend to agree that the DO is chaos, but would you consider the Creator superior or are they essentially just different sides of the same coin?

Link to post
Share on other sites

dont forget that most of the forsaken have serious drug issues and the DO is the only dealer around ;p

 

so i think he has his people prettie much under control

 

Yup, that sums it up pretty nicely.

 

I don't think even Ishamael really understands the DO. He's just crazy. The forsaken are corrupted by their thirst for power, that and they weren't "good" people to begin with. For any forsaken, the ends, always justifies the mean's (I should add, this was very close to what Rand was becoming)

 

What Rand said to Moridin in TGS sounds very close to the truth.

 

Do we know the relationship between the DO and the Creator? They both exist out of the pattern and I tend to agree that the DO is chaos, but would you consider the Creator superior or are they essentially just different sides of the same coin?

 

The world of The Wheel of Time is all about balance. If there is a Creator, there must be a Destroyer. So, yes, I would agree the Creator and the DO are 2 sides of the same coin. Of course, this would imply that the creator is not more or less powerful than the DO... So how did the Creator seal the DO at the moment of Creation???? Hmmm...

Link to post
Share on other sites

one of the few things I have come across, though definitely not explicitly indicated in the story, is that the only forsaken to truely understand the mind of the dark one is Ishamel. While the rest of the forsakens battle for power in terms of the idea that when the dark one is freed, they will divide and conquer the lands and govern them--all under the dark one. However, it is my assumption that Ishamel conveys a certain thought long betrayed by the dark one to his Nabelis: that he is the antithesis of the creator, which implies that he wants to undo everything the creator did, whether as a final insolent attack against the creator or simply a dangerous grudge, the very thought relies on shakespeare's "motiveless, maligancy" or evil for the sake of evil. I believe that the dark one plans on undoing the pattern, thereby creating a plane of 'nothingness'--a final sop to the creator. what mystifies me the most is how effortlessly ishamel embraces this frightening idea...does the other forsaken know this? did Semihrage find out too late? and if they did, which one will most likely turn against the dark one to save a world where if destroyed, there would be nothing left to rule? or are they all self driven and blinded for what was promised to them? it seems to me that they fail to realize that the father of lies is capable of lying even to his most trusted servants. any thoughts? i greatly appreciated it!! :)

 

The Guide portrays Elan Morin Tedronai as a nihilist philosopher (he was author of Reality and the Absence of Meaning), and it's not hard to draw parallels between his desire, as Ishamael, for the Dark One to permanently unmake reality and Buddhist and Upanisadic Hindu ideas of achieving the empty bliss of nirvana, liberation from the Wheel.

 

At the end of The Gathering Storm we saw that even Rand al'Thor/Lews Therin, under the weight of his responsibilities and failures, was tempted to seek a permanent end to his suffering; he saw futility in the never-ending struggle until he realized that the cycle gave him a second chance, to do things right and to love again. It's easy to imagine Elan Morin as a man who didn't have that realization.

 

Of course, if the metaphor of the Wheel spinning and re-spinning the pattern remains consistent, the Dark One will have to unravel the pattern, so the Wheel can re-spin it into a new-yet-familiar pattern. (Hinduism has a similar concept -- the dark age of cosmic dissolution, the kaliyuga must occur before the cosmic wheel can turn and create the universe anew. As Herid Fel says, "have to clear rubble before you can build."

Link to post
Share on other sites

first no one can trust verin, she could lie.

 

It's sort of off-topic, but it's worth noting that Verin does her best not to lie under most circumstances, even though she can. When you read her point of view in The Path Of Daggers prologue, she plays the Aes Sedai truth games, saying she would not speak of Katerine Alruddin to the Car'a'carn but considers giving him a note. I can only think of two times when Verin lies outright.

Link to post
Share on other sites

While the number of chances for the event to occur approaches infinity there is no point at which the event definately will happen as long as the chance for every event is less than 1 even though the chance of the event not occuring becomes less and less likely.

 

In short, to put it in terms that can be easily looked up, Ishamael falls victim to the Gambler's Fallacy.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...