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(Should probably be split from the Brazil thread)

 

Peterborough's by-election returned a labour MP. Brexit party were thought to have a strong chance of winning, the brexit party took twice as many votes in Peterborough compared to labour and the ex labour MP was recalled by the constituents after being thrown out of the labour party. 

 

I think this is both encouraging and worrying, encouraging because the brexit party lost, but worrying they got as many votes as they did when they have no manifesto. Electing meps to Europe with no manifesto except leave is not great, but ok (since the manifesto is we shouldn't be here), but there's more to a country then "leave" for our main parliament

 

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I think it says something that no plan or policy except GTFO is so important to so many.

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19 hours ago, BFG said:

(Should probably be split from the Brazil thread)

 

Peterborough's by-election returned a labour MP. Brexit party were thought to have a strong chance of winning, the brexit party took twice as many votes in Peterborough compared to labour and the ex labour MP was recalled by the constituents after being thrown out of the labour party. 

 

I think this is both encouraging and worrying, encouraging because the brexit party lost, but worrying they got as many votes as they did when they have no manifesto. Electing meps to Europe with no manifesto except leave is not great, but ok (since the manifesto is we shouldn't be here), but there's more to a country then "leave" for our main parliament

 

I think it says that there are a lot of people who havelost faith in Labour (and obviously the Tories) because they have not lived up to their pledge to live by the results of the Brexit referendum and take the country out of the EU. And yes I think it must be worrying those who believe that the stability of the major Parties is a bulwork of British democracy.

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5 hours ago, CUBAREY said:

I think it says that there are a lot of people who havelost faith in Labour (and obviously the Tories) because they have not lived up to their pledge to live by the results of the Brexit referendum and take the country out of the EU. And yes I think it must be worrying those who believe that the stability of the major Parties is a bulwork of British democracy.

I'm not worried about the decline of the two main parties, that's been happening for decades and our system needs to change to reflect that - because of the fptp system smaller parties are generally underrepresented at parliament, and despite regularly getting 5% (I havent checked the number and it may be higher) of the vote, eg ukip have no MPs, green have 1 etc, lib dem are underrepresented, SNP are over

Switching to proportional representation similar to the European elections would be better (scaled up for the comparative size of the parliament should remove some of the anomalies). Our government would have to change from winner take all to negotiating with other parties to get things passed (similar to most EU countries)

 

The issue is that the Brexit Party currently have no manifesto beyond leave (where they ironically talk about negotiating no deal :rolleyes: ). But Farage has said he wants to replace the NHS with US style insurance, rolling back some of the maternity/paternity rights we have at the moment, one of his MEPs have talked about science finding a cure for being gay etcetc None of this is in a manifesto, but neither is a counter, so if elected with a majority he could do what he wants (there was a poll which put him winning a minority government a week or so ago). The next Tory hopefuls for PM are floating the idea of dismissing parliament early and recalling it after October so we leave with no deal as default - there's nothing in UK law to stop this (short of the queen getting involved I think) although it seems unlikely to actually happen

 

these are unusual times. 

 

but to be clear, it's not the prospect of the parties breaking down, it's the prospect of electing a group with no manifesto or policies that I find a little worrying. 

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20 hours ago, Nolder said:

I think it says something that no plan or policy except GTFO is so important to so many.

 

Except the group that want to GTFO include people who think no deal means nothing will change and therefore are voting exactly against what they want :rolleyes:

 

to be fair it's probably a relatively small number, but it includes people who are vocal enough to post under various stories on FB, different newspapers etc

 

beyond that the idea of a "clean break" is another very clever lie by the brexiteers, but anything that goes counter to this is "project fear" 

 

i dislike the leave campaign, but have to admit it was cleverly done

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"Switching to proportional representation similar to the European elections would be better (scaled up for the comparative size of the parliament should remove some of the anomalies). Our government would have to change from winner take all to negotiating with other parties to get things passed (similar to most EU countries)"

 

Of course in order to switch to  a proportional representation system you would need at least of the main to parties to vote for it which is a rather couterintuitive thought as it would simply 

 

 

"Switching to proportional representation similar to the European elections would be better (scaled up for the comparative size of the parliament should remove some of the anomalies). Our government would have to change from winner take all to negotiating with other parties to get things passed (similar to most EU countries)"

 

It's also the same system that has been quite condusive to the rise of Far Right Parties. I am not only talking about places like Poland and Humgary but am specificly adrressing the fact that Le Penn's Party is now thought to be the songle largest party and the League in Italy that has obtained power in Italy by allying itself to the Left populist meovement on certain issues. 

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On that context, take into account the new Danish elections! I have grown accustomed since watching the series of the war of 1864 that there might be a nationalist gist in Denmark, foolish of course of me, but the nationalists lost in the last elections.

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That painted people thinking Danemaerk was God's chosen country, and they could take war on Preussia or what was it without odds and come on top.

 

Ach, it is not possible to come on top. Is one going to kill everyone. Or only the men. Capitalism cannot make people work if they decide to do something else.

Edited by Graendals favourite

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Oh, Finnish government, there had been elections. The new Finnish Government is leftist-green. I think despite what I voted good the government parties change. Social democrats, and you could see the coalition partners got some, social democrats-centre-greens-leftists-swedes.

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Ministerial spots went like 7, 5, 3,2, 2, with the 5 being a 5+ with the spokesman of the parliament. These should add up to 19. Very many of the heavy slots went not to social democrats.

Edited by Graendals favourite

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Swedes have Minister of Justise, and Minister of Equality and Northern co-operation. Leftists have the ministeries of Education, and Health and social affairs. Greens have Foreign affairs, Environment and climate, and Interior affairs. Centre hase Finance, Science and culture, Trades, Defence, and Land and Agriculture. Social democrats have Prime minister, European policy, Development and foreign trade, Communal affairs, Family and basic needs, Communications, and Work minister.

 

And as I said, the second in government Centre takes spokesman of parliament, the vice chairs social democrats and Finns party.

 

And the social democrats being largest get to name the Commisioner candidate, Jutta Urpilainen they have.

 

On the ministerial slots, each party decides on its own who to put on each position. Most people in politics likely like to be ministers, so, party leaders will generally take the heavist spots. But outside that, it's for the party, or party politics, to decide who gets to be a minister.

Edited by Graendals favourite

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18 hours ago, Nolder said:

Do you think it's enough people to even be statistically relevant?

I don't think I can answer that, as I don't know how to take into account the bias of the sources I read. 

 

A clean brexit/no deal is being advertised as a solution that will end the bickering over brexit and allow us to move on. The reality is different but how many people believe what I don't know, certainly some, but statistically significant? 

 

Beyond which no deal doesn't have a majority or even that close. In head to head polls remain (currently) beats every version of brexit, but that's a problem inbuilt from the referendum lol

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14 hours ago, CUBAREY said:

 

Of course in order to switch to  a proportional representation system you would need at least of the main to parties to vote for it which is a rather couterintuitive thought as it would simply 

 

 

 

This is true, I'm not arguing it's likely just would be better

 

Now is maybe the best chance we have though, Tories are scared that vote splitting with brexit party would allow a Corbyn labour party through with a large majority in the commons, but a low vote share

 

Labour are worried about the same due to vote splitting with SNP, plaid, green, lib dem - already happened in European elections

 

It won't happen, but as I said wishful thinking

 

14 hours ago, CUBAREY said:

 

It's also the same system that has been quite condusive to the rise of Far Right Parties. I am not only talking about places like Poland and Humgary but am specificly adrressing the fact that Le Penn's Party is now thought to be the songle largest party and the League in Italy that has obtained power in Italy by allying itself to the Left populist meovement on certain issues. 

 

I don't think there's an easy answer to this, it's something that needs to be challenged on a country by country basis

 

The hope is that the next populist parties in Europe will be green, I'd be very interested to see voter breakdown of who is voting whom at the moment (but don't have time at the moment to research it lol) 

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3 hours ago, Graendals favourite said:

Swedes have Minister of Justise, and Minister of Equality and Northern co-operation. Leftists have the ministeries of Education, and Health and social affairs. Greens have Foreign affairs, Environment and climate, and Interior affairs. Centre hase Finance, Science and culture, Trades, Defence, and Land and Agriculture. Social democrats have Prime minister, European policy, Development and foreign trade, Communal affairs, Family and basic needs, Communications, and Work minister.

 

And as I said, the second in government Centre takes spokesman of parliament, the vice chairs social democrats and Finns party.

 

And the social democrats being largest get to name the Commisioner candidate, Jutta Urpilainen they have.

 

On the ministerial slots, each party decides on its own who to put on each position. Most people in politics likely like to be ministers, so, party leaders will generally take the heavist spots. But outside that, it's for the party, or party politics, to decide who gets to be a minister.

 

I do like this system lol

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4 hours ago, BFG said:

I don't think I can answer that, as I don't know how to take into account the bias of the sources I read. 

I don't think I can say this without sounding like a jerk so I want you to know I mean this respectfully, if you don't know then you shouldn't have used it as a counter argument.

 

There are always people involved in politics that don't know anything about what they support but you shouldn't look to them to delegitimize any person or policy.

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On 6/8/2019 at 10:16 AM, BFG said:

Except the group that want to GTFO include people who think no deal means nothing will change and therefore are voting exactly against what they want :rolleyes:

 

to be fair it's probably a relatively small number, but it includes people who are vocal enough to post under various stories on FB, different newspapers etc

 

 

7 hours ago, Nolder said:

I don't think I can say this without sounding like a jerk so I want you to know I mean this respectfully, if you don't know then you shouldn't have used it as a counter argument.

 

There are always people involved in politics that don't know anything about what they support but you shouldn't look to them to delegitimize any person or policy.

 

To be fair you asked my opinion on the numbers not for any actual stats. That said, I said from the start that I don't have the numbers, it's anecdotal evidence for which I have no stats and using statistics correctly is something that currently interests me/concerns me (again a different rant lol). Do I believe it's relevant, yes, can I prove it statistically, no. How relevant I don't know, even without that remain beats every actual version of brexit including no deal in all polls (that I'm aware of)

 

Additionally I didn't use it to delegitimise the policy, nor did I say that people can't hold that position, I was questioning the numbers involved that would vote that way if it came to a genuine question, and as a thought experiment I could argue this either way lol but it's probably irrelevant

Edited by BFG

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I guess the question becomes how significant is a relatively small number lol

 

But to put it in perspective, polls on the EU put remain 10% or higher than leave, that's higher than its been in a decade or more, and the trend is rising. Remain parties outvoted no deal parties at the EU elections, but by a few percent, with a significant portion of the vote uncertain, plus low turnout, so small numbers matter, probably, or don't because the chance of a second referendum is small

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2 hours ago, BFG said:

I guess the question becomes how significant is a relatively small number lol

 

But to put it in perspective, polls on the EU put remain 10% or higher than leave, that's higher than its been in a decade or more, and the trend is rising. Remain parties outvoted no deal parties at the EU elections, but by a few percent, with a significant portion of the vote uncertain, plus low turnout, so small numbers matter, probably, or don't because the chance of a second referendum is small

Even if there were to be a second referendum the intensity of feeling will win out. Since the Leave side justifiably believe that they have been betrayed I think that they would come out in mass while I think some Stay voters are so lukewarm that they will not come out. As to the polls, I simply have a very hard time believing them as they have proven so misleading in the last several years and that's really a systemic failure which I see no proof that has been corrected.

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I don't necessarily think you're wrong 

 

The point of a second referendum isn't to get the "right result" but to get clarification on what people want

 

Leave won because it lumped every leave under one heading, but it is impossible to have a leftist brexit and a rightist brexit simultaneously, let alone other variations so what do we do? 

 

The deal has been voted down and appears unpopular with the public, but nobody voted for no deal in the referendum, so there is currently no "mandate" for that

 

However you're right that the leave "betrayal" story has been so well spread that any deal will be a betrayal of the vote, even though for example Farage talked about the "Norway option" as a valid and desirable outcome before the referendum, Reese Mogg talked about how sensible a confirmation referendum would be in the run-up to the referendum etc etc etc

 

Mays deal is a hard brexit, it also honours the GFA and appears disliked because of a widespread misunderstanding about the difference for a withdrawal agreement and a future trading agreement. To me the logical thing would be to accept the agreement in principal, but extend article 50 until the future trade agreement has been agreed, recalculate how much we owe at the end. It deals with the backstop problem completely. However it won't happen because it would be a "betrayal", because getting a good deal is hard and the brexiteers said it would be easy :rolleyes:

 

The reality is we're in trouble with every option, literally everything is a betrayal of someone or everyone from this way forward and unfortunately for the country thus far the ~far right are better at spinning it the way they want

 

Regarding polls, at least for the brexit campaign the result was within margin of error, same for the hung parliament in 2017. This is a sustained and increasing difference. However it's important to note that this is before any campaign, which farage is good at, and compared to remain who have no leadership and parties that fight each other. But again, more people voted for remain parties in the EU elections than no deal parties, more people signed the online petition for revoke than voted for the brexit party, there are indications that the polls are right, but they don't account for enthusiasm to vote.

 

Not do I think that the possibility of no deal winning is a reason to not hold the referendum, if they won then when/if things go wrong at least it will be the brexiteers accountable for it 

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18 hours ago, BFG said:

I guess the question becomes how significant is a relatively small number lol

 

But to put it in perspective, polls on the EU put remain 10% or higher than leave, that's higher than its been in a decade or more, and the trend is rising. Remain parties outvoted no deal parties at the EU elections, but by a few percent, with a significant portion of the vote uncertain, plus low turnout, so small numbers matter, probably, or don't because the chance of a second referendum is small

I tend to not trust polls anymore since the 2016 election.

I saw how they were manipulated to get the answers the pollsters wanted.

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I still think it's wrong to have votes until you get the result you want btw.

Leave won and regardless of polls the vote has not been honored yet.

If and when there is a Brexit and the UK is out of the EU for a number of years then I would say hold a second vote and see where people are if you want.

If you go down the road of trying to game Leave out of their win you're shaking their faith in democracy.

They would be fully within their rights to just call for another vote, if you're lucky.

If they lose faith entirely you might have civil unrest like France.

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